@then_there_was Exactly what it is. If you need to role a 6 to win you have bad odds. Then the key is to position yourself to have has many dice rolls as possible.
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The Atlassian
701 posts
Michael Ellsberg on the education of millionaires, their relationship to risk, and the small bets they take.
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@anshublog In general the wrong mindset. Solution searching for a problem. Start with a good problem and AI might very well be part of the solution.
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Don't build an AI company.
That's like trying to build a cloud company.
Like cloud - it will be a big 2 or 3.
In stead, rebuild an industry using AI.
Be the Snowflake, Salesforce or Veeva of AI.
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@andrewchen Works reasonably well. But it often suggests stops that are insanely impractical. When prompted with how it is in feasible it does not understand and adjust.
Problem with being good most of the time is that those few times its not good, it's realllllyy off
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Using chatGPT for travel planning is 🤯🤯🤯
“Make me a detailed day by day itinerary for a road trip from X to Y emphasizing small towns and nature”
“For day 2, make an hourly itinerary with breaks for meals, coffee, and sightseeing. Give multiple options for food”
Try it…
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@balajis A prediction is not a guarantee and deviating therefore not a lie.
Increasing rates did not kill other banks. So clearly SVB managed poorly.
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There was indeed a broken promise.
And we can prove it.
Every quarter, the Fed publishes rate forecasts.
What did they forecast back in Dec 2020?
Well, their median estimate for 2023's rate was 0.1%.
But today, it's actually 4.75%.
Off by >47X!!
So any bank who bought long-term bonds on that Dec 2020 guidance got destroyed.
federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy…
James Surowiecki@JamesSurowiecki
The Federal Reserve never - never - "denied" it would raise interest rates. It said it would wait to raise interest rates until it saw signs of significant inflation. We got significant inflation - the Fed raised interest rates. There was no imaginary broken promise to banks.
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@nikitabier None of this will happen. No one cares at all outside the SV bubble... Which seems to be infuriating for those in it.
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The fact that the first bank to fall was designed to serve insufferable technologists (who can incite a run faster than any other group) will lead the government to ignore the impending doom on our doorstep.
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Coming up next week
1. Depositors at small banks move to JP Morgan
2. Everyone moves from cash to treasuries & money markets
3. Bank assets are no longer backed by deposits
4. More runs on banks
5. Socialists cheer on demise of small banks
6. Execs at big banks get mega rich
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@brightabyss Difference is I can eat 8 ounces of salmon in one sitting and I can't eat 1 ounce of chia. In fact, an ounce of chia will last you for quite a while. Not an effective source of omega-3 as a result.
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@robkhenderson This feels spot on for my experience of building a startup to exit.
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@itiscolossal Great work! Curious to understand the business case. It clearly makes a lot of sense from a charitable point of view, but hard to see how it would generate significant revenue.
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How did Colossal’s investors decide to invest in such a wild idea!? Here are three ways our #deextinction and #conservation business support ecological prosperity ⬇️
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@MartinODea10 @mkaeberlein No I don't think it's wasteful. But it's precisely re-framing as you say. Implying it's saving all these costs is probably not going to be the case. The value is likely much more qualitative than qualitative.
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@Atlassian2020 @mkaeberlein I think this question gets to the core of the reframing in people's minds that is required. @Atlassian2020
You say that like it would be wasteful. Would you suggest we stop researching cancer as 3 years later we would just have a whole plethora of diseases to throw money at?
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The fights worth fighting are always difficult.
In this case, we don't need to "win" to have an enormous impact on health and quality of life. A small attenuation of biological aging dwarfs the benefit of curing a single age-related disease like cancer.
Coban Brundo@BrundoCoban
@mkaeberlein Difficult fight since the root cause of aging is life.
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@RaisingNad Honestly don't understand the need... What on earth is wrong with simple niacin?
Yes it gives a flush reaction. Start small and built the dose up over a few weeks. Super simple and lower cost.
Performance advantage of alternatives significant at all?
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NEW: The Kardashian Conundrum: Which NAD Horse to Back? NMN, NR, or NAD+ IVs? RaisingNAD.com/the-kardashian…
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@DCDMK @CharlesMBrenner It's an analogy, nothing dishonest about that. The point being that reversing signs of aging has potentially little to nothing to do with reversing aging itself. Extreme example to illustrate that point is dyed hair from grey to black.
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@Atlassian2020 @CharlesMBrenner Don't be dishonest, its clearly visible that everything looks different not just the fur
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narrator: they did not, in fact, reverse aging
Agingdoc🩺Dr David Barzilai🔔MD PhD MS MBA DipABLM@agingdoc1
Two research teams reverse signs of aging in mice [ A balanced synopsis of two papers: Their strengths & also unanswered questions WRT their potential for ultimate translation]. 🔗science.org/content/articl… @ScienceMagazine News by @ce_offord [Senior editor for @TheScientistLLC]
El Segundo, CA 🇺🇸 English
@KuipTalk Both seem to have gained 5 kg of muscle over the break as well. As did Pedersen. Helpful.
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@UberFacts Only healthy people donate. Healthy people have less heart attacks.
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@KristerKauppi You are really doing a great job at simplifying a body of research. Keep it up!
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My current overall longevity view. Long term overexpression of either mTOR (anabolism) or AMPK (catabolism) is not aligned with longevity. The longevity challenge is to find the right balance between growth and repair. In one perfect balance point the aging process is the lowest.
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@stevemagness Looking at this and the comments, the take away seems to be that it is an unimportant metric for peak performance.
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What was Roger Bannisters resting heart rate when he became history's 1st sub-4 minute miler?
50 bpm.
The 2nd man under 4, John Landy? 43 bpm.
A fascinating look at the resting HR of a collection of history's first sub-4minute milers:
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@MichaelAlbertMD Hmm that's an interesting take. So healthy living as prevention, but if you are obese then clearly this has failed. Simply saying "stop smoking" to someone with lung cancer would be too simplistic as well.
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@Atlassian2020 Health behaviors are more important for disease prevention than treatment. They generally do not form the basis of a potent physiological treatment for people with established disease. Hence why we use nutrition to prevent cancer but generally not to treat it.
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1/ Merry 🧵-mas
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WHY DECADES OF "EAT LESS AND MOVE MORE" WAS TERRIBLE ADVICE
For starters, remember semaglutide? How could you not? Journalists have written 1000+ celebrity weight loss stories on it.
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@richcollins @pesottas I don't think that will even it out really. The study's top five meat consumers are Hong Kong, US, Australia, Argentina, Spain. The bottom five are Ethiopia, India, Bangladesh, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi. Vastly different Healthcare systems regardless of income.
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14 years difference in life expectancy between low and high-meat eaters, that's a lot !!
Dr Shawn Baker 🥩@SBakerMD
175 countries, total meat consumption associated with LONGER life expectancy!! 2022 study!! (This study also corrected for wealth and other potential confounders)-Eat meat live long!!
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