Avi

@AviKaner @piersmorgan What this weekend? And regime change doesnt happen from an air war.

@piersmorgan This is why regime change is needed, for a responsible government. Watch closely this weekend.

I’m confused. President Trump says the war is 2/3 weeks from being over and the main goal of preventing Iran from developing a nuke has been achieved. Yet they still have all their enriched uranium? 🤔

It can now be determined that both United States and Iran probably want this war to end...on terms that they find acceptable. The first part doesn't require much effort. War is bad. Let's end it. The second part will require some effort and likely some concessions from at least one party. So it becomes a question: who concedes first: Iran or Trump?

Worth adding: Every time Tehran signals, the IRGC fires. Every time Washington signals, Israel strikes. Trump cannot deliver Israeli restraint. Pezeshkian cannot deliver IRGC compliance. So the concession question has a prior question: who stops their own side from blowing up the next opening?

@EYakoby They are saving up for tonight

Iranian Ballistic Missile launches: Day 1 — 350 Day 2 — 175 Day 3 — 120 Day 4 — 50 Day 5 — 40 Day 6 — 32 Day 7 — 28 Day 8 — 15 Day 31 — 3 They’re running out of missiles and launchers.

Since Eyal posted this, Iranian ballistic missile fire has been nonstop.

So now AOC is also against providing Israel with missile defense systems? “said she would vote against “any spending on arms for Israel, including so-called defensive capabilities,” “ The Democratic Party is becoming unrecognizable

They are correct

Critics contend this is a 'post-traumatic security doctrine' after October 7 & risks overstretching the IDF. They also argue that it lacks any diplomatic input for an enduring regional settlement, erodes Israel's global support & has failed on its own terms - no strategic victory

The Netanyahu Doctrine After over 2 years of war on multiple fronts, none of which have been resolved, a new Netanyahu security doctrine is emerging in Israel: pre-emptive war against any perceived threats, buffer zones, and the constant use of force. My story @FT ft.com/content/6d0e66…

@NeriZilber @FT And it has made us less safe. Before October 7 we were safer but that was an intelligence failure and the bags of money to Hamas. Letting them cluster at the fence.

As Israel’s opposition leader Yair Lapid noted today, this celebration took place after members of the Knesset were already aware that four IDF mandatory service soldiers had been killed in Lebanon. The news was withheld to allow time to notify their families. Yet Ben Gvir and his gang celebrated their travesty of a law with champagne.

@DrNeilStone When does iran stop shooting missiles

Regime change is not possible from the air But the regime is weaker than ever. There is no Supreme Leader. Strikes will end Then the people will rise and finally free Iran 🇮🇷🇮🇷🇮🇷

@mdubowitz I am in Israel and I want the missiles to stop

Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states are now turning against Iran’s regime and want the war to continue until it is disabled or toppled, Arab officials said, though they have stopped short of committing their military. Bahrain, a close U.S. ally that hosts the Navy’s Fifth Fleet, is sponsoring the U.N. resolution, with a vote expected Thursday.

@ProfessorPape Another case of winning all the battles yet losing the war. Strategy & politics & outcomes after the war determine whether it was a victory. The Trump-Netanyahu war against Iran is looking like a defeat at this point. Regardless of what King Trump or his jesters say.

I hear you Americans comparing this to LBJ and Vietnam. That’s a shallow comparison. This is far bigger. What’s emerging isn’t just another failed intervention, it’s a structural shift. Iran’s position around energy routes gives it great leverage over the global economy. That has long-term consequences far beyond any single war. The U.S. miscalculated badly, and your stupid president owns a big part of that!

@ProfessorPape But if US forces withdrawal what will keep Iran from stopping shooting both at Israel and the Gulf? Whats the exit plan that doesnt give a victory to Iran, keep it from attacking its neighbors and leads to quiet.

If U.S. forces don’t visibly withdraw—carriers, MEUs, air assets— nothing has changed If they do withdraw, the system doesn’t stabilize It shifts to a new equilibrium of permanent instability

Trump may declare the Iran war “over" That does not mean a return to normal It means the emergence of a new baseline: Iran now has structural power over the global economy

All I have to say about Ben Gvir is this: When the Jews of Egypt were finally freed, they started to praise God when the Egyptians, who charged after them trying to re-enslave them, were drowned in the sea. God chastised them, and to this day, we spill a little wine out of our cups at the Seder to remember to have empathy and pity - even if it is our enemies being destroyed. We are not supposed to be pacifists. But neither are we supposed to cheer at the downfall of men - any men - all whom are created in the image of God. Have a death penalty for terrorists. Don't have a death penalty for terrorists. For me - the conversation SHOULD have been about this worthy debate. Instead, we're all rightfully distracted by the disgusting and disturbing actions of a man who pops open champagne and wears a pin of a noose to celebrate the death penalty. Lest you think most Israelis support this inhumanity, I will remind you that Ben Gvir was banned from serving in the IDF, and has 13 criminal convictions. Every country has more than a few politicians worthy of being embarrassed of. Ben Gvir is one of Israel's.

@JYuter 2 wrongs dont make a right

Principled: I cannot support a state that selectively executes terrorists. Incoherent: But I will support a state that financially incentivizes murdering civilians.

I literally wrote this several weeks ago. The fact Israel is focused on #Iran with its air force and intel capabilities will hurt its ability to fight a ground operation in Lebanon. Now, the IDF is confirming just that. So why the hell did you start a ground operation in Lebanon?!?!

@AmitSegal So when can the war end? I am tired of missiles at me.

“If you had a time machine,” I ask the senior Israeli minister, “and you knew a month ago that this is what would happen, would you still vote in favor of war?” “First of all, yes,” he replies. “You have to understand, this was a cold and calculated gamble. The Iranians were planning to move their entire nuclear and missile industry underground, in a way that would have made it nearly impenetrable. In any case, we would have attacked this year—but with the Americans by our side, there was no dilemma.” “The main achievements of the war are the severe damage to ballistic missiles and their production. This time, after hitting the entire production chain, it will be much harder for them to recover.” “It’s also worth remembering,” the official added, “that for years, the nightmare scenario in Israel was a multi-front war with hundreds of casualties on the home front. Last year, in ‘Rising Lion,’ in 12 days of war against Iran alone, there were 30 fatalities. Now, in a war with three times as many fronts and three times as many enemies, there are 20. What is that if not proof that ‘Rising Lion’ was not in vain—and neither was ‘Roaring Lion’?” The mission to destroy Iran’s ballistic missiles was a game changer, but not in the way Israel expected. Last Friday afternoon, Israel struck a critical part of Iran’s ballistic missile industry—its two largest steel production plants—but to their surprise, found the strike affected far more than their military. Steel facilities sit in a gray area, somewhere between military targets—like missile factories or nuclear sites—and civilian targets, such as water desalination facilities. The Iranian industry is even grayer; there is no part of the economy that the regime has not penetrated. One of the factories was sanctioned by the U.S. in 2018, described as a critical source of funding for the Basij militia. Yet its targeting by Israel was to stop it from producing the metals used in ballistic missiles, not its cashflow. Iran is the largest steel producer in the Middle East and ranks among the top 10 globally. Those two factories alone account for billions of dollars in revenue and about three percent of Iranian GDP. The impact on the economy was a side effect Israel accepted. It now seems that the side effect may have been more powerful than the primary one. According to IDF intelligence, the regime’s political leadership now believes there is no way to repair the war damage; Iran simply lacks sufficient funds. It reportedly has broken the spirit of many in the regime. The assessment is that, given a prolonged economic recovery after the war that will inevitably consume the vast majority of state budgets, massive protests will erupt. It appears that Trump is reading the same intelligence, which may explain why the threats in his ultimatums have shifted from military targets to the gray area of civilian/military infrastructure, specifically Iran’s energy and oil facilities. Still, as the minister told me regarding regime change at the outset of the war, “there were more optimistic and less optimistic assessments, but no one could guarantee that while bombs were falling on Tehran, the masses would take to the streets. There is no doubt that the war has brought the regime closer to its end—but I cannot tell you whether that will happen before Trump finishes his term, or before Netanyahu finishes his.” To read the rest of today's newsletter click the link below. open.substack.com/pub/amitsegal/…