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#BLM Giancarlo
23.2K posts
@cowboylikeoli @Alphabet_God @electionsjoe He has a pretty good case for himself already for president if he wins his re-election for governor by a lot. If he loses then he can challenge McCormick for his seat in 2030.
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@BLM_Stanton @Alphabet_God @electionsjoe Oh, agreed. I just think that would’ve been the smartest path if he wanted a better chance to win
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@DeepNotShallow Correct. I think this dude is special but the Senate is already difficult for the Dems to keep. If he wins it he needs to stay at least for a term.
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If Talarico flips Texas blue, I'm sorry, he needs to stay in that seat.
Democrats cracked Arizona. Then Georgia. If we crack Texas, you protect that at all costs until we figure out how to do it again and again.
Run for President later. Win Texas first.
Political Polls@PpollingNumbers
James Talarico takes over Mark Kelly and JB Pritzker in the odds to win the 2028 Democratic presidential primary (Polymarket)
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@TheSunKey_ @DeepNotShallow Well the reason why they cracked Arizona is because they convinced a portion of Republicans to vote for them which you wouldn't have with a progressive. So many people in Arizona voted for both Trump and Gallego.
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@DeepNotShallow I wish better democrats cracked Arizona. The senators are a grift and a run-of-the-mill corporate dem. Our governor is the least charismatic politician I've ever seen, and last I heard, the Arizona democrats (organization) are a total mess 💀
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@cowboylikeoli @Alphabet_God @electionsjoe I can see him doing it if he had no plans for 2028 but that is definitely not the case.
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@BLM_Stanton @Alphabet_God @electionsjoe Ehhhh, one can also argue that being a senator (especially from a senate seat that is destined to be highly competitive and gain nationwide media) would bring national attention. In the past 80 years 6 presidents have been senators, 4 governors
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@maeple73 @electionsjoe He has helped push through numerous bipartisan bills in PA. Most notably fixing I-95 in 12 days after a truck fire. Many Pennsylvanians view him as very competent.
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@electionsjoe Why is Shapiro popular anyways like genuinely could anyone tell me what he's done as governor so far
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@cowboylikeoli @Alphabet_God @electionsjoe AG was a huge upgrade over his previous positions. One can argue being a senator is a downgrade from being governor.
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@BLM_Stanton @Alphabet_God @electionsjoe It’s not like he’s unfamiliar with stepping up the ladder, though. He ran for AG before governor for a reason
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@Alphabet_God @electionsjoe Shapiro is the type of person that has way higher aspirations than being a senator.
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@electionsjoe Idk why he just doesn’t run for senate in 2030 over running for president tbh.
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@electionsjoe Bro is gonna crack 60% and his 2028 poll numbers are gonna skyrocket.
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@1TownSquareUSA @micah_erfan This administration is using your money to fund tax cuts for the rich. I would much rather it be used used for this than that nonsense.
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@goad @TruthorConseq12 @ElliscbIV McMorrow definitely wins if she is the nominee. But if its Stevens or El-Sayed then yes it becomes a very questionable race and I would argue less desirable odds than Ossoff winning re-election.
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@BLM_Stanton @TruthorConseq12 @ElliscbIV I’d lay 4 to 1 on a bet that McMorrow will be a Senator next year.
If Haley wins the nomination though, immediately put MI in the leans R column. Same for Abdul, but for much different reasons.
All that aside, Georgia Dems also haven’t proven themselves as incumbents yet.
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Here’s how I see the pathway for Dems to take back the Senate:
47: NC <-- floor
48: MI
49: ME
50: AK
51: TX <-- majority
52: OH
53: IA <-- ceiling
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@RacingYoshi @IAPolls2022 Yet I am sure you can't name a single thing where his vote mattered in stopping something stupid from passing. He even voted for the SAVE Act.
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@IAPolls2022 As a Dem, I'd be okay with Fitzpatrick winning. He's one of the few Republicans I'd vote for if given the opportunity.
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PA-01 POLL - Harvie (Dem) internal
🟥 Brian Fitzpatrick (inc): 48%
🟦 Bob Harvie: 42%
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PA-01 Generic Ballot
🟦 DEM: 49%
🟥 GOP: 43%
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Name ID
Fitzpatrick: 92%
Harvie: 24%
Global Strategy Group | 3/19-22 | 400 LV
politicspa.com/can-bob-harvie…
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@goad @TruthorConseq12 @ElliscbIV Michigan has some questionable candidates I think Georgia is better for Dems this cycle.
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@TruthorConseq12 @ElliscbIV I would at least add GA. I think MI is less of an issue for Dems than GA, but incumbency is clearly being weighted here.
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@1BeaverBeliever @rifnafi2eiw6f3 @davidslosttt McMorrow will most likely win in Michigan she is a fine candidate and would win the general in this national environment. In Texas it seems like Trump will endorse Paxton which is the best matchup for Talarico.
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@BLM_Stanton @rifnafi2eiw6f3 @davidslosttt Candidates in Maine, Michigan and actually Texas could be issues for the Dems
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@rifnafi2eiw6f3 @davidslosttt Only one in like 6 races they are targeting.
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@BLM_Stanton @davidslosttt Are you forgetting who's running in Maine?
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@rifnafi2eiw6f3 @davidslosttt The Dems are not going to have shitty weirdo candidates like the GOP did in 2022
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@davidslosttt I'm telling you now, don't get your hopes up. You'll end up like the GOP in 2022
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I don’t disagree that the Democratic Party brand is pretty shit right now, and I like both AOC and Mamdani.
That said, I think people need to be clear eyed about where things are currently at.
Mallory@MalloryMovies
Zohran and AOC *are* the mainstream now. It’s the establishment’s brand that is in crisis and politically toxic with voters across the political spectrum
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@hutchinson @Spanxxxy My candidate always gets left out by this polling company despite polling better than everyone on the list except for Harris and Newsom.
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@MccainGOP I highly doubt Rubio would sweep every single swing state after being tied to this horrendous administration. If he wins it would be narrower.
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My 2028 Presidential Prediction as it stands:
Rubio (R) vs Newsom (D)
Rubio wins in an election similar to 2024,
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2022 midterms were truly something else man. We had it ALL
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