Muad'Dib

32 posts

Muad'Dib

Muad'Dib

@BasedHedgy

New York, NY Katılım Kasım 2024
113 Takip Edilen35 Takipçiler
Muad'Dib
Muad'Dib@BasedHedgy·
@TMTLongShort What kind of prompts are you using on ASKB that you've found helpful?
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Just Another Pod Guy
Just Another Pod Guy@TMTLongShort·
PSA for Bloomberg users with early experience with their shitty internal AI efforts…. ASKB has gone from barely usable to my favorite tool for ramping on new names. Seems like they gave up and default to OAI now internally. Really fast too.
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Muad'Dib
Muad'Dib@BasedHedgy·
@StephenM Never take a person seriously that says “impordant”
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Boring_Business
Boring_Business@BoringBiz_·
The biggest ROI move you can make in parenting is to have your child study for competitive math and programming from a young age > Scott Wu, founder of Cognition AI. 3x gold medalist at the International Olympics of Informatics (IOI) > Alexandr Wang, founder of Scale AI. Qualified for the Math Olympiad Program in 2013 and the US Physics Team in 2014 > Dario Amodei, founder of Anthropic. Former US Physics Team member > Johny Ho, co founder of Perplexity. IOI gold medalist > Jesse Zhang, CEO of Decagon. IMO bronze medalist > Jeff Yan, co founder of Hyperliquid. Olympiad medalist
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Muad'Dib
Muad'Dib@BasedHedgy·
@PythiaR Have you looked into $MKSI or $AEIS? Debating one of those vs the semi caps directly for more upside
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Muad'Dib
Muad'Dib@BasedHedgy·
@TheEXECUTlONER_ This is missing the most important part from his TikTok. He took the kid to get a CT scan to make sure he was fine and ended up finding a small tumor in his brain. Everything happens for a reason!
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👉M-Û-R-Č-H👈
👉M-Û-R-Č-H👈@TheEXECUTlONER_·
This father took his two boys bike riding. The trail they were on said kid friendly. But as you can see, chaos erupted. As the dad was tending to his one son who had already crashed, his other son was coming down the trail. He screamed several times for him to hit his brakes but his son flew by him and kept going and wiped out. When the dad got to him, he appeared to be okay. Just to be safe, he took his boys to go get checked out. Luckily no broken bones, internal bleeding or permanent damage outside of a few cuts bruises and scrapes. The dad said he wishes he would have just reached back and grabbed him as he came down but he was busy tending to his other son. It could have been much worse. Many people are blaming the dad saying he was irresponsible and that he should have checked the trail out before they rode down it. Do you think the father is to blame? Do you think it’s just boys being boys, they’re tough and that’s life? Or, do you think the parks and recreation department is to blame for labeling the bike path as a kid’s path?
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Muad'Dib
Muad'Dib@BasedHedgy·
@jukan05 @lithos_graphein Let my team take you out - we are plugged in with the best restaurants in NYC. Anywhere you want to go!
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Muad'Dib
Muad'Dib@BasedHedgy·
@Barchart 60x? 23x on an NTM basis (S&P 500 at 21x for context). Multiples are not based on historical financials, especially when earnings are growing at historic rates.
Muad'Dib tweet media
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Barchart
Barchart@Barchart·
Semiconductor Stocks are now trading at a 60x PE, the richest valuation since the Dot Com Bubble 🚨🚨
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Michael Bento
Michael Bento@MichaelPBento·
This is your reminder that the Nasdaq has only had a 12 day winning streak 3 times in its entire history. There has never been a 13 day streak. Today is day 12.
Michael Bento tweet mediaMichael Bento tweet media
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Muad'Dib
Muad'Dib@BasedHedgy·
@jimcramer They said the PC/smartphone market is softer, not memory pricing. This is extremely misleading. "Memory price hike definitely has some impact to price-sensitive end market, especially in PC and smartphone market. But it's -- we did see a little bit softer market."
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Jim Cramer
Jim Cramer@jimcramer·
Taiwan Semi saw a "little bit softer" memory pricing.
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Muad'Dib
Muad'Dib@BasedHedgy·
@TMTLongShort A) have you checked what % of China’s energy complex is supported by Iranian oil? This is not about China…
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Just Another Pod Guy
Just Another Pod Guy@TMTLongShort·
How I frame the current Iran op: A) this is about China - it’s cheaper to demonstrate to Xi that the day after a TW invasion his economy will be choked off from energy vs losing American lives protecting the island B) there was Gulf state buy in - specifically Saudi and UAE. This included providing capital to backstop USD assets which are trumps Achilles heel C) the objective is to have control of Hormuz at the end of this - specifically veto power that doesn’t just require a parked carrier which in a conflict China can lob a thousand missiles at. You need land-based American controlled assets there permanently. Either actual Americans or proxies via Israeli or Saudi forces. D) this is not going to be Iraq or Afghanistan - there is a wide spectrum between full regime change and nation building vs small contingents of special forces taking modest strategic points on the strait and carpet bombing everything close enough to put those troops at risk E) regime change isn’t a certainty but higher likelihood than consensus - I’d put it now at 50/50. Again this assumes no boots on ground in Tehran. “Experts” saying this is impossible lack imagination and understanding of how technology has shifted over the last two decades. F) this is also political theatre - both for the American people who lost the appetite for forever wars and who need to fully internalize that Europeans are worthless as allies in their current form as well as the Europeans themselves who need to be reminded how much pain a hostile America can inflict on them if they decide China is their preferred option G) Russia-Ukraine is closely connected to all of this. On one hand Trump can accel Russian production degradation by feeding UKR intelligence on Russian refinery capacity deeper inland while at the same time can completely pull back from supporting Ukraine as part of the aforementioned political theatre… “this is not our fight” - this is why Trump didn’t ask Ukraine for help on drones. It’s a card that can be played in multiple directions. H) analysts are not wrong when they freak out about global energy prices risk. Analysts are wrong to tie that back to midterms and American voters. Trump will use executive powers to manipulate prices at the pump if necessary. I) liquidity is decreasing globally just as it’s about to increase domestically. The U.S. via swap lines and control over institutions like the IMF is the liquidity provider of last resort. Kind of like when your insurance provider starts setting Forrest fires in your neighborhood and then immediately jacks up the premiums you have to pay to protect your house. J) remove the words “fair” and “moral” from your vocabulary. We are firmly in a world of realpolitik and Americas don’t give a flying fuck if the rest of the world burns. Hegemony or bust. K) there is a dual benefit of this war being an advertisement of US military prowess and a weakening of the veneer that China has closed the gap with the US systems. This impacts how countries will act in the coming days and which sphere they opt in to. L) trumps tolerance for dead American soldiers is higher than you think. Trumps tolerance for lower stocks is higher than you think. Doesn’t mean he won’t take steps to mitigate both. You don’t fight for hegemony without being certain you can handle punches to the face. M) terror attacks on the US will be the final step for Iran before regime change. It’s higher prob than consensus thinks but it’s also not a certainty because Americans are bloodthirsty when the homeland is touched and it’s a door you can’t walk back out of. European & UAE terror attacks likely come first. N) this operation has gone better than any reasonable analyst would have predicted. Panicans are starting from the premise that every person in Washington is retarded and Trump walked into a trap with the assumption that not a single barrel of oil would be lost or soldier scratched. Retardation 🫡
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David Orr
David Orr@orrdavid·
Besides short oil, what's another way to bet on the Iranian war ending with a great result within 3 weeks? Something obvious, not convoluted. Also, anything with options?
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Muad'Dib
Muad'Dib@BasedHedgy·
@jimcramer STX and WDC have literally nothing to do with MU.
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Jim Cramer
Jim Cramer@jimcramer·
MU -i would sell MU if AMAT and KLA and LAM were pumping out equipment.. It isn't like that though. I would sell it if Sandisk, WDC and STX were ramping capacity but they aren't. That's why when the smoke clears you buy not sell
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PaneerCap
PaneerCap@PaneerCap·
bamsec was an amazing product completely ruined by alphasense
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Muad'Dib retweetledi
Joe Kent
Joe Kent@joekent16jan19·
After much reflection, I have decided to resign from my position as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, effective today. I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby. It has been an honor serving under @POTUS and @DNIGabbard and leading the professionals at NCTC. May God bless America.
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Muad'Dib retweetledi
jbulltard
jbulltard@jbulltard1·
is it not funny how we will kill innocent people dropping all these bombs across the world, yes many bad guys too,but here at home we wont even kill criminals ruining our society. If I had a choice I’d eliminate all the bad guys here long before worrying about bad guys in Iran
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Disclose.tv
Disclose.tv@disclosetv·
JUST IN - Trump admin officials told congress in a closed-door briefings that the U.S. was responsible for targeting the area in Iran where a girls' school was struck and scores of children were killed — NBC
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Parody Jeff
Parody Jeff@Parodyjeffx·
Press Sec. Karoline Leavitt: "If you don't align with the values of the United States or Israel, and you don't respect our country, our culture, our laws, and our people, you are not welcome here."
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Gregory Blotnick
Gregory Blotnick@gregoryblotnick·
someone asked, "what DOES work?" there's only one answer: REVENUE UPSIDE TO THE QUARTER. acceleration -> stock goes up deceleration -> stock goes down 100% certainty doesnt exist in markets. this is the closest you can get. [MS/BCG]: "The #1 Driver of TSR = Revenue Growth."
Gregory Blotnick tweet media
Gregory Blotnick@gregoryblotnick

things that are supposed to "work" in investing/trading but actually have a 0% success rate -sotp -buybacks -"paying a dividend will create/expand into a new yield-oriented shareholder base" -"how did IR sound" "how did the CFO sound" etc -RSI -mean-reversion of any valuation metric or multiple -debt to GDP, entitlement spending, other doomer pitches that end with "and then the 30-year goes to 12%" -"wait until the market realizes that the depreciable life of their office kitchen microwave is 5 years and not 6" -NAV discount -M&A synergies -ERP implementations (unless ur short) -if 2nd best player with 30% margins can get to 1st's 40% margins...catch up trade --> 50% upside. then you learn its structural -any/all intraday trading color esp on progress of any "big client" order - if an elephant doesnt want to leave a trail, there's infinite ways to do so thru swaps/derivatives/etc. same for all "unusual options flow," if they dont want to be seen, u aint gonna see em -"an activist could get involved here" -"email the ceo and tell him and other insiders to buy some stock" -"the AI overhang will lift as long as the quarter is okay" -short squeezes -lock-up expiration -analyst day trade / conference day trade / investor day -"I could see PE getting interested here around 5x EBITDA" -variant view on FX for the qtr -shorting Deere

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