AI/HPC MD

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AI/HPC MD

@BistrainJoseph

AI/HPC, Bitcoin mining, Health and exercise, retired MD $IREN $CIFR, $BITF, $EOSE

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AI/HPC MD@BistrainJoseph·1d

@elonmusk She should stick to bartending🤡

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Elon Musk@elonmusk·2d

Hmm

Garry Tan@garrytan

Sanders and AOC introduced a bill to pause ALL AI data center construction. 300+ local bills filed. Half of planned 2026 data centers facing delays or cancellation. Each one brings billions to local economies. The people who say they want American jobs are trying to block the biggest job creation engine since the interstate highway system.

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Small Cap Snipa@SmallCapSnipa·2d

NEW: $IREN CLOSES $3.0 BILLION CONVERTIBLE NOTES OFFERING

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Kerdos Capital@kerdoscapital·2d

$IREN I want to clear something up about IREN's financing position because I don't think enough people understand how well structured this actually is. IREN has already deployed ~$2.9B of the $5.8B $MSFT GPU buildout — roughly half — with the remaining Dell tranches scheduled to ship in H2 2026. Per the original 8-K: "GPUs and ancillary products and services, scheduled to be delivered in several tranches from March 2026, for an aggregate purchase price of approximately $5.8 billion payable in installments within 30 days of each tranche shipping." The remaining ~$2.9B will almost certainly come from the $3.6B Goldman Sachs & JPMorgan delayed-draw facility at <6% — secured by the GPUs and Microsoft's own contracted cash flows. Their financing, combined with Microsoft's $1.94B prepayment, covers roughly 95% of GPU-related capex. The balance sheet cash barely needs to be touched. The $NVDA deal ($3.4B over 5 years) will likely follow the exact same playbook — GPU-backed financing plus a potential NVIDIA prepayment mirroring what Microsoft did. And NVIDIA isn't just a customer here. They hold investment rights to purchase up to 30M IREN shares at $70 — a potential $2.1B investment — with those rights vesting per 100K GPUs deployed through 2031. They don't get the equity until they deliver. That's the kind of alignment you want to see. Now let's talk about the cash pile because this is where it gets interesting. Audited cash as of March 31 was $2.213B. Unaudited preliminary cash as of April 30 grew to $2.6B — IREN's own words from the Q3 business update. Then on May 11 they priced an upsized $2.6B convertible at 1.00% coupon with a $400M overallotment option. If fully exercised, after estimated underwriting fees, net proceeds would likely be ~$2.925B — potentially putting total cash at roughly $5.5B. And the ATM tells the same story. The original $1B ATM? Completely exhausted. Replaced in March 2026 with a $6B facility. Just over $1B has already been drawn from the new facility to date. The stock components of Mirantis (~$562M) and Nostrum (~$63M) will likely be sourced from ATM-registered shares — meaning zero additional cash drain. If so, after existing draws and both acquisitions close, the ATM would still have approximately ~$4.4B in remaining capacity. I've said it before — dilution is accretive if used right. The combined actual cash outflow from both acquisitions is only ~$107M. That barely registers against a potential $5.5B cash position. So ask yourself — why is a company whose current buildouts are essentially self-financing sitting on $5.5B in cash and ~$4.6B in ATM capacity? I don't think management is hoarding capital for fun. You don't load up like this unless something bigger is coming. Another hyperscaler, a sovereign AI deal, a transformational acquisition — I don't know what it is but the setup is clear. IREN is loading the chamber.

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Wall Street Apes@WallStreetApes·2d

This is the California nonprofit scam The "nonprofit" San Diego Humane Society is sitting on over $100 million dollars Total annual revenue: $72.9 million Salaries and compensation: $45.3 million The CEO makes $40,000+ per month It’s gets $10 million from taxpayers every year So to recap, they take in $73 million, and spend $45 million of it on salaries instead of expanding services like spay, neuter, rescue and adoption helping animals….. Nonprofits are a scam. It’s money laundering and fraud. Abolish nonprofits

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Daniel Roberts@danroberts0101·3d

March 2020. 👇 Six years later, the vision is very much alive. @MichaelDell 👊

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McNallie Money@McnallieM·4d

🚨 @IREN_Ltd upsizes convertible notes offering to $2.6 BILLION — demand was overwhelming 🚨 ⚡ Originally announced at $2.0B — upsized to $2.6B on strong institutional demand — with option to purchase an additional $400M (total potential $3.0B) ⚡ 1.00% coupon — remarkably low cost of capital for a company of IREN's scale and growth profile ⚡ 32.5% conversion premium — initial conversion price of $73.07/share vs $55.15 last close ⚡ Capped call transactions entered into at $110.30/share cap — representing a 100% premium to current share price — significant dilution protection for existing shareholders ⚡ Net proceeds: ~$2.57B (up to $2.96B if overallotment exercised) — after deducting $174.5M for capped call transactions ⚡ Settles May 14, 2026 — proceeds deployed toward general corporate purposes and working capital across the 5 GW global pipeline $2.6B raised at 1% coupon. $600M upsized from initial announcement. Capped call protection at $110/share. Institutional investors are not just buying the story — they are funding the buildout at scale $2.6B + $3.4B NVIDIA contract + $9.7B Microsoft contract + 5 GW pipeline + Mirantis + Nostrum... Is $IREN the most aggressively funded AI infrastructure company in the public markets? 👇 $IREN $NVDA #AIInfrastructure #ConvertibleNotes #DataCenter #AICloud

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IREN@IREN_Ltd·4d

AI infrastructure at scale requires real-time visibility for optimal performance and reliability. $IREN has supported @NVIDIA Fleet Intelligence as an early access partner, helping enable smarter telemetry, predictive monitoring and operational insights across next-generation GPU fleets. Read more: developer.nvidia.com/blog/introduci…

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Frans Bakker@FransBakker9812·4d

What people really don't understand — outside of OnlyFrans subscribers — is that $IREN has 2 development sites that are very close to Sweetwater 1, and almost certainly batch zero base load 👀 As you may recall, Sweetwater 2 is going to be linked to Sweetwater 1 with a direct fiber loop 🔃 Well imagine that there are not 1, but 2 other development sites in the pipeline, that are much, much, closer to Sweetwater 1, and one of them is a potential 1GW+ site 🤯 So when you think of Sweetwater as a campus, and a flagship deployment for the DSX architecture of UP TO 5GW ‼️, you can imagine how attractive this campus is for $NVDA, future customers, but especially for $IREN to develop, and monetize. Where other AI cloud providers are scrambling for power, turbines, and permits — IREN is able to continue to draw more power towards the Sweetwater Flagship Campus in an organic, year by year, roll-out of their portfolio, without sacrificing latency, work force, local support, regulatory approval, tax incentives, or time to compute. Make no mistake, Stargate is a complete joke compared to Sweetwater. $IREN IS IN THE PROCESS OF BUILDING THE LARGEST, INTERCONNECTED, AI DATA CENTER CAMPUS IN THE WORLD. 2GW is just the beginning 🤫

mon@moninvestor

$IREN being named the flagship deployment for NVIDIA's DSX architecture at the 2GW Sweetwater campus is a massive deal. This validates IREN's vertically integrated approach across power, land, data centers and GPU operations, exactly what NVIDIA needs in a partner to scale AI infrastructure globally. This gives IREN the credibility to unlock institutional financing, attract hyperscaler deals, and secure priority GPU allocation. It's in NVIDIA's own interest for IREN to succeed, because IREN SW1 site is now expected to be their flagship showcase for DSX architecture.

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𝐀𝐠𝐫𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐚 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬@Agrippa_Inv·4d

$IREN's new convertible offering is arguably the strongest one to date. - Size: $2.6b, up to $3b if extension option is exercised - Conversion Premium: 32.5% - Annual Coupon: 1% - Maturity Date: December, 2033 These are incredible terms! The only prior note offering that comes close to this is 'Convert 3', which on paper may look stronger (0% Coupon /42.5% Conversion). But keep in mind, that convert's size is ~1/3 of today's and expires 2 years prior. Generally speaking, the more capital you raise & the further out the maturity date, the worse terms you get. I'm a very happy shareholder today. This offering proves once again that $IREN's finance team is amongst the best in the industry.

Frans Bakker@FransBakker9812

$IREN Prices Upsized $2.6 Billion 1% Convertible Senior Notes Due 2033 @IREN_Ltd announced the pricing of its upsized private offering of $2.6 billion in 1.00% convertible senior notes due 2033 (increased from the previously announced $2 billion). Key Terms: - Coupon: 1.00% (paid semi-annually) - Maturity: December 1, 2033 - Initial Conversion Price: ~$73.07 per share (32.5% premium to the $55.15 closing price on May 11, 2026) - Conversion Rate: 13.6848 ordinary shares per $1,000 principal - Capped Calls: Entered with a cap price of $110.30 (100% premium) to reduce dilution upon conversion Proceeds & Use: - Expected net proceeds: $2.57 billion ($2.96 billion if the $400 million option is fully exercised) - ~$174.5 million to fund capped call transactions - Remainder for general corporate purposes and working capital The notes settle on May 14, 2026. This move provides IREN with significant low-cost capital to support its AI cloud and data center growth.

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FreeFromMatrix@ViralMuzik1989·5d

$IREN vs $CRWV capital strategy: Blue Pill ($CRWV): Take massive debt(~$21B+), live in blissful ignorance, pay $1.5B+ interest yearly, stay trapped in the simulation. Red Pill ($IREN): Accept smart equity raises, face short-term dilution, secure real power + execution freedom in the AI supercycle. Most will choose the blue pill. The awakened choose red. ⚡

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The Big Degen@TheBigDegen·8 May

$IREN’s Mega Announcements Have Supercharged Its Path to Hyperscaler Status 🚀🚀🚀 1. NVIDIA Strategic Partnership: The Ultimate Validation & Blueprint - Up to 5GW of NVIDIA DSX-aligned AI infrastructure across IREN’s global pipeline. This is full collaboration on NVIDIA’s reference architecture for next-gen “AI factories.” - Flagship deployment expected at IREN’s massive 2GW Sweetwater campus in Texas. - NVIDIA receives a 5-year warrant-like option to buy up to 30M shares at $70 (potential $2.1B investment) … that’s skin in the game + massive credibility. This isn’t a one-off GPU order. It’s NVIDIA endorsing IREN’s vision and giving it the technical + strategic playbook to scale like the big hyperscalers. 2. $3.4 Billion AI Cloud Contract with NVIDIA - 5-year deal supplying managed GPU cloud (starting air-cooled Blackwell) for NVIDIA’s own internal AI/research workloads. - Initial ramp in ~60MW of existing capacity (Childress, Texas), starting early 2027. Immediate high-margin revenue + real-world proof of IREN’s ability to deliver at scale. 3. Nostrum Acquisition: Europe + Power Moat - Adds ~490MW secured grid-connected power in Spain + gigawatt-scale pipeline and local teams. - Total secured power now ~5GW globally, perfectly aligned with the NVIDIA framework. The Hyperscaler Thesis in Action: - IREN now controls one of the largest, renewable-rich, grid-connected portfolios on the planet! - NVIDIA partnership provides the tech stack, customer access (AI-native startups, enterprises, and more), and blueprint to build and operate at hyperscale. - Combined with existing Microsoft deal, this creates diversified, sticky revenue streams: cloud services, colocation, and build-to-suit. - Global footprint (US + Europe + Australia) positions IREN to capture exploding demand for AI training, inference, and agentic workloads. Today marks IREN’s transition towards a serious contender in the hyperscaler league. $IREN … LFG 🔥🔥🔥

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Jim Liu@jiahanjimliu·8 May

$IREN: Asking the Tough Questions Shoutout to @InfraThesis who has a fair takes and calls out hard questions about why IREN missed on AI Revenue. 1. Large revenue miss: due to both BTC and AI. BTC racks were taken down ahead of time to de-risk but GPU deliveries went from Feb -> March -> April -> Late April when Dan posted a picture of them powered on. 33.6m revenue is a miss but shouldn't be compared to 120m ARR when GPUs were still being delivered to Prince George this quarter. $NBIS is guiding for 7-9B ARR and 3.4B revenue in 2026, is coming their 3.4B to their 7-9B revenue a miss of over 50%? No, because all Clouds are guiding by ARR. Never the less, 81.25m was expected revenue and it was a huge miss to 33.6m. These problems will be improved next quarter by: 1. Nvidia Partnership -> GPU Deliveries 2. Mirantis Acquisition -> Commissioning These were the two underlying factors in the miss. IREN did not miss on what it's good at: getting DCs up and transformers to energize SW1. 2. Horizon 1 delivery time line miss due to same reasons as Prince George above. The fact that they still can guide handing over H2-4 in CY 2026 is as a result of their build rate of the actual DCs is robust with H2 being completed and H3 shells up. Can verify from picture 1 provided by Frans subgroup. 3. Yes, NBIS also emphasizes ARR and revenue is always lower. Last time this happen on NBIS earnings call, I just said GPU deliveries were late and revenue backloaded. No fault to NBIS, even Nvidia Partners are having late deliveries because this is a very tight bottleneck on HBM/Storage, just look at SK/SamsungMU/SNDK pricing power. 4. Yes, we really need to see the H2 revenue ramp. I want them to announced H1 and H2 handoff next quarter with the Nvidia Partnership and Mirantis acquisition. 5. ARR-to-revenue recognition gap: Yes this is same exactly situation in CRWV/NBIS last earnings. NBIS guides it's own ARR for 2026 to be 7-9B and revenue to be half of that at 3.4B. In a very fast growth phase, forward guidance is often usesd.

The Infrastructure Thesis@InfraThesis

$IREN Q3 FY26 Direction right, timing off. ═══ The Good ═══ 1. NVIDIA 5-year $3.4B contracted revenue - Childress 60MW air-cooled Blackwell + managed GPU cloud - $11.3M/MW unit pricing = +16% premium vs MSFT's $9.7M/MW - Not an option but 5-year locked-in revenue ($0.7B annual ARR) - Revenue recognition starting 2027 2. Elevated to NVIDIA's top 3 Neocloud picks - NVIDIA's chosen 3 to commoditize hyperscalers - CRWV, NBIS, and now IREN - "Selected partner" status, beyond mere customer - AI Factory design + DSX standard validation + ecosystem coordination 3. Commanding financing cost advantage - 95% of MSFT capex funded at ~3% blended rate ($1.9B zero-interest prepayment + GPU debt 6% weighted avg) - 1.5% convertibles, 6% GPU debt - Compare: CRWV 9% corporate. NBIS also pricier than IREN - Self-built datacenters = capital efficiency vs outsourced peers 4. 5GW global platform materialized - US 4.5GW + Spain Nostrum (490MW + GW+ pipeline) - Australia entry accelerating (APAC 4.8B population market) - 2026 480MW → 2027 1,210MW → 2030 5GW buildout - ERCOT batch 0 priority secured 5. Mirantis acquisition = full-stack AI Factory evolution - 650 engineers, 1,500 enterprise customers track record - Founding ISV partner of NVIDIA AI Cloud Ready - Cordon AI platform: bare-metal/VM/Kubernetes integration - From GPU rental → comprehensive cloud services - Direct support for NVIDIA contract delivery 6. Sophisticated NVIDIA $2.1B option structure - Fully vests only upon 600k GPU deployment - No immediate capital inflow = no immediate dilution - NVIDIA only benefits if IREN succeeds - $70 strike = +17% premium to current - Effectively option ↔ GPU delivery priority barter ═══ Real Bad ═══ 1. The real magnitude of the revenue miss - Street consensus $220M missed by -34% (actual $144.8M) - But the real shock vs company's own guidance: - Last year: "ARR $500M by now" guide - Actual quarterly AI revenue $33.6M = ~$120-150M ARR - About 1/4 of own promise (-75% miss vs own guide) 2. Horizon 1 delivery timeline pushed - Microsoft handoff slipped to Q3 CY2026 - Clear delay vs street consensus - Surface explanation: HBM/storage industry shortage - But mgmt didn't clearly address the why on the call - First tranche = IREN's first liquid-cooled trial, learning curve start - Risk: contract clauses if cure period also missed 3. Management language pivot - Previously: emphasized "ARR" - Now: emphasized "contracted revenue" + 2027/2028 plans - Signal that mgmt is aware of ARR guidance miss - ARR definition specifies "delivered, commissioned, and in service" - But 2026 $3.7B ARR target definition omits "in service" - Intentional wording difference = potential ARR-to-revenue gap 4. Time-to-compute moat in question - IREN's core competitive edge = converting compute to revenue fast - Missing own targets puts the moat itself in doubt - Even bull-side analysts called it "huge disappointment" - H2 2026 revenue recovery = moat existence test 5. ARR-to-revenue recognition gap - Three stages: delivered → commissioned → in service - Revenue recognition starts at in-service - Hyperscalers like Microsoft have lengthy acceptance protocols - Security, network, monitoring, performance criteria gates - Achieving $3.7B ARR ≠ $3.7B revenue in 2027 ═══ The Question ═══ If "time to compute" is the moat, missing your own targets puts the moat itself in question. H2 2026 AI revenue recovery is the real test. Direction (NVIDIA elevation, 5GW global, AI Factory standardization) is right. Tempo (-75% vs own guide, Horizon 1 delay) is off. NFA. Personal analysis log.

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Scludweed@scludweed·8 May

I’m sorry, I am over the freaking Moon after the week we’ve had in IREN. If you’d have offered me, before last week, any of the three major announcements we received (energization, acquisition and NVIDIA as a new Partner and Customer) I would’ve shit myself with glee. I don’t give a rats ass about light revenues as the flywheel is taking somewhat longer to crank up. That’s just me, a huge stockholder with his ultimate investment thesis firmly in place. See y’all at $150 soon. 😎

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McFly@ilzmcfly·8 May

The condescending tone around $IREN needs to stop. They signed a way better deal than the last one. The secured a strong partnership with $NVDA They added 500MW of secured capacity. They added 650 Software Engineers through their Mirantis Acquisition with $150 ARR/20%CAGR/Trailing Cashflow positive for $630M in stock People wanted a blow off the top deal. That will happen at the right time. Let them cook 🇦🇺🔥

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AI/HPC MD@BistrainJoseph·8 May

@BitcoinAIGuy 100% agree! I was bullish at 5. I am equally bullish now at 60!

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BitcoinAIGuy@BitcoinAIGuy·8 May

I think my $550 target over 3 years may be too bearish

Rick@ricktonyis

@mcF_dan Yeah that’s the same number I got for 2028 between $500-$750 a share… should be $150 by November December and $250-$300 next year

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IREN@IREN_Ltd·8 May

$IREN today reported its Q3 FY26 results. Key highlights: ✔️$3.4bn AI Cloud contract & 5GW strategic partnership with @nvidia ✔️2026 expansion to $3.7bn ARR on track ✔️2027 expansion to 1.2GW of AI Cloud capacity in build ✔️2028+ expansion across 5GW secured power underway ✔️Acquisition of Nostrum adds 490MW in Spain and GW+ development pipeline ✔️Additional development projects in Australia advancing toward connection agreement Presentation: iren.com/api/media/file… Read more: iren.gcs-web.com/static-files/9…

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Jim Liu@jiahanjimliu·8 May

$IREN: Most Important Earnings Call Takeaway "Their rights to invest only vest as Nvidia GPU infrastructure is deployed across IREN campuses and only fully vest upon deployment of 600k GPUs." - Dan Rboerts at 6:40-6:55 of Earnings Call: edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/8oxdtymr/ IREN's Biggest H1 2026 Problem IREN's biggest H1 2026 problem is getting GPU deliveries on time due to HBM/Storage shortage - just look at $MU and $SNDK to figure out what the problem is: HBM and storage are a black market right now. GPUs for H1 came in late April and burn in and commissioning is either very backed up or GPUs deliveries is still incomplete for the full 50MW. Good news is that H2-4 will be handed off CY 2026. How is this possible? Well, IREN is effectively paying Nvidia with call options of IREN at $70 strike and payment is tied to delivery of 600k GPUs. Nvidia is essentially putting IREN on the delivery roadmap to get GPU which include on-package HBM and on-board storage. Nvidia will still likely kick it to Dell/Lenovo to finish out the server integration but Nvidia obviously controls all the shipments. IREN Going Forward The most important takeaway today is that Nvidia will now have 3 Neoclouds for GPU delivery prioritization: $CRWV, $NBIS, $IREN in it's attempt to commoditize the hyperscalers. Written in contract by trading IREN options for Nvidia delivery scheduling for 600k GPU deliveries. By being included $IREN will get GPUs on time for it to expand and sign contracts going forward: 480MW by 2026, 1.21 GW by 2027, and 5GW by 2030.

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𝐀𝐠𝐫𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐚 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬@Agrippa_Inv·8 May

That’s a pretty backwards take IMO. It’s clear to me that $NVDA wanted $IREN exposure for entering into 1) a direct cloud deal and 2) a strategic partnership spanning 5 GW. As was the case with $CRWV & $NBIS, Nvidia is used to neoclouds just willingly giving up equity. However, $IREN isn’t giving up equity for current spot prices, but negotiated a $70 price tag. Nvidia is obviously not going to purchase 30 million shares at $70, if spot is at sub $60. That would be negligent on their end. As a result, this was structured in the form of warrants that can be exercised over the coming years. On top of that, in the case of $IREN, Nvidia will only be rewarded warrants if they delivery x amount compute (warrants are pegged against GPU deliveries). Thus, Nvidia only gets these warrants if they actually delivery GPUs, aligning their incentives. And max dilution is pegged at $70, which is ~20% over spot at the time of the announcement. $IREN ‘s management negotaited this beautifully.

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AI/HPC MD@BistrainJoseph·8 May

@TheKamaHsutra Just continue gaming and check your IREN share price once a year as it continues higher😆

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Kamahsutra@TheKamaHsutra·7 May

Was there ever a doubt that a partnership between $IREN and $NVDA would happen? Nah... there was a cult that was convinced this would happen for a long time now, it was inevitable.

Kamahsutra@TheKamaHsutra

No, I actually don't think that is too optimistic. $IREN's SW1 can be a the first large scale 1GW+ deployment of the new Vera Rubin CPX designed for 800VDC from the ground up. developer.nvidia.com/blog/nvidia-80… Why does Jensen keep talking about 1GW+ AI factories? How many 1GW+ sites are there that will be energized by the time Vera Rubin CPX is release around end of 2026? nvidia.com/gtc/dc/keynote… This rendering doesn't have the wind turbines in the background that SW1 would have, but it is definitely from a Southwestern US climate. 🤔😂

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Keşfet

@elonmusk @MichaelDell @IREN_Ltd @NVIDIA @InfraThesis @BitcoinAIGuy @nvidia @BarackObama