Sea₿az

@_onlyscott Carlo and Guus

Without mentioning JOSE MOURINHO and XAVI ALONSO Guess a coach that has coached both Real madrid and Chelsea LEVEL: VERY DIFFICULT 🤯

@internpierre On top of that Europeans don’t give a flying fuck about the US, it’s a one way obsession.

The WSJ wants to know "what happens when Europeans find out how poor they are." I'm a European running a family office / living in Monaco. Let me run the numbers for Joseph Sternberg. Spoiler: per-capita GDP is the most misleading stat in this entire debate.🧵

@ZynxBTC I learned that people pretending to have sold btc during the bull and posting about it in the bear usually have gambled away everything. They’re still looking for validation they did well, but in reality they are back to square one.

Probably the worst thing about this Bitcoin bear market is just how many people we lost. Big accounts who have capitulated because the price action has been too difficult to bear. "Hodlers" turned to traders and high time preference investors. I have no care in the world about what you do with your own capital, but if you build your profile in the space as a Bitcoin ideologue who is in it for more than just the FIAT gains then expect to get pushback when people notice your pivot. In this case I am talking about @stackhodler who has blocked me for a comment I made on his March 22 post where he said the following: "I've moved my CHF into the most stable Swiss banks in existence with unlimited state guarantees. I moved my physical gold into high security non-bank safety deposit boxes, along with some physical CHF". So much for being a Sovereign Individual lol. Like I said, I have no qualms with what people to do with their capital but it does feel fraudulent to pretend you're here for the "revolution" and to escape the shackles of the FIAT system, only just to run back to it when price action is poor. Many such cases this bear market, unfortunately. Only those with true conviction remain.

@AdamBLiv Mixing a deep ITM/ATM 2028 strike with a slightly nearer 2027 or a bit OTM 2028 to reduce my timing risk and give more flexibility to roll or trim if MSTR overshoots early.

Crazy opportunity with MSTR June 2028 LEAPs right now. Potential 25x without Strategy buying any more Bitcoin. (lol) It's ~$5,000 for the $175 strike price contract. If Bitcoin simply just reverts back to the Power Law regression fit line, Bitcoin is $300k in June 2028. BTC today: $66,000 BTC in June 2028: $300,000 BTC multiple: 300,000 / 66,000 = 4.545x That is a +354.5% BTC return. If MSTR is 33% amplified Bitcoin, then I’m treating that as: MSTR return = BTC return × 1.33 So +354.5% × 1.33 = +471.5% Starting from MSTR = $126.40, that gives a projected MSTR price of about: $722.43 For your June 2028 $175 call: Expiration value = ($722.43 - $175) × 100 = $54,743 intrinsic value If you paid $5,000 for the contract: Net profit: about $49,743 Return on premium: about +994.9% $5,000 turns into about $54,743 total value at expiration, for roughly a 10.95x outcome, assuming MSTR actually delivers that 33% amplification all the way up. That is not including them buying ANY more Bitcoin. What if they expand to 2.0 mNAV in the Bitcoin bull market? This is where the rocket fuel gets injected. If today’s valuation implicitly reflects ~1.0x mNAV baseline (simplification for modeling), then: mNAV expansion to 2.0x = another 2x on price $722 × 2 = ~$1,444 MSTR Final intrinsic value: ($1,444 − $175) × 100 = $126,900 Final value: $126,900 Cost: $5,000 → Profit: ~$121,900 → Return: ~+2,438% What just happened conceptually is you stacked three convex layers: BTC: 4.5x MSTR amplification: 1.33x mNAV expansion: 2.0x That’s effectively: 4.545 × 1.33 × 2 ≈ 12.1x on MSTR And your option turns that into ~25x on your capital And remember, this isn't modeling in them accumulating Bitcoin over the next two years... this is leverage + multiple expansion on the capital they already have. Not financial advice, this is financial entertainment. Already stacked to the gills with ASST Jan 2028 LEAPs but I like this idea to give me more time for BTC to moon. Some mouth-watering entries here for those with conviction in Bitcoin.

@SaniExp Must be password of one of the wallets?

Looks like the Irish CAB and Europol were able to crack one of the 12 keys, no explanation of how they did it irishtimes.com/crime-law/2026…

@TFTC21 @anasalhajji 😂😂😂 most retarded thing I’ve read in a while.

The US didn't just attack Iran. It closed the Strait of Hormuz itself, and nobody's talking about the real reason why. @anasalhajji, one of the most respected energy analysts in the world, just published an extraordinary breakdown of what's actually happening in the Strait of Hormuz. The short version: Iran didn't close it. Insurance companies did. And the US has every incentive to let it happen. Here's what actually occurred. Emails were sent to oil and LNG tankers claiming to be from the IRGC, saying the strait was closed. No official Iranian statement backed this. Nobody knows who actually sent the emails. But within hours, European insurance companies canceled policies or jacked premiums so high that tanker operators couldn't move. Cargo ships and container vessels passed through fine. Nothing happened to them. Only oil and LNG tankers were affected. Why? Notably, the administration has not criticized the insurance companies or pushed back on rising oil prices, a departure from its usual stance of vocally opposing anything that raises energy costs for American consumers. Meanwhile, Venezuelan oil was pre-positioned in US ports before the crisis began, specifically to replace Iraqi crude that would be cut off by a Hormuz closure. That doesn't happen by accident. The 2025 National Security Strategy document lays out the framework: US dominance runs through AI, and AI runs through cheap, abundant energy. The strategy is to make energy cheap domestically and expensive for competitors. To do that, you need control of global chokepoints: Panama Canal, the Red Sea, Greenland's Arctic passage, and now Hormuz. The Hormuz disruption accomplishes several goals at once. It forces Asian companies to abandon long-term LNG contracts with Qatar and the UAE in favor of American suppliers. It cripples competitor access to fertilizer exports (33% of global supply transits Hormuz). It drives chip manufacturers to reshore to the US. And Trump's offer to provide Navy escorts and US-backed insurance for tankers gives America indirect control over the strait indefinitely. The biggest beneficiaries of a closed Hormuz are the US and Russia. The biggest losers are Europe, Asia, and the Gulf states themselves. Iran is the excuse. Energy dominance is the goal.

@Dearme2_ Surfing. It’s that simple really. You, a board and the force of nature. Nothing else.

During your darkest period, what was the best thing you ever did for your mental health?

@_Checkmatey_ You’re the only on X that still spreads solid btc signal.

Jane Street didn't suppress the Bitcoin price folks. HODLers all did. It's just not that hard, stop summoning your inner salty goldbug but blaming manipulators. People. Sold. A. Fucktonne. Of. Spot. Bitcoin.

@_Checkmatey_ 👏👏👏

Every mean reversion model, from technical to onchain is trading within bottom formation levels, typically seen after the price capitulation event (which Dec 2018 and Jun 2022 were examples of). Both sell-offs in Nov and Feb are in the hall of fame of Realised Loss onchain. Not the biggest in relative terms, but by far the largest in USD terms, over $7.5 Billion over just those two days. We're in the bottom 20% of the most conservative, and bottom 5% of the most aggressive deviations from any sane anchor model. Either Bitcoin is dead, will no longer mean revert, and all your models are broken... ...Or you should be ignoring the bears, staying very humble, and quietly DCA stacking sats from here on. Price pain is largely behind us imho, however time pain likely remains. It will claim many who don't want to see the rest of the movie. We often experience retests of the lows, leaky price charts, powerful rallies...and then lower lows...often with a final capitulation event to book-end the time-pain chapter of the bear. In my view, even though this sounds horrific, it is unlikely we have anywhere near the aggressive rate of decline, nor depth of decline as has already occurred in Nov'25 and Feb'25. The hard part of the drawdown is most likely behind us. The difference between $17.6k in June 2022, and $15.6k in Dec 2022...was six months (the price delta is frankly irrelevant for any long-term investor). There is no rush, but these Bitcoin prices are temporary. How temporary we do not know, but it's tremendously oversold, and there are few statistics I am aware of that suggest otherwise. The bears will spend the next few months liquidating their trading accounts trying to short the bottom of a painful chopsolidation range. The bulls will do the same by getting too hopeful at the range highs. Investing is a game of picking great assets, accumulating at low prices, and then being patient as fuck. The 200-week MA is at $58.5k, a mere bees dick below the $60k low we already set. There are still folks out there who want to haggle over the missing 3%. The Realised Price is at $55k, which from first principles, should stop being visited over time, as it deviates due to unrealised profit in lost coins (a topic for another day). We've already cleared every excess leverage level down to $60k, no stop losses survived February's move. This is the time to stay humble, and stack sats. If you're not actively accumulating Bitcoin at this stage, then when? Don't fantasise over lump summing the exact bottom wick. You will be too scared to do it on the day. Buy the whole bottom. Dollar cost average for the next six months, and remove your emotions from the problem at hand. A final note; ignore the bears. They will perpetually revise their targets lower and lower, and get plenty of clicks for doing so. Humans love bear-porn because we're wired to avoid risk. This is literally what a de-risked setup looks like for Bitcoin. Ignore the bears, they lack ambition.

@caprioleio Lol a few weeks late, everyone moved on.

I've been through three cycles. I've seen Bitcoin plunge 50% in 24 hours. I've see it at $3K when exchanges completely turned off. I've seen dozens of hacks and frauds, including the Madoff level fraud that was FTX. All this time, I was never concerned about Bitcoin's future. In those dark moments I was excited about the value opportunities. Today, I am more concerned than ever before about Bitcoin's future. The Bitcoin Core team is fighting the last war. Like deploying horses against machine guns in WW1. Or trenches against Blitzkrieg in WW2. Horses and trenches are Bitcoin's current cryptography. Machine guns and Blitzkrieg are Quantum, and Bitcoin today does not stand a chance. It must adapt and upgrade. The severity of the Quantum threat and the mind-blowing level at which it is being dismissed is troubling.

Took me a day to get @openclaw running on my old laptop but I got there in the end! Just scratched the surface but this is mind blowing. One of those aha moments for me. @steipete 🦞

@Bitcoin_Teddy I would be worried if the volatility was gone. The way it behaved over the last year or so worried me way more than this little bit of violence.

Can anyone please explain me in simple words what the f*ck is going on with Bitcoin???

Right I’m back to buying $MSTR again. I only see people complaining so no need for any further technical analysis. “I buy when you cry”…never lets you down.

@TheBTCTherapist Mildly bullish

Brace for the dump of a lifetime. $BTC

@mikemcglone11 Clueless clown 🤣

Typical Bitcoin $50,000 Reversion May Guide Deflation - Bitcoin appears on track to revisit its yearly pivot around $50,000, with deflationary implications. The graphic shows the crypto's close connection with the S&P 500 and a key reason Bitcoin might fall further: S&P 500's 120-day volatility at 11.3% on Nov. 26 is near its lowest at year-end since 2017. Full report on the Bloomberg here: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/t… {BI COMD} #gold #bitcoin #stockmarket @BBGIntelligence

@brett_eth Dude 🤣🤣🤣🤣

@Pledditor Everything that guys touches turns to shit. He’s probably the biggest clown in the space.

Almost -99% down for $NAKA We are now approaching LUNA-tier losses I would love to know what was going through Steven Lubka's head when he launched his "Paper Bitcoin Summer" campaign and got everybody hyped at 10x mNAV. I honestly can't tell if he's evil or a just giant moron

@TheBTCTherapist mNAV is just some made up bs metric. Its a garbage stock. No clue why anyone is interested in this shit instead of the real thing.

JUST IN: Strategy’s market cap is now officially below their total Bitcoin net asset value (< 1.0 mNAV). The market is giving you a discount on Strategy’s Bitcoin. What do you think this means? 🤔