Fee Developer
5.7K posts

Fee Developer
@Brian7270
Real Estate Development Futures Options




Today's Supreme Court decision on race-based redistricting is bigger than people even realize. I've watched this play out for two decades, mostly in Chicago. The argument for race-based districts was always that they protect minority representation. What they've actually done is inflame segregation, and not just for voters but also for the elected officials. When, say, ~90% of one racial category dominates a legislative district, the lawmaker representing it is incentivized against interacting with the world beyond it. They don't have to find common ground because there is simply no coalition to build. Alienation is a requirement of the job. Now imagine a Chicago aldermanic map drawn for compactness rather than identity: a 65/20/15 district. You literally would not be able to win a seat on city council by pandering to one single group. You'd actually have to go talk to people about how they actually live and things they care about: schools, safety, jobs, taxes. Working-class voters of every background want roughly the same things. Identity-based districts function to paper over that. But a blended district would necessitate it. The superficial grievance model of left-wing politics relies on the existence of racially sorted districts. Today's ruling makes that sorting harder. That's what matters here.


BREAKING: A source close to Ghalibaf says US/Israeli force concentration around Iran "has reached maximum level," warning that the US will launch "an intensive surprise attack via strategic bombers and aircraft carriers targeting energy facilities," with Iran ready to respond "immediately and with excessive force using weapons that exceed expectations," targeting Israel and oil reserves in the Gulf.










Absent any black swans over the weekend, if the VIX ends with a daily close in the red while the VIX1D is +30% then I am favoring a gap up Monday on SPY to 660 that will trap longs and produce a bearish engulfing day that has the potential to bring us back down to 640. The MOC buyside imbalance supports this as well. As a result I am closing any lotto puts I have for a small loss and I am going to wait in cash until we hit 660 to jump back into puts.





















