Bag Holder

Remember that, as articulated by BRICS X, the regime's victory condition is a single IRGC member surviving.

I know a lot of people don't like the Iran war but it is funny how Trump saw the Iranians block Hormuz and thought to himself, 'That's a great idea, I'm going to run with that.'

HUGE.

If I can, I will buy my son a nice car to drive safely and try to get him a job where he earns tons of money without much (physical) work. But in summer holidays he has to chop wood for free for his grandma.

“Heute hat das alles den Charakter eines überforderten mittelständischen Geschäftsführers, der Angestellte um ein Darlehen für die Firma anfleht” Was für ein Wortschmied, dieser nougat

Früher hat man den Untergang in Deutschland wenigstens noch zelebriert Heute hat das alles den Charakter eines überforderten mittelständischen Geschäftsführers, der Angestellte um ein Darlehen für die Firma anfleht

One of the more important personal lessons for me has been to fully tune out the macro news noise. Some people genuinely extract valuable insights from it and make better decisions because of it. I’m not one of them and I think most people would be better off not dealing with it at all. People think they have to engage with it, that being a serious investor means having a take on Iran, the Fed, China, whatever. Most people are just confusing feeling informed with being effective. It rarely changes what they actually do but it makes seem feel like serious people.

Hahaha, the Chancellor of Germany is the latest propagandist to be featured by Islamic Regime media. What an achievement.

The Iran oil story we are missing: this isn’t just about sanctions and the blockade cutting exports and shut in oil wells. 1/ The regime spent over $100 billion directly on a nuclear program that generates 2% of Iran’s electricity. That money was drained from National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), the same company whose workers earn ~$80–140/month against Iran’s own official poverty line of ~$227/month. The people responsible for maintaining the most critical infrastructure in the country can’t afford to live on their salaries. The infrastructure reflects it.

How is it that we tend to be able to spot things before lots of others in weird segments? Well, we’re going to show you in a webinar in a few weeks. Hit like so I can ping you a sign up link for the date.

@TaviCosta No one told you this couldn’t happen, stop pretending you are some kind of contrarian

Oops. I was told this could never happen either. Don’t blame it on droughts. This is a second-order effect of the surge in energy prices. open.substack.com/pub/tavicosta/…

Es ist egal, was Merz sonst macht: solange man weiterhin Männer als Frauen bezeichnen muss, kein Atomstrom aus der Steckdose kommt und auch keine Remigration stattfindet, die aussieht wie die umgekehrte Berliner Luftbrücke, kommen die fehlenden 15 % CDU-Wähler nicht zurück.

BREAKING: New footage from January protests in Iran shows Islamic Republic forces opening live fire on Iranians taking cover inside of a hospital. Spain responded to these crimes against humanity by opening an embassy in Tehran.

Market panicking about AI demand while GCP Gemini enterprise token consumption surged 60% over the last three months

🚨🚨 🚨فوری: بسته شدن صرافی های میدان فردوسی تهران و حمله نیروهای امنیتی به دلالان و بازاری های تهران. دستگیری صراف های مختلف در سطح شهر تهران آغاز شده.. همچنین شاهد توقف نمایش قیمت ارز در وبسایت طلا و ارز ایران هستیم و هجوم مردم به طلا فروشی ها و صرافی ها و ترس از آینده مبهم گزارش شده است. احتمال قیام، اعتصاب، و اعتراض و شورش بازاری های سراسر کشور در ظرف چند روز آینده بالاست..

pushing with what, words?

$KOS $TLW Tullow reported its well-known FY results yesterday, after Kosmos had already announced its annual earnings. Tullow also posted an impressive Q1 performance, which bodes well for Kosmos's Q1 report scheduled for next Tuesday, the 5th. We do not own bonds or stocks in Tullow, but it is important to monitor them since it operates the Ghana assets in which Kosmos has a significant stake. However, Tullow divested nearly all its assets in 2025 and is now focused only on Jubilee, TEN, and Côte d’Ivoire. But Côte d’Ivoire’s contribution is minimal and will be transferred to Petroci this year, so it’s effectively Kosmos’s Ghana assets. Some points I would like to highlight: 1. Production in Q1 2026 has been robust, surpassing the upper range of guidance. Jubilee's gross oil output exceeded 70k, and TEN nearly reached 15k. Management now admits that previous guidance was quite conservative, leaving room for substantial upgrades in the future. As a point of reference, Kosmos' share price declined sharply in November after Tullow unexpectedly announced its guidance. 2. New wells are performing better than expected, and the decline from existing wells has decreased significantly. Management noted that three wells have been brought online since mid-last year, producing in line with pre-drill expectations. One was brought on stream in late March, with three more expected before the end of July, followed by a water injection well in September. Tullow highlighted that preliminary results for the next well (J76) suggest another positive outcome. Importantly, the decline rate from existing wells is improving due to enhanced voidage replacement from more reliable, consistent water injection. The adoption of dual-riser operations and riser-based gas lift in Jubilee was key to achieving this success. Everyone was very bearish on Jubilee not long ago, so it's encouraging to see real data indicating that this field remains in good shape. 3. Since the start of the war, West African crude trades at a material premium to Brent due to lower geopolitical risk compared to the Middle East. Jubilee priced a cargo at $130 per barrel, the highest realized price Tullow has ever achieved on a cargo. It's worth noting that hedges are priced against Dated Brent. Therefore, Tullow/Kosmos have 100% access to this premium, which peaked at around $12 but remains very significant and volatile nowadays. 4. Tullow presented a compelling plan to significantly increase its 2P reserves by transferring value from the 2C category into 2P. New data from the 4D and OBN surveys reveal a strong opportunity for short-term, high-return drilling efforts that can sustain high production levels at Jubilee. Additionally, with the FPSO acquisition, they see potential to begin drilling in the TEN field and considerably boost performance. They confidently shared the NPV with Tullow, estimating Tullow's value at over $2 billion. Since Tullow owns nearly the same stake in Jubilee as Kosmos, this has significant implications for Kosmos. In summary, Tullow made a compelling case to Kosmos yesterday. Additionally, our GTA tracking shows strong performance in Q1. I anticipate Kosmos will generate free cash flow this quarter for the first time since 2022, despite GTA prices lagging (with a 6-month Brent average) and Ghana being largely hedged. To see the impact of Brent prices on Kosmos's P&L, we will need to wait until Q2. With the balance sheet significantly de-risked through divestments and a capital raise, I believe Kosmos's shares and bonds are still undervalued. Keep in mind that I am very selective in the oil sector now, as many companies are assuming a $80 long-term Brent price, but that’s not the case here. As always, note that I hold substantial positions in both the stock and bonds, so my perspective may be biased or incorrect. Conduct your own due diligence!

The bubble isn't where you think it is. Despite the semi/dot com bubble headlines, we aren't seeing that many LPPL exhaustion signals in Information Technology yet. The latest data actually shows active funds are still underweight tech. Instead, Utilities are flashing the most aggressive bubble exhaustion signals at present. This looks similar to the LPPL setups in Consumer Staples and Materials back in February—right before they rolled over.

Good Morning from Germany, where the country’s AAA credit rating is coming under pressure. Acc to a financial plan the cabinet is set to approve today, the federal govt aims to take on nearly €1tn in new debt by 2030. Interest payments are expected to rise to about €80bn; roughly double today’s level. Even w/this additional borrowing, there is still a funding gap of at least €141bn. handelsblatt.com/politik/deutsc…

🚨🇩🇪Russian tourists shocked by scenes in city park, Bochum, Germany. "Where the hell are the Germans, what is this sh*t - this looks like a third world country."