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@CDA

Researcher on Internet infrastructure, state-sponsored hacking, sanctions, human rights, and authoritarianism; 'Blonde guy, talks about Iran a lot.'(ملا لغتی)

Washington, DC Katılım Ocak 2009
902 Takip Edilen6.6K Takipçiler
cda
cda@CDA·
@hmajd His original attempt at organizing defections from the security forces was a form on a Google Doc. My pet theory is that the 50,000 number comes from the IRGC trolling (or muddying the waters) through en masse false registrations.
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Hooman Majd
Hooman Majd@hmajd·
He has support outside Iran which can be counted. The depth of his support inside Iran is questionable; especially among the armed and security forces. While it is true that there are Iranians who would welcome a change in regime, and would accept Pahlavi, that does not necessarily mean that they are willing to rise up and fight for him. His claim of 50,000 regime armed and security forces who have switched their alliance and loyalty to him has not shown any evidence of being true. Presumably the US intelligence community has a good read on his prospects. Which has to be why Trump has dismissed any notion of supporting his campaign. While the Israeli government has toyed with him, if there was any real plan to put him back on the Peacock Throne there would've been some indication of planning after the assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei and some of the top military and security leadership. The keyboard (and armchair) warriors are his supporters outside Iran. Not a single one has volunteered or attempted to go anywhere near Iran, preferring to march and protest in Western cities while applauding the war on their people, a war that has killed schoolchildren and destroyed critical infrastructure. Ayatollah Khomeini, whatever you think of him and the Islamic revolution, got on a plane with his aides and supporters and flew to Tehran while the Shah's government was still in place and there were threats to blow up the aircraft should it attempt to land.
Len Khodorkovsky@MessageFromLen

Perhaps the U.S. should be sitting down with @PahlaviReza (who has substantial support inside Iran) rather than Ghalibaf (whose support is from keyboard warriors outside Iran). Insightful research by @Shima_T_M

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cda@CDA·
@arash_tehran Please not the Center for New Liberalism.
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Arash Azizi آرش عزیزی
I am at a conference on Liberalism and one man has been mentioned by almost every panel as a hopeful example of how to win: Zohran Mamdani
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cda@CDA·
@alexstamos @growing_daniel I wonder how much 3D printers is an instructive model. Rapacious copying of foreign competitors and a domestic open source (by differing definitions) ecosystem such that Chinese manufacturers first competed on price, and then based on product quality (Bambu).
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Alex Stamos
Alex Stamos@alexstamos·
@growing_daniel 5) Eventually, this will either drive the US labs under or into acquisitions due to their huge debt and cost structures. 6) We now have the field to license our models on the high end while releasing the worse ones for free. Ask US Steel how this strategy worked last time.
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cda@CDA·
@arash_tehran Clinton-ian level of triangulation here, Arash.
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cda@CDA·
@hanifzk You're just bragging about being at the game, aren't you?
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cda@CDA·
@lrozen He holds the sharpie like it was a fountain pen!
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cda@CDA·
@GissouNia It's 2 just basically a restatement of the Algiers Accords?
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Gissou Nia | گیسو نیا
No clue what’s real here but wow to bullets 2 and 11 😩 2 is VERY expansive if not carefully detailed. E.g. does this mean the Islamic Republic can no longer be sued by U.S. litigants for torture & extrajudicial killing b/c that’s an exception to traditional sovereign immunity?
Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران@ariel_oseran

The Iran-U.S. MoU as published by Saudi Al-Arabiya: 1. Iran & the U.S., together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this MoU an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and commit that from now on they will refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this article and remaining articles. 2. Iran & the U.S. commit to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs. 3. Iran & the U.S. commit to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent. 4. Immediately upon the signing of this MoU, the U.S. will lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against Iran, and restore traffic within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity; ship traffic shall be proportional to the pre-war volume of traffic on the part of Iran. The U.S. also commits to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 days after the final agreement. 5. Upon signing this MoU, Iran will immediately take steps to ensure that the movement of merchant ships from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of ​​Oman and vice versa is resumed within 30 days to the pre-war volume, taking into account the need for the removal of technical obstacles and the neutralization of mines by Iran. 6. The U.S. commits, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of Iran, While ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan, as part of the final agreement, will be formulated within 60 days. 7. The U.S. commits to ending, on a schedule to be agreed upon as part of the final agreement, all types of sanctions currently facing Iran, including resolutions of the UN Security Council and the Board of Governors of the IAEA, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, both primary and secondary. 8. Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons. Iran & the U.S. have agreed that the fate of enriched material and all other mutually agreed nuclear-related issues, including Iran’s nuclear needs, will be adequately addressed in a final agreement; the final agreement will confirm the provisions of this article. 9. Iran & the U.S. agree that, pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo: Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program, and the U.S. will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its forces in the region. 10. The U.S. commits that immediately after the signing of this MoU, and until the date of the lifting of sanctions, the U.S. Treasury will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, etc. 11. The U.S. commits that, in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement, frozen or restricted funds and assets of Iran will be released and made fully available. These funds, whether held in the master account or transferred, will be used for any final beneficiary payment determined by the Central Bank of Iran and will be fully available for use. The U.S. undertakes to issue all necessary permits and licenses on this basis. 12. Iran & the U.S. agree that an implementation mechanism will be established to oversee the successful implementation of and future commitment to the final agreement. 13. Following the signing of this MoU, and upon receipt of assurances regarding the commencement of implementation of article 4, 5, 10, & 11 of this MoU, and the continued implementation of these steps, Iran & the U.S. will enter into negotiations for a Final Agreement solely with respect to the remaining Articles. 14. The final agreement will be approved through a binding resolution of the UN Security Council.

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cda@CDA·
"Teen Tech Gifts." Great work, @Etsy.
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cda@CDA·
Left, Trader Joe's; right, actual lefse. A horrible wrong has been occurred here! Justice demanded!
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cda@CDA·
Oh my lord, it's the most targeted culture appropriation in history – Norwegian-American grandmothers from the Upper Midwest.
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cda@CDA·
@k_tajbakhsh @vali_nasr If that's the benchmark of 'war' then you're inviting ample equivocation over the U.S. and Iran/Islam – support for the Shah, chemical weapons in Iran/Iraq, Iran Air 655, Israel, Lebanese civil war, 'axis of evil,' so on so on. Critical difference between contestation and war.
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Kian Tajbakhsh
Kian Tajbakhsh@k_tajbakhsh·
Hard but respectful disagree with @vali_nasr who writes “we have not been at war since 1979.” Who is the “we”? True, the US has not been at war with Iran, but it is a fact that since 1979 Islamic Iran effectively declared war on four fronts: against the United States, against Israel, against Western liberal modernity (think Salman Rushdie fatwa), and against the majority of the Iranian population that rejects the regime (think latest January 2026 massacre of unarmed civilians). I explained this in my essay open.substack.com/pub/kian/p/ira… How do I know? All this was calmly and without embarrassment explained to me multiple times by senior diplomats of the Islamic Republic and also during hours and years of interrogation and interaction with senior IRGC officers in and out of Evin prison.
Vali Nasr@vali_nasr

The Biden team admired Trump's maximum pressure, and disowned JCPOA to follow the same path when it first came to office. Now by embracing Trump's language that the war started in 1979, that we are just at the end point of a pre-determined history with no exit ramps along the way, it is showing that it has no policy vision of its own, no foreign policy history that it wants to defend, and in fact is hoping to avoid a reckoning with its own record with Iran. In reality history is not a straight jacket, we have not been at war since 1979, and there were many exit ramps that both sides (including the Biden administration) could have taken that could have resulted in a different outcome. I wrote about this here: foreignaffairs.com/iran/irans-roa…

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cda@CDA·
@xoxoshirazi I engaged in good will and a similar concerns about monarchist violence and bullying. I regret that was misperceived, will delete my tweets, and not bother you. I wish you well.
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Shirazi.t
Shirazi.t@xoxoshirazi·
It was an example used to make a point and your guilty conscience took that and outed itself. The plan to assault people steal their flags and set it on fire inside a crowded stadium to make a political statement against Muslims is what you are trying to soften and white wash. Period.
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Shirazi.t
Shirazi.t@xoxoshirazi·
Multiple Iranians have said they will or should burn Iranian flags at the FIFA World Cup games in the US as rebellion against the new policy that doesn’t allow the lion and sun flag at the games. They’re literally planning and promoting terror attacks. That’s the level of violence we’re dealing with. It wasn’t enough that they stabbed a father of two in London or killed a man in Canada. They want to terrorize everyone.
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.@rohmmer·
im trying to make a list of movies related to jazz anyone have any recs?
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cda@CDA·
@AsadFromNYC This is actually the opposite of what you should do. Hiding from the neighborhood makes you look aloof, alien, and disrespectful. Sit outside, say hello to neighbors, learn names, don't be obnoxious, offer a beer, and be helpful, especially to older folks. This isn't hard.
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cda@CDA·
@HostileSpectrum Oh my friend, this tells me that you're not aware of what China has done to the specialty coffee market.
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JD Work
JD Work@HostileSpectrum·
Wondering if the hallucinating supply chain management AI tool that could not count or label coffee inventory was built on Qwen. Because this seems very on brand for a Communist aligned model.
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cda@CDA·
@AlirezaNader At this point, there's plenty of fodder for someone to do a "spanish laughing guy" meme version of this whole ordeal.
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cda@CDA·
@websterkaroon He certainly has his populist base, but is there any evidence that he has influence over Sepah – which is kind of a fundamental requirement of the role – I don't think so?
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Alireza Talakoubnejad
Alireza Talakoubnejad@websterkaroon·
Most people outside Iran would be surprised to know Ahmadinejad had a massive base, particularly among the urban poor & including among those against the Islamic Republic. Their view of him is either still some exaggerated caricature the Western media drew in 2006 or informed off the despise of the educated middle class who (often with good reason) blame him for cronyism + corruption + 2009 ... and above all his loud mouth digging Iran an economic grave with its own hands. But that's not the only view. There are others who remember him as the only Islamic Republic politician who: - Broke taboos and openly talked about the alleged corruption of previously "untouchable" figures like the Rafsanjani & Larijani families - Didn't have ties with any "elite" families - Started a UBI program that for a short time did make a difference for large poor families - Made a point to visit completely neglected isolated areas - Openly defied the Supreme Leader to the point his entire inner circle arrested. This was to the point that when he returned from Cairo his supporters chanted, "Ahmadi the idol breaker, Break the great idol" - Opposed further Iranian involvement in the Syrian Civil War - Before any of this new nationalism stuff in the past 2 years made an effort to promote Iran's pre-Islamic past & Cyrus the Great After his presidency he: - Was the only IR figure to go to the Cyrus Day ceremonies (other than the late General Bagheri) in Pasargad. At one point he said, "They are afraid of the people [and don't want them to gather for this]" - Frequently broke red lines and made claims like that the government releases criminal thugs when protests happen to have them cause violence and justify a harsh crackdown And yes, when you talk to every day people, particularly the lesser heard voices in English media (the poor, the less educated), many are completely done with the IR but still have fond things to say about Ahmadinejad. Not all. But quite a few. So is it possible this is just a giant falsely planted story? Yea I think so. But he's not a guy that can be dismissed and could very well have an impact on Iran in a hypothetical post Islamic Republic era
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cda@CDA·
@neo_kme You just don't see the generational hatred toward former Presidents like what even I learned toward Hoover in the Midwest.
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neo@neo_kme·
Basically nothing he didn't do or see.
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neo@neo_kme·
love how Hoover is probably one of the most Well Lived men in history.
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cda@CDA·
@aziz0nomics AI boosters, misrepresenting an critique about electricity companies misrepresenting safety – a real problem generally now solved based on the regulations that critique inspired – is amazingly apt. Well done.
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cda
cda@CDA·
@aziz0nomics The cartoon is about how telegraph/electricity companies misrepresented the safety of the lines, until there were a series of death including a public electrocution of a poll worker. Problem was fixed with municipalities regulated lines. Original: hdl.handle.net/2027/mdp.39015…
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John Aziz
John Aziz@aziz0nomics·
Today, nobody is against electricity, or electrification. But the anti-data centre backlash we are seeing today has a precedent: the anti-electricity backlash of the early 1900s. They thought electricity would lead to horrible things. Here's a propaganda cartoon from then:
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