Caleb Petersen

Put this to Downing St. Sources close to Jonathan Powell categorically deny this line was anything to do with him and note the story has been updated to attribute it to a Gulf diplomat. Downing St denying tonight that Powell was present during the talks between the US and Iran

IRAN AND THE UNITED STATES HAVE SIGNALED THEY ARE CLOSING IN ON AN AGREEMENT TO TURN THE EXISTING CEASEFIRE THAT ENDED WEEKS OF HEAVY BOMBING INTO A LONGER-LASTING SETTLEMENT.

Israel has decided on a massive escalation in Lebanon. This is partially a reaction to all the IDF soldiers lost there. But also an attempt to derail the Iran deal: 1) Until now strikes stayed in south Lebanon and the Bekaa. Chief of Staff Zamir told the cabinet they need to hit buildings in Beirut and Tyre to restore deterrence on drones. According to Ynet, a senior Israeli official tonight: "decided to act on a broader scale in Lebanon." 2) The new doctrine is disproportionate retaliation — every Hezbollah drone answered with strikes on Dahiya (Hezbollah's Beirut stronghold) or the Bekaa. Their logic is deterrence, not revenge: make every drone cost more than it's worth. 3) Plans on the table to hit Hezbollah's drone array and senior figures sheltering in Beirut who've been untouchable under the current rules. 4) The operation has already started. Israel already struck Hezbollah targets in the Bekaa and other areas, Beirut not yet, but it's the next rung. 5) The northern Command deepening control through observation and fire across south Lebanon, clearing surface and underground infrastructure. Expect massive bombings of Beirut soon and targeted assassinations of Hezbollah leaders. The direction is a renewed invasions northward that will destabilize the Iran deal.

BREAKING: Channel 12 journalist Amit Segal reports that major gaps still remain in U.S.-Iran negotiations, with Tehran reportedly only willing to commit to not pursuing nuclear weapons while Washington pushes for reductions to Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile. The report also says disputes continue over control of the Strait of Hormuz and financial relief measures, with Qatar allegedly proposing a $12 billion humanitarian loan package as part of ongoing discussions. Lebanon is also reportedly being included in the wider negotiation framework.

I am currently talking to two sources I really respect. They are both telling me that Trump is backing away from the deal with Iran, likely under extreme internal pressure (i.e. Israel and its domestic allies in the US). This is a terrifying turn of events.