Canadian Carnac

Hey @Nigel_Farage if you end up debating this guy during the byelection, make sure you go to the debate looking like this.

@alch3my101 @ManningSla19960 About 4.5c

@CanadianCarnac @ManningSla19960 Average entry price?

Hi all. Been a while since I've had a chance to post here, and Kalshi has been a bit slow for me for the last few months anyways, but that ends today thanks to Graham Platner's withdrawal a few minutes ago. Yes, it's real.

@nonsenseking @carnitastaco Yeah I lost money on the other ones I played trying to hedge my main holding.

@carnitastaco @CanadianCarnac initially it was just the july 14 strike

@carnitastaco I accumulated over about a month & a half and yeah, I knew about the deadline.

@CanadianCarnac very cool. I didn't even know about this market until this week so don't know how old it was or what strikes it had initially. When did you accumulate? Did you know about the July deadline or just hoped they'd figure something out?

@ManningSla19960 Saw some of the news about him back in April/May and thought "this guy's gonna have problems"

@CanadianCarnac How did you know this

@CanadianCarnac Regardless, ROI:

@MatthewMarinel5 I may have cashed a bit of it out in that range. 🙂

@CanadianCarnac Sick hold. Takes a lot of guts not to cash that out when it was at 91-96. GG🫡

@XPredicter About 4.5c

@CanadianCarnac what was your average buy price?

@theduckguesses Likewise brother. Still need a few more of those to get into your league.

sick win man you’re so good

@nonsenseking High praise indeed.

@CanadianCarnac congrats. great bet

@benwfreeman1 Congratulations! Great addition @Kalshi!

New Badge, Who Dis?

@benwfreeman1 Given that this one is almost guaranteed destined for a runoff it seems more likely that he'd hold his endorsement until he sees how the runoff shapes up?

These are "lottos" to be clear, but I think I'm getting really good value on the possibility that he endorses all 3 candidates tomorrow for the Republican Texas Senate Primary. He's done it before with the "Erics," and all 3 candidates will be with him in Corpus Cristi tomorrow

If England misses the opportunity to have an MP named Sir Oink A Lot they should never forgive themselves

@GenaTheCroco @Domahhhh That's fine, the issue is being smarter about your choosing strikes and not creating "trap" strikes out of carelessness that cause enforcement of the rules to be against common sense and basic intuition.

@Domahhhh This is like those world leaders meeting or that award ceremony you also cried about... Basically Kalshi enforcing the contract rules. What's wrong with that? So you cannot scam markets like you do in Poly convincing UMA to rule in your favour?

The Mis-Anthropic World. A shocking discovery, but scientists now consider it likely: the prediction market Kalshi operates on - and originates from - a totally different planet than our own. In a new research paper published in February's issue of Nature, scientists have announced Planet K. Planet K is invisible to the human eye, and yet it exists close enough to access our world wide web. They've used that access to create a site called Kalshi. Scientists have demonstrated its likely existence through an instrument that detects the radiowaves of a series of inexplicable, unbelievable, and incredibly stupid rule cuck particles colliding with Earth. Some readings of these cuck particles, according to Table 2.8 in the paper, are "off the fucking charts." I reached out to one of the coauthors, and he said to me only one thing, "Listen son, there's no other scientific explanation for all this bullshit." NOW, I should responsibly mention that the other competing theory (one that I don't subscribe to anymore) is that Kalshi is okay with jerking their own customers around with fine print nonsense over and over again, costing their users millions of dollars for no reason, while generating fees in the process. That is possible! But it's not the likely scenario anymore. It's too far-fetched. Why would a company do that over and over again? No, the likely, science-based scenario is that there's a hidden, alien world called Planet K that uses our internet. Time and again, Kalshi has ruled against our perception of reality and in favor of made-up nonsense from their bonkers home world. Let's go over the newest example: The AI company Anthropic bought a Super Bowl ad. Unfortunately, as you'll find out, the ad only airs on Earth. Anthropic's ad buy made major headlines across the world (not only because of the ad itself, but also the content of the ad punches ChatGPT in the face). If you google Anthropic super bowl ad, you will probably get 1000+ news stories about this. In a straight forward, alternative prediction market on the exact same event, the odds of an Anthropic ad went from 60% chance to a high 90s chance that they would advertise in the Super Bowl after the news was released. The odds sit at 99% rn, and there's no hint of drama. In the Kalshi market, Anthropic went from a 60% chance that they would advertise in the Super Bowl to >90% chance after the news...............and then down to sub-10% after Kalshi brought down their Planet K-forged hammer. So, what happened here? (It trades at 16% rn, but we'll get back to that) Strap in for some esoteric, annoying nonsense from another world. Here are the rules under the contract: "If Anthropic airs a qualifying advertisement during the official national 2026 Big Game broadcast, then the market resolves to Yes." OK, perfect, so it's definitely YES! Very straight forward! Wait! But hang on, we're extra diligent and see if the word "qualifying" has a catch. Let's delve into the fine print PDF rules that we're going to download: "The Underlying for this Contract is whether BRAND [Anthropic] purchases and airs an advertisement during the YEAR [2026] Super Bowl broadcast." OK, perfect! It's definitely YES there, too! Anthropic bought and is going to air an advertisement! Straight forward. Thanks Kalshi! But hang on again...if you stopped reading there, you're screwed. Because lurking in the bowels of the fine print (a lengthy PDF) is another rule further defining their term "BRAND" with the following clause: "Parent company advertisements that do not specifically feature or mention BRAND do not qualify." The ad is about Anthropic's AI model Claude, Anthropic's only product-line (or, at least, Claude represents 99.99% of Anthropic's products). The ad does not use Anthropic's logo or use the word Anthropic. It instead talks about Claude, Anthropic's product. Therefore, according to a Kalshi ruling made yesterday afternoon -- in line with the bowels of their fine print -- the ad that will allegedly air (released in full already) will resolve in a NO. You had to have a PhD in Prediction Markets in order to go that far down into the rules looking for 'cucks' and then be able to put 2 and 2 together. [I should mention that your author could see the clarification train coming down the tracks and profited off of it to around $8k, but your author also yelled at them for hours to pause the contract and contain the Chernobyl-esque radioactivity that has now turned into a meltdown event]. So what is the net effect of this? Few bucks lost? Just a small ad market on Kalshi? A dumb and cute rule fight that we can dress up in colorful doll clothes? Nahhhhhhhhhhhhh. This market has seen its volume explode as new player after new player continues to board the roller coaster to hell, sometimes incinerating $10k+ in single clicks. It's a never-ending cycle of money incineration: new players are seeing news stories that Anthropic is advertising in the Super Bowl, clicking onto Kalshi, and buying tons of shares over and over again. Many veteran players, who saw Kalshi's ruling and realizing its a nearly-guaranteed win, are trying to buy as much No as they can, but they can't keep up with the demand. So the price keeps rising. From 6c after the clarification, to 8c, to 10c, to 12, to 14c, to 16c, etc. This market is almost 50% bigger than the rest of their Super Bowl ad markets combined. It's reached $10m in volume, with $2.7m in open interest. And rising. Fees generated are in the hundreds of thousands. Based on the average purchase price of yes shares, it's likely that 'new' traders will lose north of $1m because of this market. Could be $2m by the end. Plus in another sad twist, EVEN IF new players knew that a clarification existed, it's unclear if they would be able to parse Kalshi's vertigo-inducing announcement which they posted in all-caps yesterday underneath the market: "THIS MARKET RESOLVES BASED ON THE PARTICULAR BRAND, COMPANY, PRODUCT OR SERVICE LISTED BEING SPECIFICALLY ADVERTISED. IT DOES NOT RESOLVE BASED ON WHETHER THERE ARE ADVERTISEMENTS FOR BRANDS, COMPANIES, PRODUCTS, OR SERVICES THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH, OR OWNED BY, THE TARGETED STRIKE. IT IS TITLED, "WHICH BRANDS WILL ADVERTISE DURING THE BIG GAME?" TO BE CLEAR, IF THE LISTED MARKET IS A PARENT COMPANY (E.G. "ANTHROPIC") AND ONE OF THEIR BRANDS OR PRODUCTS IS IDENTIFIED IN AN OTHERWISE QUALIFYING ADVERTISEMENT (E.G. "CLAUDE"), BUT THE ADVERTISEMENT DOES NOT CONTAIN ANY SPECIFICALLY LISTED STRIKE, THE MARKET WILL RESOLVE TO NO." You can say that the paragraph contains words that are in the english language, but I think that's about it. It's unreadable to a normal person! I can barely understand it, and I know what they're trying to say. But forget all of that. What is the point of all of this?Why does this market exist in the first place at all? Because prediction markets are about predicting the future. Is Anthropic going to advertise in the Super Bowl is a straight forward question!!! And the answer does not need to be that complicated. So when users predict an event like Anthropic advertising in the Super Bowl, and then Anthropic advertises in the Super Bowl, there should be an extremely, extremely, extremely good reason to totally rip asunder that relationship between a market and reality. Was it a good reason? No. Kalshi created a trap market here: Anthropic was unlikely to advertise "Anthropic"! They were always going to advertise their only real product line: Claude! It was a bad strike, exarcebated by the fact that Kalshi was very slow to clarify after the ad came out. So users who didn't understand the fight continued to bet money on yes as it traded in the 60s, 70s, and 80s before the clarification hammer came down and rendered their shares nearly-worthless. And even still, right this second, many traders probably don't know that the clarification exists -- even after it was made! -- because how or why would they know that...? It's a large-scale money incineration event where Kalshi receives fees, and money rolls uphill from noobs to veterans. That is bad on any planet. (In the next post, I'll briefly highlight another few examples of this fine print alternate reality that Kalshi has cultivated.)

@Domahhhh Kalshi gonna buy a "brought to you by" placement and give it to Anthropic to get themselves out of this one.

@benwfreeman1 Today: Feb 1 N holders rugged Tomorrow: Hassett N holders rugged

This morning, Trump dropped the odds of him picking a Fed Chair in January from 18% -> 1% when he said he would pick him “next week” Then tonight, Trump said he would pick the Fed Chair “tomorrow morning” pumping the odds from 1%->90% instantly Some traders made a 90x return

@0xTyrael But how much did he make on Karo leaving the podium?

@benwfreeman1 Ilhan Omar

Who would have to run in 2028 to have this result happen again?

@PredMTrader You should definitely be wearing a tin foil hat on your next live stream

The Karoline Leavitt speech duration clip was very obviously not insider trading for anyone who is not already aware - there was literally $3k in total traded on that market. I just thought it was funny that she ended so close to the bracket but people ran with this narrative.