Censie

@cherryPayment 多少价位买入的，我的正股一动不动😭

$SKHY 没买到的朋友也别着急，这个肯定会增发的，目前溢价那么严重，一增发流通性一来就会有筹码了。 别着急，耐心。 200我就卖了，感觉也快要增发了。

@ParadisLabs 写的非常好，感谢解惑，看完更加觉得需要坚定持有

Paradis Macro Report [July 8]: US & Iran | AI Trade | Macro Data | Hedges | Catalysts The US/Iran ceasefire has collapsed... Overnight, the US struck >80 Iranian targets e.g. air defences, coastal radar and small boats in response to Iranian attacks on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz, incl. an LNG carrier from Qatar. With Trump saying “it’s just a waste of time dealing with them.” at the NATO summit today. Trump has threatened more strikes tonight, while the Treasury has revoked its waiver on Iranian crude sales. As expected, Brent and WTI crude oil rose today due to 1/5 oil volumes passing via Hormuz. For now, this is a “wait and see what happens” situation rather than actively trading the news. It's all very volatile, as seen with semis names recently w/ ~$2.8T of market cap being wiped out across the ecosystem at the end of June alone. We all know that semis have been selling off aggressively for the past couple of weeks, which hasn't been helped by the broader macro landscape with the war. In my view, it's definitely a risk-off market for the time being with the hyperscaler earnings at the end of July being the next critical catalyst. Maybe good timing to get all this war nonsense out the way beforehand? Korea is certainly the epicenter of the issue here with KOSPI being down over 20% in just over two weeks. Samsung put up staggering earnings earlier in the week where they became the most profitable company globally ahead of the likes of $NVDA. But the stock has sold off over 12% since.... Clearly, nothing is fundamentally wrong with Samsung. They're booming. So when a historic earnings gets sold, that's most likely a combination of de-leveraging / profit taking. Well, tbh, it doesn't really matter what the issue is, fundamentally they're strong and will continue to be strong. Then shifting back to the US, you'll hopefully remember the rates backdrop that we're currently in from my previous reports. Ultimately, the Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75% in June but there's a hawkish undertone with 9/18 participants projecting at least one hike in 2026. Today's FOMC minutes highlighted that the committee is split roughly 50/50, with a few officials seeing a case for a hike. The 10 Year Treasury Yield is currently at 4.571% at the time of writing this. And while the shocking June payrolls miss (just 57k jobs vs 115k expected) knocked Sep'26 hike odds from about 2/3 to roughly 1/2, oil's spike now revives the inflation case. Meaning that every high beta/multiple growth stock lots of us are invested in are caught between a hawkish Fed and a rising oil price. And looking at other data points such as: - VIX at 16.8 - High yield spreads at circa 2.75% - Gold falling nearly 1% Shows that the geopolitical premium that was build since ~Feb has already unwound significantly. In simple terms: we're in a valuation correction environment (as we know) in crowded AI names w/ a war premium bolted on top. Evidenced by the ongoing rotation into sectors like energy, defensives and large caps - away from smaller cap names such as those upstream AI supply chain bottlenecks. In terms of near-term events: - SK Hynix Nasdaq ADR (10 July) - June CPI (14 July) - $TSM earnings (16 July) So to summarise: I'm viewing the current macro picture as a 3 layered cake: 1. Geopolitical shock with US/Iran 2. AI positioning unwinds/deleveraging 3. Hawkish Fed rates environment And in terms of key data points to watch for: 1. VIX spiking above ~22 = more market turbulence 2. High-yield spreads through 3.25% 3. Brent beyond $90 All would mean something worse is going on rather than just a sector rotation that we're in now. Which I view as short term since AI fundamentals will superceed any short term noice. Until then, (NFA) hedges are cheap e.g. energy, defensives which are working right now. Also defensive tech as I like to call it i.e. software.

@aleabitoreddit 非常感谢你，因为阅读你的推文让我转变了自己的交易思路，才开始在股票市场上获得收益。照顾好自己，注意安全

I've reached 900k followers, thank you everyone! Just some reflection, it's actually a nightmare at higher counts... Which is new to me, since I started at almost nothing earlier this year. 1. Threats of safety, which I don't enjoy. - Random new accounts sending personal threats - Mysterious foreign accounts, sending coercive messages the moment I mention a foreign ticker If I hold an opinion about a stock, I'd prefer not to have anyone show up on the street with a knife at night since it's safety risk at this point... Never felt like I'd have to take that into consideration for holding an opinion. 2. Egregious media narratives - Lot of outlets try to dismiss my ideas like $RPI or $SIVE as "meme stocks" or me as "meme trader" when I talk about supply chain chokepoints or fundamental catalysts to revenue due to AI. Without ever covering the core ideas or hyperscaler mapping I've done. I let success validate my ideas, but it's annoying when they can just pretend their claims like "___ will imminently crash as a fact" which ends up not happening. Or that "___" is just a retail meme stock without mentioning $JBL, Ayar, $GFS or others for CPO scale up or pluggables. I'm grateful to some outlets, like in Belgium for $XFAB coverage, but many others try and paint their own narrative rather than covering a very nuanced thesis objectively. - When I mention a ticker in a foreign market, some try to frame me as some "adversarial account"! I'm just sharing ideas, and I'll always disclose positions/financial interest if I have them. If I say I have none, they just make up some narrative that I'm some foreign institution or random group inside their country that does. Some have even tried hilariously forging screenshots of me to harm my reputation, which was annoying to deal with. Since it's easier to textedit a photo and spread it around than it is to dispel disinformation. Lot of institutions know me personally by now. I just don't go broadcasting my identity to random people in the media/public, since personal security gets expensive and I just want to live about my day. 3. Endless X bot spam - I have endless hundreds of comments a day trying to link external communities pretending they're me. I manually delete, and block thousands of these accounts, sometimes hit regular people by accident. And it's extremely exhausting to the point my fingers cramp certain days. Even if I give the most blatant warnings in bio, people still get scammed and think it's me. Then I get blamed for it too. I actually had a conversation where someone asked if a scammer was me. I said no verbatim, then they double checked like 2-3 more times because they didn't believe I said no because someone had the same username on another scam platform. In another world, maybe we'll get automod type tools. But until then, it's mentally exhausting dealing with all of this. But I do so anyways since I don't want my followers to get scammed. 4. Endless engagement baiting - I have tons of people making up fake stuff about me, tagging me in posts, randomly bashing my ideas while missing any technical nuance in order to get me to comment or farm views. It's a catch 22 since the moment I reply, they get a lot of views, which was their goal. And if I don't reply it just looks like I'm avoiding something (which is not true). I'm very transparent, I always try and entertain people who disagree first. But when it gets into personal attacks or leading questions/disinformation rather than substance then I don't engage. It's a little sad though when people I've interacted with end up caring more about engagement over relationships down the road. 5. People missing the nuance - I share ideas pretty often and I always maintain I don't want people to copytrade or blindly follow, which is why I haven't set up any copytrading apps. Before it was just posting with a few $RDDT friends on ideas like $AXTI, $NBIS, or $ALAB, and people were more knowledgeable traders. Then seeing if markets validate my guesses like with InP substrate bottlenecks. But because many turned out directionally right, to the point it became a central talking point between China/US trade relations, lot of random folks started to follow my account last few months. But many of them miss nuances with float dilution, or material updates along the way such as rate hikes, and I get blamed if a thesis changes. Now since there's so many random people, even if I share an idea about $CBRS last Friday. At market open I had people panicking over a 2% drop, asking me if I did something to a $44B+ company, even if it went up 20%+ today. Now I have compliance review for posts, which delays things a lot but makes sure people don't get the wrong idea. And I have to be careful about my timing, so I post new ideas when markets close. Before, it was just sharing ideas the moment I had them during lunch or in the shower, so this is becoming a headache. 6. I post my core ideas for free. And I've always said this from the start. I actually made my subscribers chat literally by accident, and set the bare minimum amount on purpose since I didn't want to take people's money. But kept it so I could avoid the bots and not spam the main timeline with random thoughts/scrapped research. I think me becoming the #1 most subscribed to person on X was literally by accident. But lot of weird narratives out there when media or others don't believe that I just genuinely want to share my ideas for free. And that people shouldn't need to pay $300 in a paywalled community to see them. _ Not sure if people want to read it all, but just some things I've gone through. It's not as much fun at higher numbers and it would be nice to go back to when I was smaller. Regardless, I'd rather not turn this into a job, or make it feel like one. Will probably take a break when I hit 1M as a milestone and do something else that will help out the community like sharing my research pipelines and such. Think a lot of my friends at 10-50K follower counts, seem to experience some of these issues too. But problems get magnified a lot at this level. I never needed the X creator fees or anything, just wanted to share ideas for fun if people wanted to listen. And didn't expect any popularity, but it's nice to see that people find my ideas compelling.

@vicky1219757 @cherryPayment 感觉这只股票已经被遗忘了。。。

@cherryPayment 等这波情绪退去，回撤一些再开始建仓，就像xfab🤣

Serenity的影响力依然是巨大的！ 在周五谈论到 $CCXI 后，当天涨幅高达11.41%，然后在今天的夜盘涨幅依然是17.53%！ 而 $sive 作为他最看好的标的会如何表现😏

@jukan05 我们中国人都千方百计想办法离开A股市场，来正规市场投资。你们别想不开去交易A股

Having recently traded China A shares myself, my impression was that the market is far too easily moved, and even manipulated, by absurd rumors. At the time, I held a leading Chinese CCL stock. One day, a rumor circulated that Chinese securities regulators were investigating a fund for allegedly manipulating CCL related stocks. As a result, a stock that had been up nearly 7% intraday quickly gave back all its gains and fell back to around flat. But after local Chinese media looked into the matter, the rumor was found to be false. A shares are far too vulnerable to rumors. I no longer trade China A shares.

@jukan05 小红书最近在封锁美股相关内容

I just created a Xiaohongshu account. (My Chinese friend told me that I really should start using Xiaohongshu…)

@aleabitoreddit @Tang8vrb 中国的股票只会辜负你，那里不是价值投资市场而是纯粹的赌场

专门写给我的中文读者： 绿的谐波（LeaderDrive，688017，577.3亿人民币）是我在布局人形机器人赛道时最青睐的中国上市标的。 他们的业务涵盖： 谐波减速器（据称占有超过60%的国内市场份额，以及1800多家全球客户） 人形机器人旋转关节减速器 直线执行器 电机/关节，以及许多其他核心零部件。 并且他们正在进军行星滚柱丝杠（planetary roller screws）领域。 目前占据着绝对的主导地位：超过60%的国内市场份额以及1800多家全球客户。 主要客户包括优傲机器人（Universal Robots）、优必选（UBTech）、智元机器人（Agibot），而特斯拉（Tesla）、Figure 以及绝大多数其他人形机器人研发商都很可能是他们的潜在客户。 如果你看一下这些零部件的 BOM（物料清单），粗略估计它们占到了每台研发出的人形机器人的 4-15%，随着他们进军更多细分领域，这个比例可能还会更高。 我认为没有人能对这类公司进行精确的财务建模，其前景更多取决于未来几年内会有多少人形机器人实现量产。 这其实是对一家能够在每台生产出的人形机器人中占据可观份额的公司，进行的一种方向性做多（directional long）。 在可扩展的规模化量产方面，中国显然是该领域的领导者，许多西方玩家无法将成本降到绿的谐波那样的水平。 随着我们向实体人工智能（physical AI）的规模化迈进，我极其看好机器人这个赛道。

@Jackyipwx @LXC_X_ @aleabitoreddit 请问是不是大陆身份不行呢，我这边没有开通台湾地区权限的选项

@LXC_X_ @aleabitoreddit 盈透可以

There we go. My CPO longs in Taiwan are finally starting to take off today. Shunsin +10% Foci +10% Xintec +10% Just waiting on Win Semi, Msscorp, and Nextronics to catch up.

@aleabitoreddit sad

This is the biggest TAM expansion + revenue driver with $SIVE, markets haven’t noticed. Sivers is actively working with new pluggable optical transceiver companies. After Jabil 1.6T LRO used Sivers lasers to achieve a “relatively dramatic moat”. “Actively working”, so co-development / qualification stage. My guess is we’ll likely see optical transceiver companies (eg. Innolight), announce they’re using $SIVE lasers soon.

@aleabitoreddit thank you， serenity

Only thing to look at with $SIVE earnings is forward growth. Nobody cares about pre-development contract earnings from 2025 or last quarter, especially for qualification cycle optical players. Having 77% growth of opportunity pipelines (revenue volume ramp projections), to $799m In a quarter is absolutely incredible growth. And, I’d expect to see that continue compounding. “The company continues to anticipate several volume production starts within AI data centers” (photonics/lasers). Is also very positive and validates the thesis about volume ramp for photonics. Now next thing to look at is earnings call transcript, once they’re indexed, which is the most important signal of what’s to come. Overall, very positive.

@jukan05 we can buy now？

Damn, I couldn’t buy Dell because I didn’t have enough cash.

@aleabitoreddit 没有必要花费心思研究中国股票，在中国，政府一纸文件就可能改变一个行业一家公司的命运，比如最近的富途、长桥因新政策股价暴跌

在 X 上看到这么多中文社区的支持，真的让人很开心！ 这体现了种非常有趣的文化差异： 大家会试图了解我的思考过程和选股逻辑，并以此来完善自己的投资体系。 相比之下，其他些文化背景的人可能上来就会全盘否定。 也许我会为了好玩，开始写写对两支中国股票的看法，哪怕我并没有持仓。

@aleabitoreddit 非常感谢你serenity，作为中国投资者百分之百支持你，谢谢你的无私奉献

Just a fun observation: the only people you see complaining about free research. Typically have massive paywalls. And get upset others are disrupting their business models. I get tons of institutional/hedge fund offers. But instead of doing things for institutions only or through heavily paywalled subscriptions. I just publish my ideas to retail investors for free. I think it’s about time retail has a level playing field?

@Daniel1212G @WallStreet0Name @aleabitoreddit 她早就澄清过，引流whatsapp的都是高仿账号不是本人，这些评论屏蔽都屏蔽不过来

@WallStreet0Name @aleabitoreddit 这么牛逼，还需要带单赚钱吗，还有空WhatsApp给人带单。就凭这事，我高度怀疑是杀猪盘

多个消息渠道查了一下，Serenity @aleabitoreddit 在 SIVE 股价低点的时候建仓了0.5%–1% 的持仓。 按目前sive的价格，0.5% 就是 1380万刀，1% 就是2760万刀了。 他确实不是只晒收益率的假专家，用自己真金白银下注的牛逼人物。

@smart_wang_ @aleabitoreddit 请问怎么买，大陆身份是不是买不了

刚刚 @aleabitoreddit 提到的5支台湾股票里，有两只可以直接入 一个是 Win Semi，另一个是 Nextronics 具体分析可以看下图，然后其他的目前估值有点略高，可以先观察

@dihe3309581 @cherryPayment 感谢回复，我是大陆身份😭

@Censieee @cherryPayment 设置的交易许可里面，把股票类别开通台湾许可就行。不过需要注意的是，如果你是用中国大陆身份注册的，就无法交易台股。

还是有很多朋友不明白如何购买 $sive 包括关于身份证明等诸多问题 以下是5月13号整理出来的 评论区有来自欧洲的小伙伴的分享 也包括国内朋友的分享 请自取 ！

@aleabitoreddit 你在中国最知名的自媒体平台-小红书，已经获得非常多的推荐了。因为我们中国的大V都是在割韭菜，没有人愿意免费分享能让大家获得投资收益的干货内容，谢谢你serenity

哪里的话，应该是我谢谢你们愿意花时间看我的内容！ 最近涨了这么多中文粉丝，我真的特别开心。感觉这两天差不多就涨了快三万粉？ 原来 X 上的中文圈比我想象的要大得多啊！感觉以后多跟大家互动、交流交流想法，肯定会特别有意思。

@aleabitoreddit 谢谢你serenity！我是在中国的自媒体平台上看到大家谈论你，所以专门注册X关注你，我用X都是因为你，这段时间在SIVE上获得盈利，希望以后还能继续看到你的分享

华人社区最近的赞誉让我感到受宠若惊！ 我认为任何空头被打爆，都只是我单纯喜欢像 $AAOI 这样的股票而产生的无意间的副作用。 希望也能与更多的华人社区朋友互动（最近我在 X 上跟日本和韩国的网友互动得比较多）。

@cherryPayment 请问怎么在ibkr购买，提示我没有权限

我都没注意到 $lpk 居然涨幅那么多今天…… 我记得几天前我还在加仓来着？ 总体来说 没赚多少 但是持仓体验很棒 1-2个月的持仓有着 30-40%的收益， 我很满足。 有加仓 $lpk的吗？