@AndyMasley Truly an excellent post and useful post, thank you!
this misinfo about ai's enviromental impact is super widespread and annoying
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Charlie Rafkin
265 posts
Charlie Rafkin
@CharlieRafkin
Public and behavioral economics Postdoc @UCBerkeley @Stanford, then assistant professor @UBC
Boston, MA Katılım Şubat 2013
1.5K Takip Edilen925 Takipçiler
Charlie Rafkin retweetledi
@nickgebbia The job market taught me so much useful stuff. For instance, when the overleaf download exceeds (100), it starts inserting random strings instead of numbers
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Notwithstanding incorrect standard errors and weird units for inflation, this first-pass regression is reasonably informative
Nate Silver@NateSilver538
There are some confounders here, but the inflation thing is actually statistically significant! Each additional $100 of inflation in a state since January 2021 predicts a further 1.6 swing against Harris in our polling average vs. the Biden-Trump margin in 2020.
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@FrankSchilbach @CESifoNetwork @hmmlowe Thanks, Frank! and definitely have big shoes to fill @hmmlowe
(though if he’s so inimitable why do I keep finding myself following his path, as a fellow frank student -> ubc AP??)
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Paper here: charlierafkin.com/docs/rs_evicti…
(update coming soon, consider this a commitment device to stop procrastinating the painful post-JM revision..!)
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Honored to have my work with @esoltas on social preferences and eviction recognized at CESifo's behavioral economics conference!
CESifo@CESifoNetwork
🏆 Congratulations to @CharlieRafkin from @UCBerkeley, winner of the #CESifo Affiliate Award 2024 in Behavioral Economics! 🎉 His paper ‘Eviction as Bargaining Failure: Hostility and Misperceptions in the Rental Housing Market’ stood out for its impactful insights. 👏
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Earliest documented instance of econ hating… absolutely wrecked by Proudhon in 1840
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@dylanmatt @joshcmorrison Have you done the Revolutions podcast season on the French Revolution? Really really good if you want to fill in the background
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Very happy to share that I will start as an assistant professor at @ubcVSE in Jan 2026, after postdoc visits at Berkeley and Stanford!
So grateful for my time at @MITEcon, and for my fantastic advisors, mentors, coauthors, and classmates.
UBC Economics@ubcVSE
We're happy to announce three new hires, marking the end of a very successful recruiting year. Join us in welcoming Ying Gao, Charlie Rafkin (@CharlieRafkin), and Miguel Ortiz (@mortiz217 ) to Vancouver, and to UBC! Article: econ.cms.arts.ubc.ca/?p=32068
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Charlie Rafkin retweetledi
Great Vox article on the Case Deaton research, including a very thoughtful discussion of our paper (@paulnovosad @CharlieRafkin and me) on how to think about outcomes like mortality by education group when the underlying educational distribution is changing over time
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@salonium One flag is that the indirect effect on dementia is larger than the direct effect on shingles (at least in pp). My guess (based on v little tbf!) is that biologically plausible “passthrough” could be no larger than 1 in 5, but the study is not powered to detect effects that small
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Be skeptical when someone says "it is essentially impossible that this finding is due to confounding" in general, but even more with a design like this.
Be also skeptical when a preprint goes straight to the media. I also read the robustness checks & they didn't seem extensive.
Pascal Geldsetzer@PGeldsetzer1
It does! We estimate that over a 7-year follow-up period, getting vaccinated averts one in five new dementia diagnoses. In the paper, we demonstrate through extensive robustness checks that it is essentially impossible that this finding is due to confounding. 8/
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@salonium @paulgp @paulnovosad @thesamasher yeah, i love this paper and their analogy to comparing alaska vs. the US
but - we ultimately conclude the opposite way, ie there are in fact real (and huge) increases in mortality for the bottom 10%
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@paulgp @paulnovosad @CharlieRafkin @thesamasher Very cool. Reminds me of this paper academic.oup.com/ije/article/43…
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@pursuingabbynes Nuclear emergency warning -> descend 100 hours on escalator to safety… the perfect plan
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@CharlieRafkin Did you also know that because it is so far underground it is a viable nuclear fallout shelter?
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Sharing some simple Javascript code embeds that can improve Qualtrics surveys for econ/social science research
(+ if you have similar hacks, I'd love to see them!)
github.com/crafkin/simple…
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@paulgp @jondr44 Freyaldenhoven et al. (2021) gives some useful best practices scholar.harvard.edu/files/shapiro/… - though not experimentally validated, I guess
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A 🧵 on our work on US mortality change, just out in AEJ:App, with @thesamasher and @charlierafkin.
We ask: how concentrated is the U.S. pre-Covid mortality crisis? Is everyone doing a little worse, or is a small subset doing catastrophically worse?
The graph is a spoiler 1/N
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