Spekulatius

@theTIKR referral link: app.tikr.com/register?ref=o…

@kab604 The LLM providers got to make a living somehow

aGI iS hErE!!! (I'm sure it's just a matter of tweaking the models and throwing more compute at the problem and not some inherent limitation of auto-complete bots) 🤡🤡🤡

@Tylerkaerr @TMTLongShort They been been laying if engineer in VR and engineering though

@TMTLongShort I was called an idiot the other day for proposing that their VR efforts actually resulted in substantial and valuable science and engineering and manufacturing advances across several fields.

In a year from now people will look back and realize Zuck more than broke even on his Reality Lab investments just on the real-world data generated by Meta Glasses and the utility this will provide as robotics ramp

@philandruri @BDHerzinger Well said.

@BDHerzinger Not sure. If we are truly reverting to a system which more resembles the pre-WWI era, then I think there is more room for the middle powers. Not sure what the U.S. is providing is balance. More like a gravitational well, with other larger players doing the same.

@mitsuhiko Equity =Eigentum. If shared it’s Anteil. I guess you don’t really speak German. Dein Tweet is totaler Unsinn.

I find it bizarre but also interesting that there is no German word for “equity”. It explains a lot about the way people do business and transact here.

@Shenanigans_ATL @salingergregor I walk anytime for $150/ hour.

@salingergregor You think people spending thousands of dollars on flights and tickets are going to walk an hour because the train is expensive Also how will they get to Rutherford from NYC? Penn Station will be close going to NJ except for trains to the game.

if they keep this bs up there will be 50k intl fans each game day who just take a regular train to Rutherford and WALK the 1h to the MetLife Stadium. I know walking is an unfamiliar concept for most Americans, but it is a thing in the rest of the world.

@omgsidewalks Yes.

Did parents really just let their kids wander the neighbourhood all day with no phone and just say be home before dark?? Be honest.

@ThinkAppraiser Take my car.

72 mile trip Which option are you choosing?

@p8stie You see this in the US all the time. Now check out Swiss or German wiring . No comparison to the US.

Every foreign country looks third world to even the most junior American electrician

@mog_russEN This was a game we played on LCD stop watches back then. the goal was to hit 5.00 sec exactly.

🚨 A kebab restaurant in Germany offers free meals to customers who can stop a timer exactly at 10 seconds—something nearly impossible, until a child surprisingly succeeds.

@BitcoinPierre @Jesse_Livermore How could you possibly know what the IRGC considered? Did they release a strategy paper?

The IRGC developed its Strait of Hormuz strategy with 1970s data and didn't update it. Devastating miscalculation.

Some great marketing around Anthropic Mythos. Too good to be released, but of course relaxed it will be.

@DivinelyLevered @buccocapital Bailles from $WDAY is a mercenary. Check his resume, he frequently changes positions.

@buccocapital Prior to your tweet, $WDAY was widely perceived as a pos that lacks innovation. Needed to bring back founder to turn it around in "war times" If that's the case, Anthropic hiring the CTO is not the gigabrain doom scenario you are implying.

CTO of Workday was there for 11 months then said fuck that and just went to Anthropic And some of you are out there trying to buy the dip

@CRUDEOIL231 @Callous_Boomer They make a deal with a Iran that everyone can live with. MBS really does not have much power, imo. Longer term, the Gulf states will have to arm. SOHNis primarily their problem and their neighborhood.

@Callous_Boomer We all know they’re not gonna move a finger right now. It’s just empty talk. Who knows about later though? Once they’re feeling the pain deep in their bones, they might finally scramble to send out some warships.

I think way too many ppl are delusional about this idea of letting Iran control the SoH, having the US pull out, and just letting Iran set up a toll booth. Where does Saudi’s power actually come from? It’s not just because they’re rich. Their entire influence comes from being the world’s only swing Producer. We need oil, and Saudi controls that market. If Iran takes over the SoH, they become the most powerful, one of a kind Global Swing Producer in history. If they don’t like the oil price? They can just "adjust" the traffic in a strait that handles ~20mb/d to swing prices however they want. If the UAE gets on Iran’s bad side? "No passage for UAE tankers." If Kuwait tries to build a bypass? "Fine, the SoH is closed starting today. Let’s see if you can finish that bypass—which takes years—without making a single dime." By letting Iran control that flow, the US is effectively making Iran the ultimate energy gatekeeper. The entire regional hegemony shifts to Iran. Saudi and the UAE lose everything. Think about it—if you were MBS, would you let this happen? Let’s say the US pulls out this week. The US started this mess, and now the GCC has to just sit there and watch their power handed over to Iran? Let me give you a reality check for Americans: Imagine Mexico now controls the North American continent. "Want to fly to the UK? Get Mexico’s permission. Want to import jet fuel from Asia? Pay Mexico a toll and take the route they tell you to. Did you dare to criticize Mexico? Now, no container ships can enter your waters. You can’t say a word against the great President of Mexico." It sounds like a fantasy, but that’s the reality for the GCC. If the US tries to run away? If I were the GCC, I wouldn’t let them leave. I’d grab them by the hair and drag them back to clean up the mess they made. I’ve said before that this is an existential issue for Iran and Israel. Well, Iranian control of the SoH is an existential issue for every other GCC nation. And the GCC has leverage. They have massive wealth invested in the West, huge U.S. asset holdings, decades of lobbying networks, and they are the biggest donors for Trump’s terms. And of course they have oil. Do you really think Brent would stay below $100/bbl if the GCC teamed up and cut just 3mb/d for six months? Even the most optimistic guy knows the answer is zero chance. They don't even need a fancy excuse: "Oh, since the US gave up on us and Iran owns the SoH, it's not safe. We have to cut production. Sorry!" Within months, the US would be begging to come back. It’s just pushing the Middle East into an even bigger pit of fire. Thanks for listening to my TED Talk :) #oott #iran

@gnoble79 Al, these stablecoins can be redeemed at a moments notice, which means the underlying treasuries will have to be sold.

$315 BILLION in stablecoins are now backed by US Treasuries. And I don't understand why no one's questioning this. Goldman's David Solomon and former Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin just did a victory lap on stablecoins. Their pitch: Stablecoins strengthen the dollar, create demand for Treasuries, make it easier for people outside the United States to hold dollars. Sounds great. Until you look at what's actually happening underneath... The GENIUS Act passed in July 2025. First federal stablecoin framework in US history. Stablecoin market cap has grown 50% year over year. Tether alone holds $141 billion in US Treasuries, making it one of the largest holders of American government debt on the planet. Washington's pitch is simple: every time someone in Argentina, Turkey, or Nigeria buys USDT, they're buying Treasuries by proxy. Dollar dominance strengthened. Problem solved. And here's the part they REALLY love... The US ran an $1.8 trillion deficit in fiscal 2025. CBO projects $1.9 trillion this year. National debt just crossed $39 trillion. Interest payments alone now exceed $1 trillion annually. Meanwhile, the biggest foreign buyers of Treasuries (China, Japan, Canada) have been pulling back for years. ARK Invest found that the share of Treasuries held by the largest foreign creditors dropped from 23% to just over 6% in the past 13 years. The Fed is STILL running down its balance sheet. So who's going to buy all this debt? Washington's answer: stablecoin issuers. Treasury Secretary Bessent said it himself: "A thriving stablecoin ecosystem will drive demand from the private sector for US Treasuries and help rein in the national debt." Think about what that actually means. The government is counting on a $315 billion crypto product (run largely by a company in El Salvador that just got its first real audit last week) to help finance a $1.9 TRILLION annual deficit. Stablecoin issuers currently hold less than 2% of outstanding Treasury bills. Even if the market hits $2 trillion by 2028 like Standard Chartered projects, that's still just a rounding error against $39 trillion in total debt. This is literally a NARRATIVE designed to make the debt problem sound manageable. But the Federal Reserve published a study showing that for every $1 that moves from bank deposits into stablecoins, bank lending contracts by roughly 50 cents. Stablecoin issuers can't make loans. The GENIUS Act prohibits it. They can ONLY hold Treasuries, reverse repos, and cash equivalents. So when deposits leave banks and flow into stablecoins, that money stops funding mortgages, small business loans, and commercial credit. It starts funding government debt instead. The US Treasury itself estimated stablecoins could drain up to $6.6 TRILLION from the banking system. That's not "strengthening the dollar." That's redirecting the lifeblood of the real economy into government IOUs while starving Main Street of credit. And then there's the run risk nobody wants to discuss. Fed Governor Michael Barr said it yesterday: Stablecoin issuers have every incentive to chase higher returns on their reserves. But unlike banks, they CANNOT access the Fed's discount window. If a stablecoin run happens, issuers dump Treasuries into the market all at once. Stablecoin inflows push Treasury yields down 2-2.5 basis points. Outflows spike yields UP 6-8 basis points. Easy in. Ugly out. Meanwhile, Tether is the 800-pound gorilla. $185 billion in circulation. 550 million users. And until last week, it had never had a Big Four audit. It just hired KPMG after 12 years of operating with nothing but quarterly attestations. This is the entity Wall Street is celebrating as the future of dollar dominance. A company headquartered in El Salvador that fought transparency in court twice and LOST both times. Here's what Solomon and Mnuchin are actually telling you if you listen carefully: Stablecoins create captive demand for short-term US government debt. Foreign governments don't want to hold Treasuries anymore. So Washington's solution is to get 550 million retail users in emerging markets to hold them instead through a digital wrapper called a "stablecoin." The holders get zero interest. The GENIUS Act explicitly prohibits it. The issuers pocket the Treasury returns. Tether made $10 billion in profit last year. And the real economy loses credit while the government gets cheaper funding. This is a classic Wall Street pitch to sell financial innovation as progress: "This strengthens the system. This is good for everyone." Then the leverage builds, the risks concentrate, and the people who sold you on it are nowhere to be found when it unwinds. Stablecoins are NOT saving the dollar. They're a $315 billion shadow money market fund with no Fed backstop, no deposit insurance, and run dynamics that could destabilize the very Treasury market they're supposed to support. If you want to hold dollars, hold dollars. If you want to own the asset that central banks are actually buying instead of Treasuries, you already know what that is... 🥇

@ContrarianCurse Deals with both is the answer for differnt things.

>be Europe >politically cuck yourself until you are entirely dependent on other super powers >eliminate all energy self sufficiency over worthless climate targets that no one actually gives a fuck about >bureaucratic circle jerk, literally cannot move on anything of value Two choices >make a deal with China which will promptly hollow out the rest of industry that is left >make a deal with the US who protects you and you rely on for consumption butttttt blew up nordstream and now Hormuz and now you depend on to a degree never before seen Great job retards!

@vanckzhu @blondesnmoney P/B<1 or I am not interested.

@blondesnmoney Rules are rules

You need to see a couple dozen of these before it bottoms

@RayLian @insane_analyst BS, the same story was handed around in 2022. it’s a commodity business and they are price taker.

@insane_analyst Memory is no longer a cyclical business that depends on the upgrade cycles of personal computers and mobile phones. $MU, for example, now gets most of it revenue from data centers. It has a core growth engine that make it an AI infrastructure growth story.

Memory stocks should not be viewed on P/E basis. Literally go to 2023 $MU earnings calls where Sanjay was publicly begging Samsung for mercy. There will be oversupply and negative gross margins in future. Memory is most violent sub-sector of semis, a violently cyclical biz.

@Biohazard3737 OK, that’s a while ago, but in WW2 the US and Uk dominated the Atlantic and Germsny had to rely on submarine warfare to reduce the supply of goods. Even in the Pacific, the US Navy was about even with Japan in terms of forces but with much higher capacity to produce more ships.

Eine ziemlich gute Analyse der neuen Steuercorschlägen vom der @spdbt . Ich empfehle Channel auch für andere Beiträge (bzg Meinungsfreiheit. Parteipolitik, Wärmepumpen ) youtu.be/1_hMgspTOPc?si…

@Estefan448 @Lisa_Viaalpina Ja was hat sie denn angerichtet außer das eigene Land zu verteidigen?

@Lisa_Viaalpina Was hat das die Ukraine vorher im Donbass angerichtet..... Die 🏅 Medaille hat zwei Seiten!!!

In der Ukraine brennt ein Land, das nichts getan hat außer existieren. Die Aggressoren marschieren, als gehöre ihnen die Geschichte. Und während Raketen Städte zerreißen, diskutiert die Welt darüber, wie viel Unterstützung ein angegriffenes Volk „verdient“.