Pete

@tleilax___ @staunovo Do you have any insight into the reported fouling damage of ships that have been trapped for months? Apparently causes drag (slows them down once they move) and will require repairs.

To finish on this, I think all hell breaks loose at or before we reach 6.5 bln barrel global visible inventories. 2.8 crude linefill and tank bottoms 1.3 crude and products on water (in transit) 2.4 products linefill and distribution channel I'm a touch more optimistic that the JPMorgan / BBG publication, but not by much, at current deficits, shortages can't be avoided in three to four months. Even sooner for products with low inventories and high operational floor caused by the long distances they travel from production to consumption regions, think petchems and certain light ends.

@flatbg1 @Longviewres Yes but the point the CEO made was that they can make 7 C1000’s per week (350MW per yr). That doesn’t mean they can produce 28 C250’s per week, to get the same 350MW per yr maths. Order mix matters a lot in order to project annual sales volumes in MW’s. @Longviewres

@CompoundRich @Longviewres Maybe I’m wrong but isn’t the C1000 just 4x C250s packaged together?

@ragingbullcap The difference between $10 and $20 annually makes the calculation of value worlds apart. Which is it ??!

$NRP People blowing out of a $100 security that should structurally be able to return $10-20 annually for several decades just in dividends (and potentially much more + free optionality) because they're upset the company had to inject... a whopping one single quarter's worth of (depressed) fcf into a struggling asset and thus push back distributions by a few months - tells you everything you need to know about investor time horizons these days.

@c_MANANA_ @IvanR108 Interesting. Would they need more platforms to scale well count or not?

@CompoundRich @IvanR108 65k is where we get with all three platforms at current well count. But there are 102 undrilled wells across 76,000 federal acres. The 200k pipeline capacity isn’t an accident - it was built for full field development. We’re nowhere near the ceiling.

Court said no. Market said yes. $SOC breakdown by Manana Desk.

@c_MANANA_ @IvanR108 Yes. But 65k bpd is the maximum possible production from all the platforms as I understand?

@CompoundRich @IvanR108 Pipeline capacity is 200k bpd. Current production is 50-55k- Harmony and Heritage only. Hondo comes online in June, gets us to ~65k. The 200k is the ceiling, not where we are today.

@c_MANANA_ @IvanR108 200k bpd? What?

@IvanR108 This is already in the background. SPR at historic lows, Trump wants to refill it, Sable has 200k bpd capacity at 30% utilization. A federal offtake agreement makes the refinancing a 5-minute conversation. Connect the dots.

@oguzerkan Because Brazil could well be in recession (now/soon) from the energy, fertilizer, and (to come) El Niño agriculture shock. Market is pricing in earnings deteriorating as per the large loan loss reserves.

Can someone explain how $NU deserves to trade at just 13x forward earnings while growing 40% YoY and planning to enter the US market next year?

@TidefallCapital Interesting take

Has Chip just been trashing $LULU because he actually is taking it private via $AS? There's zero financial debt on it and you could fire the entire marketing department overnight. $LULU trades at 9x and $AS at 42x, massively accretive. What's $LULU worth with proper management?

@OilHeadlineNews A research firm?

'Point of no return': A research firm says the oil market is headed for a dire turning point by early June

@LukeGromen @jwkprod_ This is nonsense. AI capex + ancillary markets are running growth at 3%+ of gdp. Some other areas of the economy could fall into recession (housing already is?) with bad enough oil demand destruction, but that would not pull the US into recession, especially if 1/2 quarters.

@jwkprod_ Demand destruction = recession = federal receipts down with true interest expense (interest + Entitlements) already 100% of US receipts = print or default on USTs = lose long end either way

@LukeGromen @PauloMacro Come on. Sovereigns will not sell long bonds and take massive real price losses on the bonds in order to buy overpriced energy. This is what swap lines and demand destruction are for.

@PauloMacro Once we hit tank bottoms, then the world gets to REALLY selling USTs to source oil from other sources

Biggest weekly draw in history and only gets worse from here as imports fall and refiners ramp. NBD.

@DeepSailCapital @gbusch12 Can get another 50GW simply by not retiring coal plants and running them at 85% capacity as opposed to 45%. BTM solutions such as gas and diesel powered engines can be 20GW across the entire market. The power is there just not in the form that’s wanted permanently.

@gbusch12 In my mind we have cascading capacity constraints. As one gets hit we move to less desirable but ok option. Yes $BE is top of the chain below $GEV. Both of these might already be at capacity. So what’s next constraint down? Does Solar + BESS make it?

There are so many disparate pieces of equipment, power generation, power transportation, optics, and chips that need to all come together thru 2030 to make these AI dreams a reality. I’d say base case is we get worsening delays into 2027-2028 and the delivery of compute we now think will scale smoothly through 2030 actually stretches out into the mid 2030s.

@Longviewres With their current operating cost structure they would make no money on 15% GM’s. I assume 25% GM and 10-15% operating margins… The $2M per MW sounds very low given they guided for $3.5M all in per MW for the whole package?

@CompoundRich Net Margin can be impacted by various things, but in my model I have conservatively assumed 15% GMs for $2M per MW ASPs. So we are talking super conservative over here. They could likely be much better, but lets just wait and see when they sell something to a DC.

@mascarosergi ‘If everything’s going well (in a company) and the stock doesn’t act right, get out.’ Druckenmiller

I’ve never seen a -30% on a thesis that’s moving forward faster… that’s why it was short lived. I think with what is going on in the power side, this will be a nice benefficiary. “The bigger grower now is actually the stationary storage for for the data center work.” $IPGP

@Valuation_Shop Apple was selling for 10x free cash flow, with half of its market cap in cash with no debt. Buffet saw the ability to return that cash and boost ROE significantly, which in turn 2/3x’d the multiple. Google is phenomenal but the maths is very different.

Noticing all the criticism online about Berkshire Hathaway's new $GOOGL position and how "they bought in too late." The exact same thing was said when they started buying shares of $AAPL in 2016. We all know how that one turned out.

@HettyGreen2020 @Invesquotes Not expensive but I struggle to see the druckenmiller angle. Perhaps currency related tailwind

@CompoundRich @Invesquotes So you’re paying 10x for a store with 15% SSS and increasing margins… and getting the supplier funded incremental store growth for free. And you think that’s expensive? $TBBB

1/ Stanley Druckenmiller continues adding to $TBBB, an unknown, fast-growing, Mexican hard discounter I have not seen it discussed on X, but the in-depth report I published in January was precisely about TBBB. Let's dig deeper 🧵

@FirstSquawk @HFI_Research @HFI_Research why repost false info? It discredits the good work you do.

MASSIVE EXPLOSION AT THE ENTRANCE TO THE BAB AL-MANDAB STRAIT INTO THE RED SEA LAST NIGHT; THE SILENCE OF MARITIME NEWS ORGANIZATIONS AND WESTERN NEWS NETWORKS REGARDING THIS MAJOR EXPLOSION IN THIS STRATEGIC GLOBAL WATERWAY IS INTOLERABLE - IRIB