Craig Setzer, CCM

@mayor_simpleton Haha. Right you are!

@CraigSetzer Look Craig we need our daily breaking news alerts, fires 🔥 are good red meat. Like the blood red feels like temperature map

Me every time I read about how terrible/unusual for there to be fire in the Everglades in May. "The River of Grass is perpetuated by fire. For thousands of years, lightning strikes and humans have ignited fires in the sawgrass prairies. Sawgrass fires actually improve the passage of water through the slough or shallow river basin, by reducing grass that would otherwise impede the vital flow of water through the Everglades. Fire not only improves habitat for wildlife by creating a mosaic pattern of vegetation, but also helps reduce large accumulations of flammable fuels near hammocks or tree islands, which harbor a wide variety of subtropical plants that are less tolerant of fire." nps.gov/ever/learn/man…

RT @WestonFLAlert: UPDATE on Fire in the Everglades: The brush fire that started yesterday near Mack's fish Camp (18599 Krome Ave) has expa…

@JackLinFLL glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/pyrocumul…

Sw 8 th st fire appears to be generating its own weather

@AngelaBelcamino Did you catch Air and Sea show?

I’m in South Florida, Fort Lauderdale area—recommendations?

Ft Lauderdale Air and Sea…from the sea.

@AndyHazelton Worthless

As cool as AI is now, it has some bad hallucinations. I asked for a composite image of satellite images of the last 12 major hurricanes to hit Florida, and it gave me this lol. Looks like about 9 hurricane Katrinas, 2 Ians, and Jeanne listed as Michael lol.

Ft Lauderdale Air & Sea Show this weekend but the best seat in the house is from the water (today was the pre-show practice).

@LeaderJohnThune Wow ratio

Enjoyed visiting with students at John Harris Elementary School in Sioux Falls.

@RyanWeather Caribbean, Gulf, SE US, & Fla winter 26-27 going to be lit!

Updated El Niño forecast for this summer/autumn is "off the charts" EXTREME with "boiling red 🔴" map colors along Equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This is "Code Red" for the Earth's climate system going into Summer 2026 --> suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity.

@Veeringwindswx 100%

There hasn't been enough discussion on the prospect of late season (Nov-Dec) tornado outbreaks associated with a strong/super +ENSO event. The thing that jumps out with these examples is the CPAC warmth/zonal SST gradient driving a more amplified NPAC jet

@cyclonicwx @rushtropicalwx Great perspective Alex !

@rushtropicalwx Is this your first time tracking an El Nino event? The West Pac subsurface getting cool is a classic sign of El Nino exhausting the warm pool out there and flattening the thermocline

👀👀👀

@chigrl @conksresearch 😂

@conksresearch Nick Cannon and Dyan Cannon?

oh you're a cannon expert? name all the cannons

@AndyHazelton Makes for a hellacious severe weather winter though.

I think sometimes it can get lost just how much the atmospheric response to a strong El Niño (like the one coming later this year, likely) shuts down the Atlantic compared to weaker El Niños. See the 200-hPa wind (shear proxy) and MSLP anomalies for strong and weak/moderate El Niños from 1950-2020. The TUTT, Caribbean shear, and subsidence across the Gulf, Caribbean, and MDR is much more pronounced in these strong El Niños. That's why a lot of the "It only takes one" storms that get cited for El Niño tend to come from these weaker El Niños - the atmosphere is notably less hostile for periods. In years like the one coming up, things can be almost completely shut down except for the far East/North Atantic.

@AndyHazelton @yconsor Wow, great discovery!

AI "vibecoding" has allowed me to make some progress on previously stalled side projects. A deeper dive into the synoptics and trends of Florida hurricane landfalls is one of them. One of the more interesting things I've seen so far is this difference between East Coast landfalls and "near misses". In both cases, there's a ridge over New England. But the big difference is out west: the landfalling composite has the big west coast trough with the upstream ridge over the Gulf of Alaska. This pattern seems to allow the ridge to dig in over the East Coast. On the other hand, the near misses composite has more ridging out west, which allows a weakness to develop over the plains and turn the TC just before reaching Florida. Hurricane Dorian in 2019 was a pretty textbook example of this difference - that upstream ridge over the Western CONUS was stronger than originally forecast, enhancing the downstream trough just enough to grab the TC before it reached Florida.

@JDross44 Yes. Blowing 40 knots. Seas about 12 feet. 250 SE of NYC heading northwest

@CraigSetzer You can hear the wind. Water looking a bit rough out there.

That feeling when you’re glad you’re on the larger vessel. #NorthAtlantic

@AndyHazelton From @philklotzbach

Lol Grok automatically translating Niño (as in El Niño) to "kid". That's gonna be annoying over the next few months. "Massive Boy Taking Over the Pacific" 😂

@ONLYinDADE Using blinkers is a sign of weakness Flashers in rain in left hand lane

Unwritten rules in Miami: • Yellow light = Go faster • Blinkers are optional • Merge? You’re not getting in

@HHalevi88144 I know right? The pattern has changed and the high pressure systems are moving off the US east coast giving us a lot of ocean breeze. Looks like the pattern may shift by next weekend.

@CraigSetzer Craig. What was up with the crazy windy weather in S. Florida yesterday?

Colorado State University releases their 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast calling for a below normal activity primarily due to the onset of an expected strong El Niño.