@S_Mahendrarajah @CENTCOM So the laundry room doesn't catch on fire just like the other one.
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Zip.
334 posts
@CENTCOM Why is the USS George H.W. Bush taking the long way to Oman? Afraid of Ansarallah (“Houthis”)?
If US Navy had balls, the CSG would go through the Red Sea
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More than 10,000 U.S. Sailors, Marines, and Airmen along with over a dozen warships and dozens of aircraft are executing the mission to blockade ships entering and departing Iranian ports. During the first 24 hours, no ships made it past the U.S. blockade and 6 merchant vessels complied with direction from U.S. forces to turn around to re-enter an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman.
The blockade is being enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. U.S. forces are supporting freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.
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Ok, I found a cheap asset in these markets. $NG - nat gas.
Really interested in storage plays.
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Bullish oil
Energy Headline News@OilHeadlineNews
Saudi Arabia just said multiple energy facilities across the kingdom have come under attack, hitting upstream, midstream and downstream infrastructure, including the East-West pipeline, Manifa and Khurais fields, key refineries, and LPG/NGL export sites. @Bacharelhalabi
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I'm buying insurance against credit contagion and a potential market crash. I found some that I think is mispriced, and I shared my thesis on Bison Insights.
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@intelFromBrian Except divide your ship count by 10...
x.com/dolfiniran/sta…
هنر جنگ@dolfiniran
۰۴:۳۶/ ۱۹ فروردین طی ‘توقف آتش’ دو هفته ای، تنها حدود ۱۰ تا ۱۵ کشتی با موافقت ایران، در هماهنگی با نیروی دریایی سپاه و پس از پرداخت عوارض از تنگه هرمز رد خواهند شد و امریکا متعهد است تمام اموال بلوکه شده ایران را آزاد کند. تنگه هرمز به هیچ وجه حتی پس از توافق نهایی به شکل سابق، ‘باز’ نخواهد شد. علاوه بر این امریکا متعهد شده در این مدت از هر نوع جابجایی نیرو خودداری کند. در این مدت مذاکرات بر اساس طرح ۱۰ ماده ای ایران که در متن بیانیه شورای عالی امنیت ملی به جزئیات آن اشاره شده، برگزار خواهد شد. در صورت عدم توافق، جنگ مجددا از سر گرفته می شود.
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IF the strait of Hormuz opens and goes back to usual traffic, that will be around an average of 135 ships per day.
135 ships x 14 days= 1890 ships will pass through the strait of Hormuz the next 14 days.
If Iran charges $2 million, and they split it with Oman, that is 1.89 billion dollars that Iran will make in the next 14 days.
IF it stays open permanently and Iran is able to charge the $2m (and keep the 1m), that is almost $50 billion dollars per year for Iran that they will make yearly due to this war.
Plenty of money to spend on the ballistic missile program! (And reconstruction obviously)
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@MEC_Tracker @sentdefender Might want to redo your math at 10-15 ships per day...
x.com/dolfiniran/sta…
هنر جنگ@dolfiniran
۰۴:۳۶/ ۱۹ فروردین طی ‘توقف آتش’ دو هفته ای، تنها حدود ۱۰ تا ۱۵ کشتی با موافقت ایران، در هماهنگی با نیروی دریایی سپاه و پس از پرداخت عوارض از تنگه هرمز رد خواهند شد و امریکا متعهد است تمام اموال بلوکه شده ایران را آزاد کند. تنگه هرمز به هیچ وجه حتی پس از توافق نهایی به شکل سابق، ‘باز’ نخواهد شد. علاوه بر این امریکا متعهد شده در این مدت از هر نوع جابجایی نیرو خودداری کند. در این مدت مذاکرات بر اساس طرح ۱۰ ماده ای ایران که در متن بیانیه شورای عالی امنیت ملی به جزئیات آن اشاره شده، برگزار خواهد شد. در صورت عدم توافق، جنگ مجددا از سر گرفته می شود.
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We received reports on this around forty-five minutes ago; assuming the fee is $2M and ~135 ships pass per day, thats ~$3.8B in two weeks.
Iran has practically achieved the 'good ending' in regards to every aspect of this ceasefire and future negotations.
We provide a real-time uncensored feed of what's happening in the region.
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Under the two-week ceasefire plan agreed to tonight by both Iran and the United States, both Iran and Oman are permitted to charge fees on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Associated Press, with officials stating that the money received by Iran will be used to rebuild the country following the recent strike campaign by Israel and the United States.
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Zip. retweetledi
$PBR is up 24% during the Iran war, yet its valuation on EV/EBITDA has fallen.
The reason is simple: analysts are rapidly upgrading Petrobras’ profitability.
Karel Mercx@KarelMercx
On January 27 I wrote: Oil is still cheap. Every time gold rallied, oil followed. If oil moves too, this becomes a jackpot. I bought more $PBR today. The market is far too optimistic about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This may be the last chance to buy $PBR below $20.
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@ShitValueFund What are the low risk jurisdictions ?
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Energy names are gone up based on earnings... But what about the revaluation of low risk jurisdiction oil and gas assets? Market was valuing them so cheap... Much more upside to come...
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@ws4r5065455 @JoshYoung When the US pulls out... Yet 12 A10 planes are on the way along with a host of other equipment and a few thousand soldiers
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@JoshYoung Expected after a 50 - 70% YTD gain. There could be another move up depending on where longer-term oil futures end up. After the US pulls out, is the Strait open completely, partially closed, the same as now? That will be the key. Only a few leaders in Iran know the answer.
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@econ_713 @CroftHelima @liamdenning @chrishelman @rfelliott @AndurandPierre This is like the once high school quarterback. Nice 10 day war end call.
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If you don’t post it, didn’t happen. So here it is: 2016 #Oil bottom call, 2 trading days before absolute Brent bottom. Best call of the cycle & it wasn’t close #OOTT @CroftHelima @liamdenning @chrishelman @rfelliott @AndurandPierre
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@ShaleTier7 Just wondering unlike most analysts on here you don't talk/cheer lead your investments which is refreshing in a sense but it gives me the impression you may not have been heavy O/G during the last year run up hence some potential bearish bias now.
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Oil prices rebounded on the fact that Donald Trump's report was fake news; Iran said there were no negotiations and that attacks would continue for a long time.
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@BamaBonds very few people actually believe this though
the overwhelming evidence is massive but the dip on index (aka mag7, not energy stocks)
meanwhile insto selling of energy is off the charts
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Decades of experience teaches that you buy oil stocks when everyone thinks there is a glut (as, amazingly, people thought as recently as December) and sell them when everyone sees scarcity as far as the eye can see (as, amazingly, people think now).
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@valconitivo @DogMatixxxx @Kacper_PK_CH Multiples already have that risk baked in compared to say American E&Ps
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@DogMatixxxx @Kacper_PK_CH Dont you have some kind of jurisdiction risk on those 2?
Colombia & Brazil are both semi-communist countries
Brazil wont let Petrobras print cash (that'd be "unethical")
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$MOS - Mosaic - closed LTH (Long-Term Hold)
It only definitively broke down in the last 2 days, dragged down with everything else. We did a round trip here, earned some on the LEAPS roll, then gave it back and some, overall -3% counting trades on top. Will hunt for a better entry when the markets bottom. Things are getting really ugly right now. Zoom out below.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski@Kacper_PK_CH
$MOS – Mosaic LTH (Long-Term Hold) Now up +20% in 2 days. 👍 I'm glad of course, but I know it's news driven. Still, I'll take it. Now, let's settle here and see if we can head higher, or if we'll consolidate first.
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@phil_hk @trend_bullish Lots of catalysts as well. Look for a conservative government in their upcoming elections and for the O&G exploration ban in Columbia to be lifted.
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@trend_bullish Remember that $EC pays dividends the following year, unlike $PBR. Which means we could be in for a resumption of huge dividends 2027.
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@CaptnForesight USA could do export ban that would crater WTI
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@trend_bullish Don't forget Brent which we might see even more divergence to the upside compared to WTI. I've been rotating more and more Canadian holdings to South America. The multiples on $EC are so undervalued especially with election upcoming
x.com/lwsresearch/st…
LWS Financial Research@lwsresearch
“🛢️ Ecopetrol SA $EC and Petrobras $PBR announced a new offshore gas discovery in Colombia’s Caribbean with the Copoazú-1 well, reinforcing the region’s hydrocarbon potential and supporting the country’s energy security. The well, located 36 km offshore at 964m depth, adds new gas volumes as Colombia seeks to reduce import dependence amid supply shortages. The discovery strengthens the strategic presence of both Ecopetrol SA $EC and Petrobras $PBR in offshore exploration and long-term energy development 🌊⛽ #Energy #OilGas #LatAm”
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We will need some rerate on many e&p soon with wti at this price…
GIF
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