Farisitoo
77 posts


So here's the napkin math I did on Nextronics (8147) when I went long.
They're the $NVDA CPO supplier for CPO connectors and cage thermal modules.
And I modeled around 2 FWD p/e for 2028, which is why I think risk-reward is very compelling for a potential 10x rerating to ~$2B+ MC in 2028.
Just for their CPO exposure:
-> CPO connector runs roughly $15 to $25
-> ELS thermal cages, maybe ~$50 from est.
18 units per switch: 18x50 = ~$900
CPO Connectors: 72 Optical Engines per switch 72 x $15 = $1,080
(If $NVDA scales their Spectrum-X switch, it goes to $1,920 for CPO connectors).
Total Nextronics Content: ~$1,980 (rounded to $2k for calculations) in conservative case.
Implied BOM % of rack: 0.08%. Maybe ~1.5% of switch.
This looks microscopic to institutions so it probably is ignored.
Is it material to Nextronics, a ~$200m company?
Yes, absolute massive.
For calculations: Applying 50% haircut to Nextronics' share of the Nvidia connector market/cage market because of multi-source.
And I’m using GS projections, and assuming $AVGO, $MRVL, ASIC CPO ecosystem is 30% size of $NVDA.
Net Income Margin: 22.4% (at 38% GM)- 24.0% (at 40% GM).
But going off other projections from just, a rack shipments:
2026: CPO revenue ~10.1M, net income (22.4%)
~2.26M + $12.5M base = $14.7M (540k units for connectors, cage, 40K units, already divided by 50%)
2027: CPO revenue: ~$172M, net income (22.4%): ~$38.53M = $51.03M (~8M units for connectors, ~1.03M units for cage)
2028 scale up expansion: CPO revenue: $450m, net income: $100.93M, ~$11.3M base (~40M units for connectors, 2.98M unit for cages, eg. Nvidia ELS volume is 19.9M)
So implied fwd p/e 15.4x for 2026, 4.45x for 2027, 2x for 2028.
Of course at scale, blended margins might go down, there might be other players bringing market share down to like 25%, etc. and projections might be more or less than GS.
But regardless seems highly asymmetrical even if I'm off by a whole 50%.
2028 is usually the massive re-rating for CPO players, 2026 is still really early.
Hope my math is right, but 20x fwd p/e multiple would be $2.26B MC.
Even if we drop:
-> market share to just 15%.
-> compress their net income margin down to 14%.
-> connector ASP to $10.
At a 20x multiple, the stock would still achieve a ~4.5x return to a $1B+ market cap.
We'll see if this is right or not. (NFA, just speculative financial modeling)

Xecv@Xecvvv
@aleabitoreddit It'd be great if you included your revenue models and projections whenever you share positions you enter. I know in the past you've said it's to simplify for retail, but easier to build conviction when we can see your reasoning and actual numbers (and allow us to double check).
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@Frenchie_ Remarque de noob mais c'est reel : le truc qui me « derange » c'est que ces actions pour la plupart ont deja fait +100,200, 600 voir 1000% en 1 an
j’aime pas rentrer sur des ATH, j'ai des traumas de la crypto qui reviennent. Quel est votre point de vue sur la question?
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Ce qui se passe actuellement en photonique est insane
$IQE est à plus de 70£
Si vous aviez suivi notre thèse d’investissement sur la photonique c’est un x3 à minima assuré
>J’enclenche aussi la vente de 25% de ma position

Frenchie@Frenchie_
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@Jpfredoli Only 13% of Altcoins meet their ATH during a second BullRun. I really don’t think that EGLD will be in the party.
If you have not bought during the bear market to lower your average price - good luck
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Alt season will begin soon. Choose wisely.
#EGLD #MultiversX max supply 31 million. 26 million in circulating supply including 17 million staked.
#alts with no maximum supply is a NO for me

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@AlanTradingYT Ca va être les montagnes russes autour des 120-150$
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@iEx_ec @KnowledgeX The kid 👦🏾in the train yesterday was unstoppable. I hope that your leg 💥doesn’t heart you Marc
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@CryptoMidna @0xPerceval J'ai eu un moment de flottement en voyant votre commentaire, car c'est la première fois que je vois quelqu'un avec la même image de profil 😅
Quelqu'un avec du goût à n'en pas douter !
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@TiboInShape C est la nouvelle génération woke snowflake. Parfois il suffit qu une personne fasse une réflexion pour qu elle se rende compte qu elle a vrmt un problème. Je laisserai jms un proche grossir au point de devenir obèse sans lui dire « hey, tu devrais faire attention ».
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Farisitoo retweetledi

Maintenant vous pourrez facilement nous reconnaître aux prochains évents #Crypto 🫡 #Bitcoin #btcbusiness

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Farisitoo retweetledi

C’est parti 🎉
BTCBUSINESS Club est lancé 🚀
C’est le début d’une longue histoire✊
Un nouvel équipage 3.0 qui se lance🏴☠️
btcbusiness.fr
#cryptomonnaie #bitcoin #btcbusiness #BTC #bullmarket #bearmarket #Pirates #cryptoclub
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