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Onchain $BTC - The metric you need to know before making decision during downtrend.
I've gone through 2 downtrend since 2017, and one thing I learned: this isn't the time to rush.
The key for success is patience, you must have the best possible position before next uptrend
Sometimes, basics are the best, you don't need to know much, these metrics of onchain $BTC are enough to determine the bottom zone:
1/ Realized price: the "average cost basic" at which all bitcoin were purchased!
Currently it stays around 55K -> compare with historical price, when $BTC drops to below the realized price, it's the most ideal price to all-in your bag.
2/ MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value)
Current: 1.22 -> market is at "fair value" zone, still higher than accumulation zone (<1.0).
Compared with historical data 0.5-0.8 at 2018/2022, $BTC may decline ~18-36% from here to meet the same MVRV levels.
3. SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio)
Current: 0.98 -> it shows the slight capitulation but not extreme levels (<0.95). The bottoming SOPR usually remains under 0.95 for a longer period.
4. NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)
Current: 0.18 it's still in the "hope" phrase, we need a negative NUPL to see the market fully capitulate.
5. Puell Multiple (miner profitability by comparing daily revenue (USD) against its 365-day moving average.)
current: 0.77 -> Miners are under pressure but haven't reached full capitulation.
History shows that bottoms often forms when it below 0.5.
Bottom line:
Apply to this cycle, $BTC is in the early stage of accumulation but has not reached the full capitulation. It needs time for deeper discount!
Using the metrics above to calculate:
Extremely bear: 38K-44K
Base case: 55K-60K
From my POV 55K-60K I'll start #DCA, under realized price I'll all-in my bag.
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thanks @coinglass_com for the data & @grok @preditmarket for AI research
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