Dallas Thompson

@SouthernValue95 I’d suggest talking to major enterprises that used or went all in on copilot and dive into the renewal rate or lack of…. I’ll be shocked if 50% of Copilot users renew… there are far superior options and open models will drive pricing down

$MSFT is still down on the year, and <20x my estimate of CY27 EPS. With Azure growing mid-high 40s, and M365 commercial ($100B business) soon to accelerate to the 20s, I think multiple expansion is warranted. The vast majority of MSFT revenue and profits are clearly benefitting from AI and the business will see earnings compound in the 25%+ range. Why I’m so confident in >20% growth for M365 Comm’l in several quarters: - Copilot adoption alone at current pace of +10M/seat per quarter, at a 25% discount to $30 list, will do it (I est. copilot is contributing ~4pt of growth today going to ~10pt NTM). - Copilot seats additions are accelerating, and the math below assumes they stabilize at +10M/qtr. - ARPU upside (1): MSFT new E7 SKU launched in May is a $100 SKU vs. a modeled standalone Copilot ARPU of +$30 (discounted 25%). - ARPU upside (2): MSFT turned on consumption pricing for Copilot in July, some users will eat into consumption tier driving ARPU >$30. - MSFT recently launched premium consumption add-on products, such as Project Perception, an autonomous cyber agent that hunts for threats and vulnerabilities. Security is the hottest spend category right now and I wouldn’t be surprised if Perception was a hit. - Lastly and possibly most significantly, MSFT just took a series of price increases on M365 commercial, effective 7/1. It’s first price incr. since 2022. So core growth ex Copilot should accelerate.

@MilenaAmit Milenka - stating you are proud of being a mom is not shaming someone who does not want to be a mom. The real question is - where is your question of self worth stemming from

You want to stay home, bake sourdough and have 9 kids? Wonderful! But if another woman wants to go to med school and become the ob-gyn who helps you deliver those 9 kids, you don't get to guilt or shame her for HER CHOICE.

@chamath Interesting to see hardware is excluded. One of your besties is long Dell. I’m near term short Dell- but long term long….. Translation~ sitting on cash to buy Dell after a pullback …

Here is my AI investing guide. Sitting here August 2026, my current best thoughts are as follows: 1. LPS (Land Power Shell) is still the most obvious and fastest path to cash on cash returns. Lots of value can be assembled and traded quickly at this layer. And as data centers get more pushback, energized land can explode in value. Very bullish here. I’ve stepped into this layer very aggressively. My partner @anitavlallian and I have acquired almost 6GW coming online in a ramp from today thru 2029 of grid power and behind the meter. 2. Silicon - I helped get @GroqInc off the ground in 2015 and we licensed it to @nvidia for $20B Dec2025. I won’t invest or incubate anything in this layer now. The perf demands of the chips are too high, manufacturing precision is too complex and supply chain influence to get adjacent components like memory isn’t possible for a startup anymore. Lots of capital will be wasted here chasing Groq and Cerebras’ success. Note that both startups made sense a decade ago when these constraints were much more modest. 3. Clouds - Clouds are very very lucrative but very hard to build and very expensive and technically complicated to maintain. And as alignment becomes a more important issue, I expect the clouds will be asked to build robust KYC and attest to it. This makes the risk:reward ratio skewed. I don’t want to be responsible when the USG says a cloud allowed a bad actor to do something bad because of poor KYC. 4. Models are complicated. The big open question is how much of the revenue being generated by them today is because of tokenmaxxing and poor model behavior. If it’s a lot, then the annualized revenues will diminish meaningfully even as token consumption inflects upwards. This is the big economic question at this layer. 5. Harnesses are where the action is and why I started @8090solutions two years ago. In a nutshell, the harness helps enterprises owns their proprietary context (what Alex Karp calls their ‘alpha’). This is an enterprise’s data, workflows, evals, and business rules. A harness that gives this to an enterprise is what creates very low model-agnostic switching costs, which further reinforces my views of #4 above. 6. Applications will be another long term winner along with harnesses. This is where the differentiation between “off the shelf” and “custom time and materials” melts away. Every company, with the right harness, can now imbue their alpha into the software that runs their company. I expect this to mean that “off the shelf” is largely replaced with custom software creating a huge opportunity to write these solutions for companies. Build once and sell repeatedly is a laggard GTM motion for a SaaS world that isn’t needed here. Think custom by design, alpha embedded, proprietary by nature. Fin. Good luck to all the players!

@JoshuaBarzon Fascinating the value a woman who takes on the role of wife and mom adds…. When the role is not taken on the numbers skew the other directly and that value add becomes a massive value loss

I calculated what it would cost to replace everything my wife does as a stay-at-home mom. The answer: $131,130 a year. Here's how I calculated that amount. My wife genuinely loves being home with our four children. She homeschools them, manages our home, cooks for our family, gardens, and invests her life in raising our kids. But every so often, she asks whether she should get a job to help financially. Not because she wants a career outside the home, but because our culture can make stay-at-home mothers feel like they are not contributing unless they bring home a paycheck. I always remind her: “You already have a career. You work for our family.” She may not receive a paycheck, but much of what she does saves us money we would otherwise have to earn, pay taxes on, and then spend hiring other people. So I ran the numbers using typical rates in the Des Moines, Iowa area: HOUSEKEEPER 12 hours/week × $20.74/hour $12,942 per year NANNY FOR FOUR CHILDREN 50 hours/week × $23/hour $59,800 per year HOMESCHOOL EDUCATOR 5 hours/day × 180 school days × $25.03/hour $22,527 per year PERSONAL SHOPPER 4 hours/week × $20.58/hour $4,281 per year PERSONAL CHEF 2 hours/day × $38.33/hour $27,981 per year PERSONAL GARDENER 3 hours/week × 30 weeks × $40/hour $3,600 per year TOTAL ESTIMATED ANNUAL REPLACEMENT VALUE: $131,130 This is not meant to be a literal salary calculation. Some responsibilities overlap, but that is part of the point: replacing what one stay-at-home mother does would require hiring several different people. And this still does not account for sick children, overnight care, appointments, curriculum planning, discipline, emotional support, family scheduling, or the constant mental load of knowing what everyone needs. My wife may not receive a paycheck, but she creates enormous value for our family every day. A paycheck is not the only proof that someone is contributing. Thank a stay-at-home mom today.

@AdamSchefter Romo is the best analyst hands down - bring him back

For the time being, analyst JJ Watt will replace Tony Romo, and work alongside Jim Nantz and Tracy Wolfson.

@thecurioustales Twenty one fail

This is the only animal on Earth that eats its own brain, and the reason why should terrify every human. It's called sea squirt. The sea squirt spends the first chapter of its life as something that looks almost recognizable to us. A tiny swimming creature with a tail, a light-sensing eye, a nerve cord running down its body, and a small bundle of neurons steering the whole operation. It hunts, navigates and makes decisions about current and light and direction. For a brief window, it is a mobile animal with a brain doing exactly what brains do, which is process the world in order to move through it intelligently. Then it finds a rock, glues its face to it, and begins digesting the very organ that got it there. Most people hear this and file it under "weird ocean facts." But, the deeper story is one of the most quietly profound statements biology has ever made about what a brain actually is, and why anything grows one in the first place. A brain is metabolically the most expensive tissue an animal can carry. In humans it burns roughly twenty percent of our total energy while making up about two percent of our body weight. Neurons are needy. They demand constant fuel, constant oxygen, constant maintenance, and they punish you brutally the moment supply dips. Evolution does not tolerate that kind of expense for sentimental reasons. If you are paying that bill, you are paying it for one reason and one reason only. Movement. The sea squirt makes this brutally literal. It keeps its nervous system for precisely as long as it needs to solve a movement problem, which is finding the right place to spend the rest of its existence. The eye, the tail, the ganglion, all of it exists to answer a single question: where do I stop? The moment that question is answered and the animal cements itself down, the equipment becomes dead weight. So it eats it. The body breaks down the neurons and recycles the raw material into the filtering apparatus it will use to eat for the rest of its stationary life. The philosopher Daniel Dennett loved this creature for a reason that should make every knowledge worker slightly uncomfortable. He compared the sea squirt reabsorbing its brain to a tenured professor who, having secured a permanent position, no longer needs to think hard. It is a joke with a scalpel hidden inside it. The point underneath is that cognition is not a luxury the universe hands out to make animals interesting. It is a tool for navigating uncertainty. Remove the uncertainty, remove the need to move and choose and adapt, and the expensive machinery stops justifying its cost almost immediately. Why is this important? The thing generating your thoughts right now did not evolve to appreciate art or ponder mortality or scroll through information all day. It evolved as a movement controller. Every abstract capacity you have, memory, prediction, planning, imagination, is built on top of hardware whose original job was deciding where to place a body next. Plants do not have brains because plants do not go anywhere. Coral has no brain. The moment an organism commits to staying put, the entire logic that funds a nervous system collapses. There is a mirror here that most people flinch away from. The sea squirt's fate is a physical demonstration of a principle that runs through every living system including yours. Capacity follows demand. Biology is relentlessly economical, and it does not preserve abilities that go unused. Muscle you stop loading gets metabolized. Bone you stop stressing loses density. Neural pathways you stop firing get pruned. Your brain is running a version of the sea squirt's calculation every single day, quietly reabsorbing the parts of you that the current shape of your life no longer requires. The comfortable interpretation is that the sea squirt is dumb because it stopped moving. The sharper interpretation is that it stopped moving, and so it became dumb, in exactly that order, because that is the only order that makes biological sense. Which raises a question worth being genuinely disturbed by. What happens to a mind that finds its rock? The stable job, the fixed routine, the environment that stopped demanding new navigation. The animal that cements itself down does not experience its own decline as a tragedy. It has no capacity left to notice. The reabsorption of the machinery that would let it register loss is precisely what it loses first. We tend to think of intelligence as something we possess, like a trophy sitting safely on a shelf. The sea squirt suggests something colder and more accurate. Intelligence is something you rent, continuously, and the rent is paid in movement, difficulty, and the ongoing need to figure out where to go next. Stop paying, and the universe repossesses it. Sometimes slowly. Sometimes, if you are a sea squirt, in a single decisive meal.

@jackcoder0 As a host who has booked well over 5,000 stays… I think this is bad advice… the vast majority of hosts would sniff this out and not accept this guest

If this changes how you book your next Airbnb, one ask. Repost the first post so the next person about to tap Reserve on a listing they could have booked for 30% less with one message sees this before their next trip. Follow @jackcoder0 I break down the hidden tools, buried pricing, and quiet platform economics behind the services you use every day.

A woman has hosted over 2,000 guests on Airbnb across 4 properties in 7 years. She's also an Airbnb guest herself roughly 15 trips a year. She knows both sides of the platform better than anyone. She told me something most Airbnb guests have never considered: "I save 30–40% on every trip I book because I know the 9 things hosts can see, do, and adjust that guests never ask about. The platform gives hosts tools to lower your price, upgrade your room, waive fees, and prioritize your booking. Guests never trigger any of them because they don't know the tools exist." She said the gap between what a typical guest pays and what a smart guest pays on the same listing isn't about coupons or deal-hunting. It's about understanding how the host side of Airbnb actually works the pricing psychology, the calendar gaps, the negotiation system, and the 3 messages you can send before booking that change the entire transaction. "You're not booking a hotel. You're negotiating with a person. Airbnb built the tools for that negotiation. Then they designed the guest app to make you forget negotiation is possible." Here are the 9 things she does as a guest that most travelers never try 🧵

@RGIII The program is -#1. Followed by Rudy

Dear Football fans, this is a safe space. What are the top 5 Football Movies of all time? I’ll start. 1. Remember the Titans 2. Any Given Sunday 3. Friday Night Lights 4. Water Boy 5. The Longest Yard

@TheBrokenMap @Chris_Deutsch @mrwtffacts If you think baseball is a mark of athleticism- I question your definition of athlete. Take every professional sport- have those athletes play other sports- the baseball players finish last every time

@Chris_Deutsch @mrwtffacts I was thinking baseball, but I agree with the sentiment in general. I haven’t watched basketball in years.

🇦🇺 At just 18-years-old, Jongkuch Mach, is already 7’6 — taller than any active NBA player. He can touch the rim without jumping, moves fluidly, and led Adidas Eurocamp in blocks. US colleges are currently chasing him as he weighs up Australia vs USA.

@traderDanielle Asking the wrong question. What happens when the focus is moved from “not being trapped” to Joy and self realization

Women's success is not a "threat to marriage." Successful women are more capable of leaving when things go wrong and they are able to support themselves and their children. Women who are financially trapped are forced to stay, despite how bad things may get. All women should be able to financial support themselves. A woman's success should improve the joint partnership, and isn't a threat to a happy and healthy relationship. It's only a threat to a bad one. Signed, -A happily married former single mother that was once trapped and will never be again.

@AdamMGrant Adam - you rarely ask the wrong question, but you are on this case . Are we maximizing for happiness or income? I would measure the items that matter most.

It's sad that women's success is a threat to marriages. 544k couples, 29 countries: Separation is 36% more likely when women outearn their partners. The risk goes up further if they have children. A woman's prosperity should be a source of pride, not relationship conflict.

@MollySOShea @friedberg This is a horrible generalization…. So - let’s spread 93 trillion across 49% of the population and pretend all those people have the same $$ when 2% of that 49% - easily has 90% of the $$

David @friedberg says billionaires didn't cause the wealth inequality gap: "People think there's this small cabal of people that have everything in America." The reality: › $183 Trillion: Total net worth of Americans › $8 Trillion (4%): Net worth of billionaires › $4 Trillion (2%): Net worth of bottom 50% › $170 Trillion (93%): Net worth of middle class "So it is true that the billionaires have 2x as much as the bottom 50%." "But it's $170 trillion that the middle class of America has." " So the middle class is really where all of the net worth in America accumulated." "Yes, there's an ultra-rich group that has a lot of assets, but this is really what won in America in the last half century—that middle class. But the problem is the bottom 50% left behind." "That's I think, what is really driving and motivating this socialism today." "While there is wealth inequality, the statistics are a little bit different than what everyone groks."

@BowTiedBroke I have a 2.2 Build cost for an STR that will do 600k annually …. I own & know exactly where those 1.5 M houses sit on a map that did 200k and now do 100 and can show my houses are doing 160k just 1-2 miles away on the map. Your story is missed data - DM me to discuss more

For the real estate folks who understand this: Cost Segregations that were PUSHED on many newbies entering the real estate market (mainly Airbnb) in 2021-2023 are now becoming the biggest nightmare for those buyers as they try to exit their non performing properties. That massive depreciation they took against their income back in 2021 now needing to be paid back in the form of depreciation recapture. I know some folks who paid $1.5 million for an Airbnb that did $200K in rental income in 2022. DSCR loan at 7%. 20% down. Borrowed $1.2 million. Did 100% Bonus depreciation with cost seg in year 1. Now rental is doing $100,000/yr. Losing money each and every month now after paying mortgage, electric, gas, internet, etc. Need to sell, house is worth $1.2 million (maybe) now. They are faced with not only a large loss for the sale but also the depreciation recapture when it sells. You would be SHOCKED at how many people bought Airbnbs not only for “income” reasons but also because they were told by realtors that they could offset their W2 income by a massive amount in the year they made the purchase. Chickens are coming home to roost.

@AffordAnything The silver spoons really bend the curve and it is so obvious…. What 20 yr olds have $500,000 …. Going out on a limb but 98% ish of the 1% is born into it and started on 3rd base

Most of us have a skewed sense of normal that's set by our neighborhood and work colleagues. Here are the numbers that lay out what it actually means to be rich or poor in the U.S. You're either doing better than you think -- celebrate the win! -- or take heart because you've still got that most important asset of all, time.

@AltcoinDaily Promise he is stacking while talking smack to push down his buy price

Billionaire Investor Philippe Laffont: "I don’t know what to think about #Bitcoin anymore." "I’m a little bit more worried and I would rather bet on is space going to quadruple over the next 20 years or these intelligence models..."

@leadlagreport How many times did stocks like Amazon lose 60-70%

When did you first realize that by definition Bitcoin isn’t a store of value? Was it before or after you lost 50%.

@PeterSchiff @saylor Says the guy who yelled to buy silver at 125. Down 60%…. I’m going to bookmark and save this post… you will look very uneducated in 18 months

The financial house of cards @Saylor built is collapsing. $MSTR's per-share discount to its Bitcoin holdings is soaring, $STRC is tanking, and Bitcoin itself is breaking down, taking the rest of crypto down with it. Soon Saylor will trade in his orange tie for an orange jumpsuit.

@b_co_co 1.8 at 59 is broke for 30 years

My neighbor maxed out his 401k for 20 years. Balance: $1.4 million. He retired at 58. Now he can't touch most of it without a 10% penalty until 59½. He's a millionaire who has to budget like he's broke for 18 months…

@hnshah Have you Seen Glean? It brings Satya's future in action.

Satya’s post is worth reading closely because it gets at the real AI question for companies. Who captures the learning? His argument is that companies are becoming a new kind of learning system. People bring judgment, taste, relationships, context and ambition. AI brings scale, memory, reasoning and execution. The value comes from building a loop where the company gets smarter every time work happens. The important asset is the learning system around the model. That system is built from the record of how work actually gets done. Workflow traces show the path people take. Corrections reveal judgment. Accepted outputs show what good looks like. Rejected approaches sharpen the standard. Private evaluations, domain-specific context and institutional memory give that learning structure. Over time, the company starts to retain more of what used to disappear inside meetings, edits, comments, decisions and individual experience. That is the learning loop Satya is pointing at. The judgment that once lived in a few people’s heads can become part of how the company operates.

It is here and the tech is called Glean