
Daniel Ryan
2.6K posts

Daniel Ryan
@DanielRyanWM
Taxes & Factor Investing. View are my own. NOT financial advice
Washington, D.C. Katılım Temmuz 2020
376 Takip Edilen436 Takipçiler

@investingidiocy There is! You just have to opt-in and pay for it on the checkout screen
Most importantly, he chose fly Spirit so much of this is on him. This is like buying a Ferrari & then choosing to drive home on dirt roads instead of paved roads & being upset your suspension got fucked up
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@EconomPic It’s fine if ppl do that…just maintain the 5% gate. Don’t bump it up to 7%, etc.
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@DanielRyanWM makes sense for everyone as a whole to not redeem, but i don't see how the incentive isn't for everyone to put in for 100% and get as much out now as they can
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The current premium of private credit over public market equivalents is what created this problem given quarterly redemptions are capped.
It incentives all investors to max withdrawal regardless of their long-term outlook or fundamentals.
I figure there are 3 options 1) gate the funds 2) convert to a Closed-End Fund 3) sell their holdings to what actually transacts so can provide liquidity.
Once the highest quality stuff is sold, guessing no way they pursue #3.
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@EconomPic Obviously, it’s fund dependent but I think so. To be safe, I wouldn’t be redeeming above the 5% limit like some are
From a longterm allocator perspective, if a fund started offloading their best loans to fund extra redemptions, that would be a strong signal to avoid the manager
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@DanielRyanWM do you think they can meet 20% / year withdrawals without repricing?
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@ptuomov You will get no disagreement from me on that front.
And yet it matters dramatically from a sales perspective because most allocators I deal with are simply going to look up the fund on Morningstar and see if they like the way the equity curve looks.
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A lot of people ask me for higher volatility alternatives for "capital efficiency" reasons.
And on it's face, it makes sense.
Instead of putting $100 in a 10% vol strategy, you can just put $25 in a 40% vol strategy.
But there are two problems:
1. Versus turnkey portable alpha programs, it pushes the rebalancing onus onto the allocator.
2. It forces the manager to inherit variance drain into their track record, which ruins salability.

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@egr_investor Yeah I do. Experience has been very good, but I was never believer in “more return for less risk”. Obviously, vol is understated but returns have been good
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The entire video is worth the watch: youtu.be/9TAGlknXYW8
Do you own any private equity, credit, or real estate funds? What's your experience been like? Were the returns as good as advertised?

YouTube
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In his most recent video, @benjaminfelix argues that the ongoing push to sell private market assets, such as private equity, private credit, and private real estate, to retail investors is deeply flawed. These investments are aggressively marketed on the premise that they offer higher returns with lower volatility than public markets.
However, Felix explains that this perceived stability is merely an illusion ("volatility laundering") caused by the fact that private assets are not valued daily. When the underlying economic risks and high fees are accounted for, private markets do not offer a magical solution to outperforming public markets.
Let's dig in! 🧵👇
#Investing #Finance #PersonalFinance #PrivateEquity #FinancialLiteracy

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@kieranwgoodwin For years, every IC with an RIA guy on it had listened to me talk private credit and then asked “so how is this any better than Cliffwater?” The kool-aid drinking on that fund by the RIA channel was the worst I’ve ever seen.
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One of those weeks
Phil Bak@philbak1
“That’s what I love about them PE funds. Stock markets crashes, PE NAVs stay the same.”
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@HML_Compounder @EconomPic I think the most rational answer would be that the executive branch of the gov. has taken a unilateral action that has caused oil prices to spike (without going through congress, etc.). Thus, the gov. has an obligation to stabilize the market that they destabilized
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@DanielRyanWM @EconomPic 110% that’s my opinion too. I’m just trying to think through any way you could rationalize this being a practical solution.
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I don’t think I’m being hyperbolic when I say this would potentially be one of the dumbest forms of financial intervention of all time.
reuters.com/business/energ…
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@HML_Compounder @EconomPic sure there are second order effects, but imo you've gotta let markets set prices naturally. It can't be heads I win, tails the gov. bails me out
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@EconomPic Agreed, but playing devils advocate, are there 2nd order effects due to the leverage/financialization of energy markets? If they didn’t expect a sustained physical supply crunch but were worried that fear of one could cause a liquidity cascade, could this ever make sense?
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@ZaidJilani I don’t talk to as many elected dems as I did in 5-10 years ago, but I still say the same thing—it doesn’t matter how many great, transformative policy proposals you have if you can’t do the basic blocking & tackling aspects of the job
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It’s because they’re service driven and have small egos and aren’t seeding constant stories about running unlike Newsom
Jeremiah Johnson 🌐@JeremiahDJohns
It's kind of crazy that Ossoff/Warnock are getting so little buzz for 2028. Two very strong candidates, winners in a key swing state, neither seems to have any huge weaknesses.
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@DadInvest It’s important to remember that he was the head of growth hacking at Fb (and very good at it). The notion that he had any integrity to begin with is kind of laughable
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@HML_Compounder @OptimizedPort My issue is that all of the bundles don’t support HD tier, etc.
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@OptimizedPort Especially for deals. I was paying for Apple and peacock separately but it was big savings to get a bundle.
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@syouth1 Is this basically a way around the standard 6 month post-IPO lock up?
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Filing to register a *listed* closed-end fund that will hold stakes in late-stage unicorns (SpaceX, Anthropic, etc.) via SPVs. Call this one 'Escape from SPV', as LPs in those SPVs will exchange their interests for CEF shares which they can then sell.
spr.ly/6016h7Ozo

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@ptuomov @jasonfurman I’d guess most utilize the mortgage interest deduction
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Obviously, inflation-indexing capital gains (at higher rates) would still be a better policy than the current one even if you wouldn't adapt the investment interest expense treatment. This is because most taxable individuals have very little borrowed money, they don't really borrow but just save. Quantitatively, the mismatch issue is minimal.
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I would add:
3. Not good tax policy if you don't adjust other parts of the system for inflation, most importantly reducing people's interest deduction to only real interest--no longer allowing deductions for the inflation component of interest.
Kyle Pomerleau@kpomerleau
Cruz wants Treasury to declare that the basis for purposes of calculating gains is adjusted for inflation. 1. Illegal 2. Won't have much of an impact on the economy one way or another.
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Warriors chose Kerr over a 23 year old potential star despite a decent likelihood they won’t make the playoffs any of the next few seasons
Jake@EconomPic
I would 100% choose Kuminga over Kerr next year and it’s not particularly close.
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@Max @samlambert @Instacart Cool, so your policy is that the cancellation fee doesn’t apply if you have enough Twitter followers?
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@samlambert @Instacart it’s just following our policies but I’ll make sure you don’t get charged a cancellation fee @samlambert!
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