David Lin, CFA

Now that the budget bill has passed Congress, we can see what the projections look like for deficits, government debt, and debt service expenses. In brief, the bill is expected to lead to spending of about $7 trillion a year with inflows of about $5 trillion a year, so the debt, which is now about 6x of the money taken in, 100 percent of GDP, and about $230,000 per American family, will rise over ten years to about 7.5x the money taken in, 130 percent of GDP, and $425,000 per family. That will increase interest and principal payments on the debt from about $10 trillion ($1 trillion in interest, $9 trillion in principal) to about $18 trillion (of which $2 trillion is interest payments), which will lead to either a big squeezing out (and cutting off) of spending and/or unimaginable tax increases, or a lot of printing and devaluing of money and pushing interest rates to unattractively low levels. This printing and devaluing is not good for those holding bonds as a storehold of wealth, and what’s bad for bonds and US credit markets is bad for everyone because the US Treasury market is the backbone of all capital markets, which are the backbones of our economic and social conditions. Unless this path is soon rectified to bring the budget deficit from roughly 7% of GDP to about 3% by making adjustments to spending, taxes, and interest rates, big, painful disruptions will likely occur.

JUST CLOSED｜ AutoZone Ground Lease, Murrieta, CA | $2M | 4.5% CAP | SoCal All Cash Exchange Buyer | 30-Day Escrow instagram.com/p/CyPQCbHPoK-/…

Recently invited executives from Taiwan Stock Exchange and a Taiwan elder care tech company to visit our Everest Senior Living properties in SoCal. We anticipate future collaborations that will strengthen senior care sectors in both US and Asia. DM to learn new Asia tech ideas!

Let me explain why a 7.38% interest rate is a massive issue even if it’s “historically low” like I’ve been reading. The median sale price is Q1 of 2023 was $436,800. The median household income today is $70,784. 1/7

Naval for kids. 2 years ago my nephew and I had conversation on important ideas from @naval Turned his ideas suitable for a 11 year old conversation. Back then he forbade me sharing the project on any social media. He changed his mind last week, sharing this now.

Everest at Oceanside Senior Living monument sign installed! Financials Q1’23 vs. Pre-acquisition Dec’22: #1: 9% increase in operating income #2: Occupancy increased 72% to 83% #3: 87% reduction in agency care costs #4: 31% reduction in expenses #5: 250% growth in profit

I had lunch with Sam Zell. We talked for over 2 hours. I could ask him any question I wanted. At 81 he is still *ferociously* intelligent and completely authentic. Here are 7 key ideas I learned from our lunch: 1. Go for freedom Freedom allows you to control what you work on. If you control what you work on then you can work on what you love. If you love it you will do it for a long time. If you do it for a long time you will get really good at it. Money will come as a result. 2. It's extremely important to be obsessive about understanding everything you possibly can about your craft. Consider it an obligation. Hold yourself accountable. Keep learning over time. Study the history and know the pioneers. — @bgurley Sam Zell has been doing this for 60 years. Every time I mentioned some obscure figure from the history of business Sam -knew who the person was -knew what company they had built -and had read their biography Every. Single. Time. He has all this information stored in his head. He never looked at any notes or had to Google anything. It was all in his brain. 3. The right information is priceless It can save your life (the right information helped Sam’s family escape the Nazis) and help you build a wonderful business (Sam used an idea he found in William Zeckendorf’s autobiography in both his real estate and business career) 4. Have fun You’d be surprised how many rich people don’t have any fun. Don’t be like these people. Sam is still curious and is seeking adventures all over the world. 5. You have an obligation to share what you have learned Sam flies all over the world to talk to other entrepreneurs (at his expense!) just to teach everything he has learned. He considers it an obligation to pass knowledge onto the next generations. 6. When you a few decades of experience —write an autobiography Sam hated writing his. It was difficult. But it is one of the best things he ever did. His favorite day of the week is Monday. That is the day Sam and his team go over the messages people send Sam telling him how his book changed their life. He finds this deeply satisfying. You will too. 7. If you love what you do the only exit strategy is death Sam will be doing deals, building businesses, and sharing everything he learned until he dies. - - - - “People sometimes ask me when I’ll retire. Retire from what? I love what I do.” — Sam Zell - - - - A scene from our lunch: David: I bought Zeckendorf’s book because you mentioned reading it in your autobiography Sam Zell: Did you read it? David: Not yet Sam Zell: READ IT! David: Yes sir 🫡 - - - - The first 30 minutes of episode 298 is what I learned from having lunch with Sam Zell. I go into a lot more detail than I can fit here. The rest of the episode is what I learned from reading the book Sam Zell told me to read: Zeckendorf: The Autobiography of The Man Who Played a Real Life Game of Monopoly and Won the Largest Real Estate Empire in History by William Zeckendorf You can listen in any podcast player right now!

Traveled to San Antonio TX to check out our manufactured home community project site breaking ground in May. Also visited Warren Buffet’s largest builder of manufactured housing Clayton Homes. There is a huge demand for affordable housing in cities like San Antonio!

ChatGPT prompts that'll save you hours a day at work (ranked in order):

The life of Alexander the Great is filled with incredible, true stories, but the story I find most insightful is a myth about his death. It's full of important life lessons. On his death bed, Alexander the Great summoned his generals and told them his 3 final wishes:

This morning I discovered something *extremely* alarming happening in the car market, specifically in auto lending. I'm now convinced that there is a massive wave of car repossessions coming in 2023. Here's what I discovered (and what no one knows):

Just posted a photo instagram.com/p/ClmFzgxP_CK/…

After 13 years in finance and managing hundreds of millions... Here are 21 truths that will make you more money than any business degree:

I love the Russian people. That is why I have to tell you the truth. Please watch and share.

To all the builders struggling out there: It’s 12 years ago. 6 months earlier, I left my fancy job Talked to 20+ customers Built our site Spent 100 hours a week cranking We finally launched… After a week and $10k in ads, we made <$500 in rev In short, we had failed👇🏽👇🏽👇🏽

How to Get Rich (without getting lucky) ➤ Hyper-visual thread on @naval value-packed masterpiece! Let's read-save-share!

Why Web 3 matters 🧵

Following the right people is the most underrated growth hack in the world. But there are 199,000,000 accounts to choose from... Here are 20 gems that you wished you followed earlier:

“A Roadmap For The Future”: How to not only avoid being left behind in today’s world, but a step by step process on how to thrive (next 5-10 yrs will be one of the easiest times in history to get rich)

If you want to get rich and live your best life... 10 threads to make you healthy, wealthy, and wise: