DefWorlds

I finally see it. There really are five lights.

If you're having a bad day, here's the exact moment that Charlie Brown adopted Snoopy 75 years ago.

@rabbriansamuel בכר vs בחר. Could drash on this for weeks.

Being chosen and being saved are not the same thing. 

@LynAldenContact @Macronaut_ @MarioNawfal Favorite OT verse, Lyn?

@Macronaut_ @MarioNawfal 1 Corinthians 13:4-8

🇺🇸 Trump posted an AI image of himself as Jesus Christ. Then deleted it. Then said it was a doctor. Then Vance said it was just a joke. Three explanations in 24 hours for a post that no longer exists. Might go down as the strangest thing he's ever posted, and we'll probably never know what he actually meant by it...

@ZeeContrarian1 Did you already close the qqq call ratios?

I think we can all agree that a peace deal is off the table for the coming week, and you all know how to make money from this.

@ZeeContrarian1 He always seems to crush vol into weekly vixperations!

New position: ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF ( $SCO ) Portfolio allocation: 2%

@ZeeContrarian1 Thoughts on SLNO?

𝗣𝗛𝗔𝗥𝗠𝗔 𝗕𝗜𝗢𝗧𝗘𝗖𝗛 & 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗢𝗜𝗟 𝗦𝗛𝗢𝗖𝗞 The $XBI (biotechnology index) is down more than 5% this month, and the $DRG (pharma index) is down more than 10% this month! The CEO of United Airlines was quoted over the weekend saying that his business plans are based on oil prices reaching $175 per barrel by the end of next year. Exaggerated? Crazy? Not necessarily… Also over the weekend, Qatar-having lost about 20% of its gas production capacity—estimates it will take 5 years to return to full output. Forward oil contracts (currently ~$98 spot) for one year ahead are trading at around $76. Despite all the manipulation taking place in the global energy market, it is still unclear whether the market is properly pricing in the long recovery time of energy infrastructure in the region. Higher-than-expected oil prices would lead to higher-than-expected inflation, and a return to the not-so-distant reality of interest rates in “Higher for Longer” mode. We have emphasized many times the high sensitivity of $XBI and biotech companies to interest rates-we won’t repeat that here. On the other hand, pharma companies are much less sensitive to interest rates. We are very surprised that pharma is down twice as much as biotech this month. If we must give a forecast and we must—the trend could reverse with a meaningful probability. If interest rates indeed stay “Higher for Longer,” it is quite possible that $XBI will take a hit as a risk asset, while $DRG may decline less, or even rise, as the market shifts toward safety. Wishing you a quiet night and a blessed week

@ZeeContrarian1 I’d really appreciate your thoughts on position sizing and tail risk management for this kind of trade.

𝗔 𝗧𝗼𝗼𝗹𝗯𝗼𝘅, 𝗡𝗼𝘁 𝗮 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆 People in the investment world tell you to develop a strategy. I believe you should develop a toolbox instead. A strategy works in certain conditions and fails in others. That is why so many hedge funds got destroyed in 2022, while I outperformed the S&P by 40%. They simply didn’t have the right tools for that kind of market. Build a toolbox. Have a tool for markets that go down, a tool for sideways markets, and a tool for markets that go up. Then all you need to do is identify the environment and use the right tool. It seems like many on X, like me, don’t see markets roaring higher this year. Maybe sideways, maybe down. Yet most people only know how to buy stocks. That’s the problem. Look at the position below from one of my clients. It’s the same structure I’ve been recommending for the past year. Now imagine he didn’t have this position in his portfolio this month.

@BTCBreadMan Check my GitHub.

Where do you hide your Bitcoin seed phrase? Looking for some clever and original ideas.

@jam_croissant Is there a good meme for the week after?

$SPX on 👸/ 🦥 week be like…

@ServoWealth @dabiggapicta You like avantis as well?

Here’s the cheat code to long-term investing decisions: 1. Lifetime returns dependent on 2 things: asset allocation, not active management, AND discipline to avoid behavior gap 2. Favor stocks (US Market) over bonds 3. If including bonds, keep maturities short (5yrs or less) 4. Own large & small stocks, 60-40 5. For large cap, split 50-50 between high profitability (“good growth”) and value. NO S&P 500,Total market, or Large growth 6. Small cap- keep it simple w/100% value. NO growth! 7. (Not shown), include international developed—60/40 large & small, 100% value 8. Rebalance when allocations 20% +/- target or w/cash flows

@jam_croissant @Montauk_11954 Basically, Landman season 4?

1) Who do you think The US’s 🇺🇸 war in Iran 🇮🇷 is actually against??? 2) Given that… What do you see as the US’s 🇺🇸 #1 & #2 greatest sources of leverage in this Grand War ⚔️??? 3) Are those 2 sources of leverage somehow connected 🪢 to 1 another??? 4) Given that, why might the Strait of Hormuz 🚢 be the most critical front of this Grand War⚔️??? 5) Finally… Why might that mean that this conflict likely won’t (actually) be "very complete, pretty much," for many years??? 🤷‍♂️ #🥐RUMBS. . . . . . . . . . .

@QuantSymplectic Is there a way to incorporate skew via the skew or sdex indexes?

Been working on a framework for classifying volatility regimes using only publicly available VIX closing data from Yahoo Finance. Here we see 2 complementary phase spaces: a vol-of-vol diagram that captures the second derivative of VIX dynamics, and a term structure diagram (VIX/VIX_MA63 vs VIX percentile rank) that captures contango/backwardation conditions. Still experimenting but love the regime classifier approach.

@QuantSymplectic This looks really cool.

@BTCBreadMan @jonthensuddenly Cheap options. High roc

@jonthensuddenly That’s not how options work.

I have a feeling something really big is coming. Buying $105 calls on $STRC.

@bar_sef We are praying for you all.

Fun ☺️

@michaellistman Albania!?

Remember there are those who don't know what "Wag the Dog" means. 🤷‍♂️

@jam_croissant Do you think, as an alternative to traditional capital structure, firms will ever issue call options on their own equity or Arrow-Debreu-style slices of their profit streams?

Options are the true underlying…. Asset values are the simply the derived expected value of the probability distribution. Asset price is a derivative.

@ZeeContrarian1 @danielisdizzy Half the spec-fic literature tells us exactly where it ends!

@danielisdizzy You’ve got this completely backwards. What worries people about AI isn’t the present - it’s the future. Everyone can see what it’s doing today, but no one knows where it ultimately leads.

As Stanley Druckenmiller says, making money isn’t that hard. “The biggest mistake investors make is they invest in the present instead of looking forward. It’s very important never to invest in the present. Always try to envision the situation as you see it in 18 to 24 months.” That’s exactly what’s happening with the AI frenzy right now. The market is obsessing over this year’s free cash flow and ignoring what AI will unlock over the next few years.

@ZeeContrarian1 Ticker reminds me of the word celibate. Very pious!