Dentinatour
1K posts
......near cycle low entries
Investment Wisdom@InvestingCanons
"The best opportunities are usually found among things most others won't do." — Howard Marks
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@MarhelmData How long can these exports last with stockpiles getting depleted. That is the real question
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Teekay Tankers just laid out the bull case for crude shipping. Hormuz disruption has cut Middle East exports by ~10 mb/d, pushing Atlantic Basin exports to record highs.
Result:
Q2 2026 spot rates exploding to:
VLCC: $141.8k/day
Suezmax: $121.8k/day
Aframax/LR2: $98k/day
$TK
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@ed_fin U still think this product tanker bull will be much stronger than the crude bull?
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In Summer 2024, many VLCCs traded clean, stealing upside from LR2s (Traitors! 🔪).
Now, structural VLCC strength is becoming a tailwind for LR2s, as the overall % of the product tanker fleet actually trading CPP drops.
Slide by best-in-class product tanker co, $TRMD
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@ed_fin Aren’t you long term bearish VLCC with Hormuz remaining shut?
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$ECO if we have higher for longer tanker rates this stock is gonna 2-3x from here minimum
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Q1 dividend of $PBR & $PBR.A is approximately $0.286/ADR at current exchange rate. After tax and fee, the net amount is about $0.234/ADR, which is to be paid in 2 equal installments.
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So much for demand destruction. Prices aren't nearly high enough to begin closing the gap to the global supply shortfall.
Jorge ARJONA@jorge_moj
EIA weekly🛢Oil report Total 🇺🇸US🛢️Oil Demand is the highest it has ever been for this time of year‼️ And the monthly reports show that Demand is understated in the weeklies by 300k🛢️/d x.com/i/status/20501…
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$EC dividend, to be paid on May 7, has been finalized. The net payment is US$0.649290 per ADR after a small (0.027%) tax.
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@LukeGromen I mean he makes a very strong argument that works against ur gold thesis
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Finally Azul LNG, CC train 6-7 exp by July and Train 1 GP LNG full pull by June.
US gassy E+P’s are a screaming buy before the ramp really kicks in next year.
Jamie Heard@JamieHeard5
Costa Azul taking first gas a bit early popped the PG&E summer strip 40c this week. Pending some summer heat this could be the beginning of the turn for what has been a huge correction in western gas prices, impacting pricing from Southern California to North East BC. A tighter PG&E, helps tighten Malin, helps renormalize WCSB exports to US, helps AB/BC S&D normalize and AECO repoint to tighter mid west pricing which would bring basis in over the summer from where it trades today. naturalgasintel.com/news/energ%C3%…
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Can’t say I didn’t tell y’all $UAN 💰
Dentinatour@Dentinatour
If you want an asymmetric play on Hormuz buy $UAN. If Hormuz remains constricted for any period nitrogen products are going to blow out and you’ll likely more than double your money. If Hormuz opens up you would still get a double digit dividend yield 💰
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Winners:
• UAE, can ramp production up near 5m bpd
• benefits more from oil price spike now
• ADNOC, billions of additional USD revenue
• US Shale
• Trump administration
• OSV owners in Gulf
• Iran
Losers:
• Saudi, Russia, Iraq, WAF producers
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@ed_fin Refiners and refined product tankers are going to print so much money
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🤯 240,000 bpd capacity, Black Sea, major naphtha and diesel producer + exporter
(((Tendar)))@Tendar
The fires in the Tuapse refinery are apparently getting out of control. Whatever was left of this Russian oil facility will be burnt to the ground.
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@calvinfroedge Nah they will probably use this to promote gay sex
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The good news is we're going to make a dent in the fertility crisis
Javier Blas@JavierBlas
The world’s top condom maker says it plans to raise prices by 20%-30% and possibly further due to the impact of the US-Iran war in the petrochemical industry. Malaysia's Karex Bhd told Reuters is also seeing a surge in condom demand as rising freight costs and shipping delays have left many of its customers with lower stockpiles than usual. Karex produces over 5 billion condoms annually and is a supplier to leading brands like Durex.
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@econ_713 @rickjeff78 Valid. But with ‘22 there was no physics. Now either price pays or we run out of oil
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@Dentinatour @rickjeff78 No, my point is that both instances employed financial suppression as well as physical SPR releases.
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Iran’s only leverage was economic: it needed $200 oil & tanking equities. So the one thing you knew a month ago that the WH wouldn’t allow: $200 oil.
While the Substack crowd hit podcasts to shill $200 crude calls, we told you Trump would seek an off-ramp. Caveat Oil Emptor.
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@econ_713 @rickjeff78 Ur slightly missing the point. SPR is what got oil down as we had excess oil available without any real loss of physical. This time we have a consequential loss of physical and the SPR trick might not be as effective if a solution isn’t formulated quickly within days
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@Dentinatour @rickjeff78 And they did it anyway plus the SPR dump
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@econ_713 @rickjeff78 U didn’t get a large physical loss of barrels in ‘22
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@rickjeff78 You made it partisan. I simply pointed out it isn’t. Keep trying, Ricky Bobby.
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How much money will $PBR $EC make at 100$ brent? Asking for a friend
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@BurggrabenH @BijuSDamodaran Which means stock market up 200% on possible fed printing lol
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What happens if the miserable Houthis block the Bab al- Mandab ?
Alexander Stahel 🌻@BurggrabenH
Record Saudi OSPs making sure Yanbu terminals can load VLCCs to exit south of the Red Sea to deliver into Asia. Going the Suez route means to exports less.
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