Detlef Guertler

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Detlef Guertler

Detlef Guertler

@DetlefGuertler

Journalist and Consultant in Berlin and wherever change happens. All opinions my own. https://t.co/0YF24Fhctd

Berlin Katılım Aralık 2010
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Detlef Guertler
Detlef Guertler@DetlefGuertler·
Brought to you by yours truly: not just a Day After Plan for #Gaza, but also a Decade After Plan for the #MiddleEast: the emergence of an Arabian Union, similar to the creation of the #EU. A long read (4000 words), paywalled and in German, so I'll give you some bits here: 1/n
Das Magazin@tagi_magi

Niemand weiss, wann der Krieg zwischen Israel und der Hamas enden wird: Sicher ist nur: Danach braucht es einen Neuanfang. Kann eine Wirtschaftszone im Stil der EU der Region Frieden und Prosperität bringen? (Abo) tagesanzeiger.ch/essay-nach-dem…

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Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش
As before the war, so too after it, secretary Rubio’s remarks are significant less for what they say and more for what they reveal: the U.S. administration still does not fully understand Iran or how its system actually works. A. The root of the problem is not personnel changes within the Iranian regime. The issue lies in the regime’s core positions, and, more importantly, in Washington’s limited ability to change them. That is the essence of the challenge. B. On leadership outlook: at the outset of the conflict, Iran’ssupreme leader Ali Khamenei was far from pragmatic in ideological terms. Yet he was willing to consider an agreement with the United States, despite viewing it as the “Great Satan”, because he understood it could preserve the regime. This demonstrated that cost-benefit calculations still played a role in his decision-making. C. Regarding internal power dynamics: the removal of Khamenei effectively transformed Iran, for the first time, from a highly centralized system into a more decentralized one. While there is still a considerable degree of alignment, largely anchored by the IRGC, it is now significantly harder to form unified positions. Looking ahead, it is unclear whether this will stabilize. This is a real problem, but it is also a direct outcome of the war itself. D. As for Mojtaba as a potential leader: his rise is primarily a function of lineage following his father’s elimination. The war has, in practice, reshaped the trajectory of the Islamic Republic. Bottom line: Many of Rubio’s observations are valid, but they are also consequences of the war. Had these dynamics been considered in advance, there might have been a stronger case for engaging with Khamenei senior when a centralized authority still existed. The U.S. now faces the challenge of dealing with a system it sought to weaken, while confronting complexities that its own actions helped create. #IranWar
Fox News@FoxNews

EXCLUSIVE: Secretary of State Marco Rubio exposes the issues within Iran’s power structure and how it's preventing progress on peace in the Middle East: “Unfortunately, the hardliners with an apocalyptic vision of the future have the ultimate power in that country.” "Now that you have a supreme leader whose ability is still untested, whose access is questionable, who has not been seen visibly, publicly—has not spoken. We have not heard his voice." @TreyYingst

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Yaroslav Trofimov
Yaroslav Trofimov@yarotrof·
Israel has enough problems and the last thing it needs is to create a new enemy just because someone wants to make a quick buck from Russian war crimes. If enabling the looting of Ukraine becomes Netanyahu’s official policy, it will have consequences beyond Ukraine.
Barak Ravid@BarakRavid

🚨🇺🇦🇮🇱 A senior Ukrainian diplomatic source tells me that if the vessel PANORAMITIS, which is allegedly carrying wheat stolen from occupied Ukrainian territories, enters the port of Haifa and unloads its cargo, it will lead to a crisis in relations between Ukraine and Israel 🚨"We are tracking this new vessel and won’t let this slide. If it’s permitted to dock and unload, there will be fallout, specifically for our bilateral ties", the Ukrainian diplomatic source said 🚨The Ukrainian diplomatic source added: "If this ship and its cargo isn’t rejected, we reserve the right to deploy a full suite of diplomatic and international legal responses" 🚨The Ukrainian diplomatic source said Israel has "essentially shrugged off" our demands regarding the previous vessel that unloaded stolen wheat in Haifa port 🚨"⁠⁠Frankly, this feels like a slap in the face given the strategic goodwill Ukraine has extended - from designating the IRGC as terrorists to criminalizing antisemitism", the Ukrainian diplomatic source said 🚨"Profiting from stolen cargo should be beneath Israel’s dignity", the Ukrainian diplomatic source said

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Robin Alexander
Robin Alexander@robinalexander_·
Frische Folge „Machtwechsel“: Der Politikpodcast Ihres Vertrauens berichtet diesmal: 🔶 Wie der Plan von Friedrich Merz, mit der SPD ein großes Reformwerk zu stemmen, scheiterte. 🔶 Wie nun stattdessen eine Reform nach der anderen abgearbeitet werden soll. 🔶 Warum jetzt die entscheidenden Tage kommen – nicht nur für diese Kanzlerschaft. Hier hören: open.spotify.com/episode/61JmLX… Oder immer werbefrei mit dieser App: play.google.com/store/apps/det… Oder hier: youtube.com/watch?v=oX7UaU…
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Detlef Guertler
Detlef Guertler@DetlefGuertler·
@andreas_krieg @iyad_elbaghdadi How does this translate into real-world action, Andreas? For me, it sounds like - a GCC-Iran deal (or "East enlargement of GCC") - a deterrence alliance to stop trigger-happy aggressors to pursue their interests on the soil of alliance members. Or what else do you propose?
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Dr Andreas Krieg
Dr Andreas Krieg@andreas_krieg·
The future of the Gulf security framework has to exist outside of old dichotomies, accepting - that neither great power will go out of its way to defend the GCC - that Iran is the only geographic certainty in the Gulf that needs to be engaged and tied into the security infrastructure through mutual interdependence - that you need to supplement capacity, capability and know-how from multiple sources - that dialogue alone can't substitute deterrence - that hard power levers need to be readied against neighbours, enemies and assumed partners if necessary, as an act of last resort - that supporting a values/rules-based order is detrimental to long-term interests
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Detlef Guertler
Detlef Guertler@DetlefGuertler·
"Israel macht die Drecksarbeit. Für uns alle." @bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz
Shaiel Ben-Ephraim@academic_la

This is not happening in a vacuum. There has always been a deep hatred of Christianity in Israel. But the recent rise of a new virulent strain of Jewish supremacy has brought it to new heights. Here is a partial list of incidents: 1) There have been 111 hate crimes recorded against Christians recorded in 2024, including 46 physical assaults. Then a total of 181 incidents in 2025, representing a 63% rise in harassment. It is believed most incidents are not reported. The Rossing Center documented 61 physical attacks in 2025 alone, involving hitting, pushing, and the use of pepper spray against identifiable clergy. 2) Spitting is the most common form of harassment, accounting for 60% to 80% of all recorded incidents in Jerusalem's Old City. A significant portion of these attacks (43%) target the Armenian Quarter and the Armenian Patriarchate in Jerusalem. 3) In 2023, footage went viral showing ultra-Orthodox Jews spitting on the ground as Christian pilgrims carrying a cross began a procession from the Church of the Flagellation in Jerusalem's Old City. Five suspects were subsequently arrested. 4) In 2024, an elderly Christian woman in the West Bank suffered a fractured skull after a confrontation with settlers grazing livestock on her land; her home was later attacked. 5) That year a break-in occurred at a Catholic retreat house in northern Israel where sacred items were damaged and replaced with Jewish religious objects. 6) In 2023 more than 30 graves—including those of significant historical figures, were smashed by two suspects wearing religious Jewish attire. The incident was captured on video and widely condemned as a clear hate crime. 6) In 2026 senior Catholic clergymen, including the Latin Patriarch, were temporarily blocked by police from reaching the Church of the Holy Sepulchre for Palm Sunday Mass. Israeli forces reportedly assaulted and beat Christian worshippers and pilgrims attempting to reach the Church. 7) The Christian town of Taybeh in the West Bank experienced multiple targeted attacks, including arson, armed incursions, and racist graffiti. 8) The IDF has repeatedly hit churches in Lebanon. The St. George Melkite Catholic Church was completely destroyed in 2024. The attack killed at least eight people who were using the church as a shelter. A priest’s house and parish offices were also leveled. 9) Two Maronite pastors, Fr. Pierre Al-Rai (Qlayaa) and Fr. Maroun Ghafari (Alma al-Shaab), were killed in recent months during strikes on their respective villages. 10) Israel has repetaedly hit Christian sites in Gaza. At least 3 churches have been destroyed or severely damaged by the occupation. Heritage sites like St. Porphyrius (one of the oldest in the world) and the Byzantine Church of Jabalia have suffered severe damage, described by archaeologists as some of the worst destruction of heritage they have witnessed. 11) Since late 2023, the Armenian community has been locked in a high-stakes legal battle over a "secret" lease of approximately 25% of the Armenian Quarter (the "Cows' Garden") to an Israeli investor for luxury hotel development. Armenians have maintained a constant sit-in protest to block bulldozers and have faced intimidation from armed private security guards. 12) In 2024 and 2025, Jerusalem municipalities threatened to freeze church bank accounts over alleged tax debts, a move Christian leaders called a "coordinated attack" designed to weaken their institutions' financial viability. 13) In southern Lebanon, predominantly Christian villages like Alma al-Shaab have been largely emptied, with residents sleeping in churches for safety before being forced into mass displacement. Some local leaders have explicitly appealed to the Vatican, stating their villages have no military activity but are still being targeted. The war Israel has declared on Christianity has had serious effects. The climate of hostility has led to a measurable impact on the community's future. A 2025 Rossing Center survey found that nearly half of Christians under 30 in the region have considered emigrating due to systemic discrimination and safety concerns. Israel is no friend to Christianity.

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Philip Proudfoot
Philip Proudfoot@PhilipProudfoot·
This is pretty incredible (Dounana by Siba)
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Mario Nawfal
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal·
🇮🇱🇩🇪 Israel's government aircraft "Wing of Zion" is returning home after more than 6 weeks in Berlin. It left Israel hours after the war with Iran started, reportedly to keep it out of range of Iranian strikes. Looks like someone in Jerusalem is feeling optimistic about the ceasefire.
Mario Nawfal tweet media
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal

🇮🇷🇺🇸 The Iran war is not just an energy crisis, it is a food crisis, and almost nobody is talking about it. About a third of all globally traded fertilizer passes through the Strait of Hormuz: the same waterway that has been effectively closed since this war began. For fertilizer, there are no strategic reserves, no alternative routes, and no fast substitutes. Urea prices have surged over 60%, and it is projected that global fertilizer prices will average 15-20% higher in the first half of this year. Here is what makes this more alarming than the oil crisis: Whereas oil does have alternatives, 50% of global food production depends on synthetic fertilizers. If farmers cannot get fertilizer during spring planting season, they cannot simply apply more later, the window closes and the yield is gone for that season. The FAO's chief economist put it bluntly: this logistics bottleneck has no viable workaround in the short term. The world is focused on oil prices and blockades and nuclear talks, but the quiet crisis unfolding in the fields of Asia, Africa, and Europe this spring could outlast the war by years. You cannot negotiate your way out of a failed harvest.

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Daniel Foubert 🇵🇱🇫🇷
The Crusader Kingdom of Jerusalem ended in a complete disaster because King Guy de Lusignan and Renaud de Chatillon did exactly what Trump and Netanyahu are doing right now. The Kingdom of Jerusalem did not fall because Islam was stronger than Christendom. It fell because two men — King Guy de Lusignan and Renaud de Chatillon — decided that provocation was a strategy, that the rules didn't apply to them, and that they could drag a fragile coalition into a war of their choosing on a timeline no one else had agreed to. At the Battle of Hattin in 1187, Saladin didn't defeat Jerusalem. Jerusalem defeated itself. Renaud de Chatillon was a maximalist operating on the logic that audacity is its own deterrent, that if you push hard enough — raid the caravans, strike the convoys, threaten the holy cities — the adversary will eventually capitulate rather than escalate. Renaud raided Muslim pilgrimage routes under active truce, attacked caravans Saladin had personally guaranteed safe passage, and treated every ceasefire as a staging period for the next provocation. He was not reckless by accident. He was reckless by doctrine. He believed the enemy's restraint was weakness. Saladin personally beheaded him after Hattin — a gesture he extended to almost no one else — because some men are too dangerous to ransom. Guy de Lusignan was legitimacy-challenged, politically dependent on his maximalist partner, and structurally incapable of restraining him because restraint means losing the coalition that keeps him in power. Guy didn't want to march into the waterless plateau above Tiberias in the July heat. His best commander, Raymond of Tripoli, told him it was a trap — that Saladin had designed the siege of Tiberias specifically to pull the Crusader army into terrain where it would die of thirst before it could fight. Guy knew this. He marched anyway. Because Renaud and the hawkish barons had made backing down politically impossible. The Crusader army did not lose at Hattin. It suffocated, on its feet, in the sun, before Saladin's cavalry closed in. The structure is identical. A dominant power whose strength is real but whose strategic position is more fragile than it appears. A political leader whose survival depends on a partner he cannot control. A partner whose entire identity is built on escalation and who has long since foreclosed the diplomatic exits. A patient adversary who has read the terrain, prepared the trap, and is waiting for the coalition to march into it of its own free will. Hattin was not a battle. It was the terminus of a political logic that had been running for years, and everyone involved could see where it was going except the people with the power to stop it. Jerusalem fell three months later. The Kingdom had hollowed itself out before Saladin needed to strike it. Some defeats are not inflicted. They are chosen, incrementally, by men who confused audacity with strategy and called the result God's will.
Daniel Foubert 🇵🇱🇫🇷 tweet media
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Detlef Guertler
Detlef Guertler@DetlefGuertler·
@Davidchorts @citrinowicz Which survival? There are not that many Iranians willing to fight for the survival of their regime. But obviously much more of them are now willing to fight for the survival of their country, their civilization, their culture.
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Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش
There is little doubt that alongside preparations for negotiations and a potential framework agreement, all sides are also preparing for the collapse of the diplomatic track. While the United States is concentrating forces in the region, Iran is doing the same in its own way, meaning reopening and reinforcing underground tunnel networks, reactivating missile “cities,” and preserving large stockpiles of missiles and launchers that were not destroyed but rather sealed and protected deep inside mountainous terrain. If and when negotiations fail, escalation is likely to be both rapid and highly violent. The scale of damage could exceed anything we have seen so far. While Iran would likely sustain significant damage, its capacity to retaliate should not be underestimated. The impact on Gulf states, global energy markets, and the broader international economy could be severe. This brings us back to the central strategic question: what is the actual objective of a war? Any serious assessment must recognize that there is no such thing as a quick, decisive “knockout blow” in this context. More importantly, the Iranian regime is fundamentally ideological in nature. It is far more likely to absorb heavy costs than to capitulate. There is no single military operation, no matter how large or sophisticated, that will compel the Islamic Republic to abandon the ideological foundations on which it is built. #IranWar
Mohammad Ali Shabani@mashabani

This tracks with developments on the ground and Trump's general approach (try the same thing and expect a different outcome/escalate to de-escalate). Absent a deal, next phase of the war could be more violent especially as US naval forces are now within Iran's reach.

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Iran in Ghana
Iran in Ghana@IRAN_GHANA·
Dear Italy, Your PM just defended Pope and lost an ally in Washington — the Commander in Grief, yet the most 'powerfool'man on earth. We'd like to apply for the vacancy. Our qualifications: 7,000 years of civilization, a shared love of poetry, architecture, and food that takes longer to prepare than Trump's attention span. The only thing Iran and Italy have ever fought over is who invented ice cream. Faloodeh came first. Gelato came louder. We've been in a 'cold' war over this for 2,000 years.
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Peter Piksa
Peter Piksa@peterpiksa·
@MasterMaliq Since you asked for one Verse, here is a famous one. It shows how vile and wicked this ideology in reality is.
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Maliq
Maliq@MasterMaliq·
You see that Book called the Quran? Wallahi, it's the best thing you will ever read in your life. Full of wisdom, guidance, peace, and light for the heart. One page can change your entire perspective. One ayah can heal what years of pain couldn't. If you haven't opened it with an open heart yet... what are you waiting for?
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Bader Al-Saif بدر السيف
The Gulf states need to unify their ranks, invest in local defense capacities, review their security partnerships and work on regional security. We should not only count on the Iran-US negotiations: we need to talk directly to Iran despite (or even because of) its belligerence. It will be a difficult process but one we need to embark on nonetheless. Part of my discussion at @CarnegieMEC.
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Detlef Guertler
Detlef Guertler@DetlefGuertler·
@MKuefner So neither a word about Spain nor about the EU Israel Association Agreement…
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Michaela Kuefner
Michaela Kuefner@MKuefner·
Readout phonecall between Merz and Netanyahu tonight: 🇮🇷 Merz "supports" diplomatic efforts between 🇺🇸 & 🇮🇷 🇱🇧 "encouraged" Israel’s PM to start direct peace talks with Lebanon. Israel should "end the fighting" & Hezbollah disarm 🇵🇸 warned: "There must not be a de facto partial annexation of the West Bank.“
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Detlef Guertler
Detlef Guertler@DetlefGuertler·
@sfrantzman Best thing "for Iran" would be if Iran wins and its proxies lose. Would make clear that Iran's strength is the nation, not the religion. Just like it has always been throughout the last 5000 years. (Would also be the best outcome for Israel btw.)
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