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Dave Cell
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Dave Cell
@DetroitDaveCell
Suffering from Truth Tourette's. XY, 71yo, m52y, ASD/ADHD, INTJ. Retired programmer, MechEng, factory rat, polymath, photog, gearhead.
Cañon City, Colorado USA Katılım Nisan 2009
629 Takip Edilen341 Takipçiler
Exactly. This is what I think is going to happen. Those big AI datacenters that everyone is het up about aren't going to be a big thing for long because people will buy their own AI and run it on local hardware. If you are a business using an AI, do you want to have your business vulnerable to that third-party? Reliant on that third-party? If an in-house AI gives you 95% of the capability, which goes up all the time, with full control, why wouldn't you do that? Of course you'd do that. And that's what will happen. The future of AI is the department and the desktop. IMO, at least.
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A few days ago I wrote that disruption from below is the fate that awaits the big AI inference providers.
This analysis, which I think is sound, strongly reinforces that projection. The upward pressure on costs is inexorable. But the harder the big providers push to recover a viable revenue stream, the stronger the incentive gets for their customers to bail out.
By "bail out" I mean buying on-premises AI engines that sacrifice some of the speed and capability of frontier models in return for giving customers better control over their future inference costs.
This is an absolutely classic setup for disruption from below. Because both the expensive frontier models and the cheap low-end models are going to keep getting better.
As I pointed out before, at some point the cheap low-end models will get good enough and the bottom will fall out of the cloud inference market. With the cloud inference providers desperately raising their prices rather than lowering them, the jaws of that trap will close faster.
Owen Gregorian@OwenGregorian
The current AI pricing was always going to go away | Arnon Shimoni, Arnon Shimoni The current AI pricing was always going to go away. It just doesn’t make sense. Microsoft canceled internal Claude Code licenses this week (for whatever reason, even if it’s because they integrated it), Uber blew its entire 2026 AI budget in four months, and GitHub is dropping flat-rate plans across its products. You’ll see the framing “the AI subsidy era is ending” which is a polite way of what everyone’s been doing when they slap AI features into every tier of their product on a bet that inference costs would keep falling. They didn’t and the cost curve is bending the wrong way, and the labs have no choice except to pass that along. Did we collectively forget second order thinking? Each model generation, costs per token did fall in theory, sometimes 10x less but that was for comparable quality… Lots of people extrapolated and built business models on the extrapolation, which… isn’t how you think about it. Second-order thinking anyone? Everyone who deals with road planning knows about is induced demand. Each new capability invents new demand. Highways are the textbook case. Add a lane, you get new commutes. The commutes weren’t there before the lane. AI is the same shape. Cheaper inference doesn’t reduce the bill, it expands what people ask the model to do. Now my reasoning queries take >4 minutes, where the old ones took 2m… Agentic workflows make 50 calls where the old workflow made one. Unit cost falls, units explode, but still the total spend goes up. Anyone selling a flat-rate “AI assistant” assumed user behavior wouldn’t change. It did. It always does. The second is that the supply side stopped cooperating – memory and GPU economics are moving against you. Memory got 4x more expensive. GPUs got >95% more expensive. Frontier training and inference run on Nvidia accelerators paired with high-bandwidth memory. The ceiling isn’t transistors anymore, it’s HBM and the advanced packaging that bonds it to the compute die. That ceiling is one factory deep. TSMC’s CoWoS packaging line is the bottleneck for accelerator supply. SK Hynix dominates HBM, with Samsung lagging and Micron behind that. None of them can add capacity overnight. These are 18-to-36 month commitments, minimum, and they were planned for a world that under-forecast demand by an order of magnitude. So GPU pricing is what scarcity pricing looks like. Top-end accelerators today are roughly 2x more expensive than the previous generation at comparable cluster scale. HBM prices have 4x’d in 18 months. Power and cooling are now real constraints in places nobody used to model power for, which is why every hyperscaler now has a “we’re building a gigawatt campus” story and a nuclear-PPA press release. Anthropic’s CFO testified under oath this March that the company spent $10 billion on compute and made $5 billion in revenue (Ed Zitron has the math). The labs are underwater on inference. They’re raising prices to keep the lights on. Companies that sold flat-rate AI-everywhere products are now sitting on a margin problem they architected themselves into. The bet was that one of these curves would bend in their favor. None of them did, probably none of them will, certainly not on the timeline their pricing assumed. What changes from here The product question shifts. It stops being “where can we add AI?” and starts being “which use cases earn the inference cost they burn?” That’s a harder roadmap to write. It also changes the pricing surface, which is the part most product teams haven’t internalized. Three architectures handle a moving cost. None of them are new. All of them are uncomfortable for sales teams that grew up selling seats. Per-action. Every API call, every generation, every agent step has a price. Revenue scales with cost because they’re indexed to the same underlying event. Twilio has run this since 2008. AWS has run a version of it since 2006. The downside is transparency cuts both ways. Customers see the meter, and they negotiate. The upside is your gross margin doesn’t depend on guessing how hard your power users will hammer the system. Credits. Prepaid buckets. Customer buys 100,000 credits, burns them down on whatever, refills. Credits smooth cash flow and let you mix model costs behind a single unit, which is the only sane way to handle a product that routes between five different inference providers. The trap is breakage. Snowflake credits are infrastructure, customers understand what they’re buying. Gift-card credits are stranded assets, and customers can tell which one they bought. You only get to do the second one once. Hybrid. Base seat with included credits and metered overage. Most enterprise sales motions accept this without flinching, because the seat number still anchors the contract and the meter is the safety valve. It’s the design most AI-native products converge to within their first repricing cycle. Not my favourite, but whatever, it tends to work. The shape isn’t the point by itself, but rather whether the line moves when the cost line moves. Per-seat is the one architecture that pretends costs are fixed. Everything else is some flavor of indexing revenue to the underlying event. The impossible choice If your pricing can move with cost, you get to keep building. You can ship the agentic workflow, the heavier reasoning model, the slow expensive feature for power users, and you have a way to be paid for them. If you’re locked into per-seat (or flat, or whatever) – you pick between two losing options. Eat the margin and watch it compress every quarter your customers’ usage grows. Or strip AI out of your cheaper tiers and watch your activation rate fall off the lower-priced cohorts that used to be your funnel. Both options are visible on the next board deck. Neither one of them looks fun. arnon.dk/the-current-ai…
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Dave Cell retweetledi
“Emotional intelligence” has turned into a feminist buzzword used to shame men for not reacting emotionally like women do.
But real emotional intelligence isn’t crying on command or endlessly talking about feelings.
It’s emotional regulation.
And men are objectively better at it under pressure.
Men built civilizations, fought wars, worked dangerous jobs, handled crisis, buried pain, stayed calm, and still performed.
Meanwhile modern society calls emotional impulsiveness “emotional intelligence” and emotional control “toxic masculinity.”
No.
A man who can regulate his emotions instead of being ruled by them is emotionally intelligent.
Discipline > emotional chaos.
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@jamesawhiite This is simply a clue test. Only an idiot is in favor of so-called Daylight Savings Time, year-round or otherwise.
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It’s imperative that we revert to STANDARD, not Daylight time, for two reasons, one of which you may have never considered.
You know the first: solar noon is closest to 12 o’clock all year. That means an equal number of hours before and after noon each day.
This also means earlier sunrises which are significantly better for establishing a healthy circadian rhythm.
The second reason is that nearly ONE THIRD of US counties are in the wrong timezone.
A significant swath of the country isn’t only an artificial hour ahead because of daylight time… but TWO HOURS ahead of true solar time.
Year-round daylight time, especially without recalibrating time zones, would establish this error permanently, affecting millions of Americans.
We should be letting the Sun dictate the day the way God made it. Arbitrary, artificial tampering would be worse for us all.
Fix the time zones and affix standard time.
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@romanhelmetguy @balajis That's always been true of Leftists.
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Literally zero words in that entire reply are even attempting to justify the idea that little sovereign city states of digital nomads can survive. It’s just regular multipolar slop. If China becomes so dominant that the USA itself willing capitulates, then your imaginary cities are way way more fucked.
The closest you get to actually arguing in favor of your beliefs is “much will be unpredictable” and “the Internet may outlast the American Empire.” It’s all just hand-waving and magical thinking.
Sure, the Internet will survive. So will the radio. So? These are communication technologies. All actual physical territory will be controlled by whoever wins the USA vs China Cold War.
Did you really dedicate your life to creating a radical political system without even being able to articulate a half-way believable argument for its viability?
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PRINT OUT THE INTERNET
Ok. Let me make it extremely concrete.
Where did this giant sprawling datacenter come from?
It was printed out from the Internet.
Specifically, Zuck used the Internet to gather men, make money, organize materials, purchase territory, and shape it to advance Meta's goals.
The principal such goal is, ultimately, the replication of Meta itself. This datacenter makes money in the cloud, which enables Zuck to purchase more land, which he repeats all over the earth.
Think of it as viral growth, but in the physical world. Now extend that beyond Meta, towards any Internet tribe...such as your following.
After all, where was your following built? Was it built one handshake at a time? No, it was built on the Internet.
And where do you spend your time? Do you spend it convincing people in a small town? No, you probably spend it on the Internet.
And where do you make your money, use your money, find your information, talk to your ideologically aligned friends? Again and again, the Internet.
As Orwell said, to see what is in front of one's nose needs a constant struggle. The Internet is, right this moment, in front of your nose, as you're looking at your screen.
Yet despite being the single most important force in the world, the thing that billions personally engage with for hours per day, the driving force that essentially didn't even exist in daily life just a few decades ago, perhaps the most popular thing humans have ever created...the Internet is still somehow underestimated.
After all, the Internet is now much larger than America, with billions of users. The Internet is actually much wealthier too, as it's the only thing with global economic scale comparable to China. The Internet also now drives every single political and military event, from the initial Twitter-driven election of Trump and Brexit, to crypto and AI, to the advent of drone warfare.
In fact, the Internet was in part built by America to outlive America. That's why Paul Baran of RAND proposed a packet-switched network, so that the Internet could resist a nuclear attack. ARPA eventually adopted the same blueprint on efficiency grounds.
But Baran's initial idea remains important: even if the American state went down, the Internet's network would stay up. Concretely, what it means is that brilliant Americans designed a communications system that could survive even as everything else went down. So that we could restore America from cloud backup.
We might need to draw on that property. We might need to print out the Internet, to organize social networks in the physical world, to gather peers together online to start building the societies we believe in offline.
Because if we can print out a datacenter, we can also print out a new city.
Roman Helmet Guy@romanhelmetguy
You should read this just to understand how silly these tech guys are when it comes to politics. Balaji thinks that if shit hits the fan in the USA, tech people can save themselves by fleeing to…the internet.
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@LisaBritton Female empowerment, so-called, has been a disaster. For females, and humanity in toto. Time to make it stop.
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Something that always seems to be missing from these lists: make women accountable.
I’m tired of this kind of one-sided blaming and shaming, whether that’s men or society in general. 𝘞𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘯 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘢𝘨𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘺. Include that. Now 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵’𝘴 female empowerment!
No filter Skin@NoFilterSkin
You want fewer abortions? Make birth control free. Make parenting affordable. Make men accountable.
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@avidseries Going along with crazy people in their craziness is not helping them or respecting them; it is exactly the opposite.
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Trans activists: “Just call people what they want to be called. It’s basic decency.”
OK, maybe this is fine in personal interactions. But, at a policy level, the denial of biological reality becomes a civilizational threat because it obliterates one of the most fundamental realities of human existence and replaces it with a requirement that we affirm the disordered thinking of a small percentage of individuals.
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@robbystarbuck I got beat up my entire life for being that boy. It's no picnic. People like to say they admire you, as here, but in my experience they just harass you. The nail that sticks up is pounded down.
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That boy who didn’t kneel is more valuable than 10,000 who do kneel. Boys like him became men who made the modern world. Never kneel.
David J Harris Jr@DavidJHarrisJr
🚨BREAKING: A teacher brought her students on a school field trip to a mosque, where an imam taught the children about Islam, demonstrated how to wear burqas on the girls, and instructed the group to kneel for prayer. Only one young boy refused to kneel. The clip from the visit (reportedly involving young scouts or schoolchildren) has gone viral, sparking outrage over concerns of religious indoctrination.
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@CynicalPublius Give it up. Hasn't 1,400 years of experience taught you the truth about Islam and Muslims? Trying to shame them is even worse than trying to shame Democrats. They are *proud* of what they do.
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OK, for those of you who are not NFL fans, please allow me to identify the folks involved here:
1. Jaxson Dart is the second year quarterback of the New York Football Giants. He is from Utah, graduated from Ole Miss, and is a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints. Yesterday he introduced President Trump at a political rally in New York, not too far from New York City.
2. Abdul Carter is a second year edge rusher for the New York Football Giants. He is from Philadelphia and graduated from Penn State. He is a devout Muslim who prays to Allah on the field before games, and is extremely open about his faith in and out of the locker room. When Carter saw that his teammate had the temerity to accept the honor of introducing President Trump, he ripped him on X.
3. Both Carter and Dart were 1st Round draft picks last year, and both had strong rookie seasons. Giants’ ownership and management hopefully consider them to be the cornerstones of a team-wide revival to be led by new head coach John Harbaugh (a Super Bowl winner with the Baltimore Ravens and also someone who is not afraid to meet with President Trump). (That optimism exists even though Carter could not stay awake in team meetings last season.)
So with that background in mind, I have this to say to Abdul Carter:
Muslim terrorists destroyed a large swathe of New York City in the name of Allah, yet you are accepted on your team and in NYC, and no one challenges your beliefs or your right to express them. So how about you shut the fudge up, focus on learning how to sack the QB at the NFL level, learn how to stay awake in team meetings, and stop tearing your team apart when your teammate is given the honor of introducing the President of the United States of America?
This is a free country. You are free to worship a deity that enslaves women, and Dart is free to say hello to the President. How about you just accept that, Abdul?
Deal?
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Meteorologist Chris Martz used the North American Drought Atlas (built from tree-ring data) to track Great Plains drought across the past 1,500 years.
It shows severe drought regularly hit the plains long before industrial CO2.
The 1818 to 1825 drought stands out. So too does the 1855 to 1865 Civil War drought. The little mentioned 1950s drought is also clear, which followed the devastating Dust Bowl.
Further back, the worst known plains drought came during the Medieval Warm Period. It lasted around 400 years with only brief breaks.
That dwarfs anything post-1950. Today's droughts can of course damage farms and local communities, but they are far from unprecedented, and are not proof of a CO2 driven crisis.
The Great Plains have always been drought-prone.
The 1,500 year record destroys The Narrative.
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Dave Cell retweetledi
It's an absurd contention that world power/influence can be gotten via asymmetric tactics...if true then every country would resort to extortion, piracy and terrorism
The only real power Iran has achieved has been via TDS-afflicted media which keeps repeating this propaganda
Anne Applebaum@anneapplebaum
"On the present trajectory, Iran will emerge from the conflict many times stronger and more influential than it was before the war. It will exercise leverage with dozens of the richest nations in the world." From Robert Kagan, @TheAtlantic theatlantic.com/international/…
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@Electroversenet Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant. It's plant food.
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@TheShadowIntelX When I went to college in the 1980s as an adult it was obvious to me that they weren't teaching a single thing you couldn't teach yourself from books, with the exception of the lab work. And there are videos for that. College has been obsolete since Gutenberg.
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Elon Musk just put the entire university system on trial.
Not the curriculum. Not the professors. The premise.
Musk: “You don’t need college to learn stuff. Everything is available basically for free. You can learn anything you want for free.”
For a thousand years, universities held one monopoly. Access. You paid the toll or you stayed ignorant.
The internet erased that in a decade.
Every lecture. Every framework. Every textbook. Free. From any screen on Earth.
The six-figure tuition is no longer buying knowledge. It is buying a signal.
Musk: “There is a value that colleges have, which is seeing whether somebody can work hard at something, including a bunch of annoying homework assignments, and still do their homework assignments.”
That is the product. Not intelligence. Not creativity. Not vision. Compliance.
You are paying $200,000 to prove you can tolerate bureaucracy on a schedule.
Musk: “Colleges are basically for fun and to prove you can do your chores. But they’re not for learning.”
The entire system is a sorting machine for corporate HR. It does not measure what you can build. It measures whether you can sit still, follow directions, and deliver on command.
Four years of obedience dressed as education.
Musk: “If you’re trying to do something exceptional, you must have evidence of exceptional ability. I don’t consider going to college evidence of exceptional ability.”
The system optimizes for average. It rewards the compliant. It certifies the patient. It quietly filters out everyone who refuses to wait for permission.
The ones who reshaped the modern world never finished the test.
Musk: “Gates is a pretty smart guy, he dropped out. Jobs is pretty smart, he dropped out. Larry Ellison, smart guy, he dropped out.”
They did not drop out because it was too hard. They dropped out because the speed limit was too low.
The most dangerous thing a university does is convince a generational talent that finishing the syllabus is the achievement.
It is not. It is the floor.
A degree is a receipt for compliance. The future has never belonged to people who finish their homework. It belongs to the on
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@LeaderJohnThune @POTUS Senator Thune, you may not be a traitor under the definition of a traitor in the Constitution, but you certainly fit the dictionary definition of traitor as regards your Party, your President, your constituents, and the People of America. Our own version of Starmer. Go. Resign.
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Dave Cell retweetledi
@DanCrenshawTX Why don't Republicans propose a new wing "History of the Democratic Party" at the Smithsonian?
We can display all those statues of Democrats, erected by Democrats, that Democrat mobs keep wanting to tear down.
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@baseballcrank Way to cherry pick which occupations to chart so you can arrive at your pre-chosen result.
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The most striking part of this chart is how much bluer the bluest occupations are than the reddest are red. Progressives & liberals are far likelier to live in a monopartisan/monocultural bubble.
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@baseballcrank Which group does useful things in the world, and which group consists of parasites?
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