Discounted Trash Flow

TRUMP: WANT WARSH TO BE INDEPENDENT

My net worth increased $245k in the last 30 days. That's a top 5% salary for a 33 year old earned while doing nothing. That's the beauty of compound interest. The bigger the snowball, the faster it rolls.

Semis is now firmly the FOMO trade. Regardless of fundamentals, every manager is feeling the pull of the seemingly infinite money glitch of owning semis. Lots of generalists I've spoken to in recent weeks have sharpened their pencils on the space, with some shifting meaningful portions of their book into select hardware names. So while no doubt pods are in semis and using internet/software as funding sources, the rotations of capitals are occurring in LOs that are obv very conscious of lagging benchmarks. Interestingly, the generalists venturing into semis are unconstrained by the knowledge/experience of how low quality some of these names were considered previously, or how cyclical the fundamentals of these stocks have been historically. Rather, it's easier to come to the space with a blank slate and form a view around the sustainability of the supply/demand imbalance in memory persisting. We have not done a great job at playing this. We own $NVDA and $ASML as they're quality businesses and we can get comfortable around the valuation. But they have much lower torque to the trade vs. say memory prices going parabolic and won't have the same insane earnings beats. We have been waiting for a pullback which very much has not occurred in some of the semi stocks we'd be comfortable owning.

idk who needs to hear this, but squeezing +9% today, is not a positive indicator - $BSX

Diligence in 2026 is wild. My friends in PE are now spending the weekend before IC trying to rebuild the company they're acquiring in Claude Code. If the clone works, the deal dies. Cheapest moat test in human history.