Duncan Mcclements

@MattRyanTucker @bswud @TACJ Yep mean substitutes in econ sense: can spend more at margin on transmission upgrades to reduce CM (imports/diversification so less need for reserves). Means that CM drop overstates saving bc driven by transmission substitution, breaking this apart messy so used today's values

@DuncanMcClement @bswud @TACJ How are the capacity market and transmission substitutes? You'd still need a capacity market with maximal transmission investment. Do you mean that balancing charges and transmission upgrades are substitutes? That would make more sense

Our latest two nuclear power projects are going to end up disgracefully expensive. Mind you, I think that their transmission and balancing costs will be near zero, so they are probably still cheaper than marginal solar or wind on a CfD, which costs about £200 per mwh once spillover costs are included.

@MattRyanTucker @bswud @TACJ CM/transmission are substitutes: T-4 cleared low partly bc more transmission, Ben James has TNUoS £40→£105/HH. Low CM/more transmission are mirror image. Used current values for both in blog, didn't decide split; headline maybe lower but gap not v big: if full £22 ~9% of total

@bswud @TACJ @DuncanMcClement so the 2030 capacity market T4 auction cleared at £27/kW/yr, for a total capacity of 40GW (overall spend ~£1bn). Lets say CP2030 is achieved and 95% of gen is renewable, thats ~300TWh of renewables. This gives a spend per MWh of £3/MWh, a lot less than £22/MWh!

💫 We’re launching the Centre for British Progress Our founding essay: Rediscovering British Progress is a case for growth that drives shared progress, rooted in Britain's values and industrial heritage. It all starts with a postcard from 1870 👇 britishprogress.org/articles/redis…

@ChrisSpoke @inferencemag 3-9pp above 2-3pp typical growth!

@DuncanMcClement @inferencemag 3-9% or 3-9pp above 2-3% typical growth?

NEW: Why will AI probably not cause explosive economic growth in the immediate term? The story in San Francisco goes like this: Soon we'll create AI researchers → they'll recursively self-improve → superintelligence → 30%+ economic growth Reality might differ. Here's why:

Want the full analysis with detailed methodology and data? Read more at @InferenceMag: inferencemagazine.substack.com/p/how-much-eco…

Why so "low"? Capital: new workers need capital Baumol effect: least-automated sectors bind Engel effect: wealth goes to harder-to-automate services

@bpritcha @inferencemag In the renewables case, batteries are £11.62 of the £106 cost - so large prices falls only have small direct changes. Indirect effects are also small - an additional 24GWh of batteries even if free would only reduce costs by £5 via greater renewables potential

@inferencemag OK, this is great, and I agree the UK has to fix its nuclear problem. My quibble is with the technical appendix, which purports to show why renewable power is not viable. It does not discuss the trend line in battery cost, or the large price falls in 2024 (links to 2023 data)…

In the next 2 years, newly built AI datacentres will demand roughly 200 times as much power as Liverpool! 👇Our proposal below sets out how the UK can catch this wave of growth and build a new industry for the future

🚨 New Paper Alert 🚨 🐔 𝐶𝑜𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑑 𝑈𝑝 ✍️ Duncan McClements and Jason Hausenloy ❗ In the first calculation of its kind in the UK, we found that our planning system is costing the UK economy 𝐮𝐩 𝐭𝐨 £𝟏𝟑𝟖.𝟓 𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫 👇

Really cool blog by the excellent Duncan McClements and Jason Hausenloy on mandatory insurance being superior to regulation. @MRJKilcoyne modelthinking.substack.com/p/insuring-pro…

Are overly prescriptive regulations why Britain is stuck? In our latest post, "Insuring Progress", @DuncanMcClement and I analyse how outcome-based regulation & mandatory insurance can boost growth in childcare, energy, housing. Link: modelthinking.substack.com/p/insuring-pro… (Our entry for the @txp_io blog prize)

1/12 🧵 Exploring an intriguing idea: could schools and universities be funded by a % of future student income, rather than upfront fees? This model may reshape the education landscape and the workforce in the #UK.