Methuselah

@Winston_104 Wait I missed the second pic. I see what you mean now. I do suspect the hook is something slipping or giving near the CMB. But if that is shedding vs some magnetic reconnection vs something else, I am uncertain.

@Winston_104 By hook , do you mean the dip down in the early 2000s?

Good news: the video is up discussing the recent oddities in polar motion. Better news: we're not tipping over tomorrow. Best news: I think I pronounced Geoforschungszentrum more or less correctly. youtube.com/watch?v=VGk4Xm…

AAM + OAM (atmosphere + ocean) can account for 1-2 mas/day. So yes, there is more to the story than just that. And the wobble getting smaller still haunts me. But I think it is a bit of a reach to say that CMB shedding is causal. To be fair I don't know what it is- but I am skeptical we can assign causality with much confidence yet.

@EcdoPrep AM can't account for it, you'd have to reach for something like anti-matter or a dark star etc. The hook we had in April literally halted PM procession for over a day.

By "not tipping tomorrow" I was specifically referencing that the little accelerations over the past few weeks are entirely explainable via atmospheric + ocean forcing. I disagree that the hooks are as dangerous as some people think. They look strange. I don't understand them. But the magnitudes of movement are so small. It would take many of them and larger to really move the needle.

@EcdoPrep A/H/OAM, how anti-correlated we are with LOD & how much of an effect it has on PM just shows how decoupled and collapsing we are. A few more hooks like the one we just experienced the past few days and our MoI changes. Unsure how you're concluding we're not tipping tomorrow?

I think it is worth discussing why the Euler axes show such fractured plates. Imagine a rugby ball laying on its long end. It is repeatedly squished, first from the top, then from the sides, repeatedly. The Euler axes are the 'tips' of the rugby ball. For most spots on earth, the crustal flexure involved in S1->S2->S1 is mostly along one axis. But at those tips, it is equal part flexure along two perpendicular directions. you can't just crack one way- you have to crack both ways. Preview from ecdo-prep.org/tectonic/

In ECDO, there is still tectonic shifting. Two different things. In fact the tectonic microfractures center on the two ECDO Euler Axis points. ECDO explains why the crust is not in complete uninhabitable shambles, with far higher cragged mountains and phenomenal canyons everywhere... (what would happen if a crustal displacement were to occur). Mountains and tectonic plate migration are very miniscule compared to what a crustal detachment would actually do.

Earth Disaster Cycle vs ECDO youtu.be/zUkO9jeR1VU?si… via @YouTube @EthicalSkeptic @Kitsune_in_VA @zachariaspro @HashZappa @JasonWilde108 @EcdoPrep @junhoBTC @OMApproach @stephXskystory

@HashZappa @Hurmanetar8 @SunWeatherMan @YouTube @EthicalSkeptic @Kitsune_in_VA @zachariaspro @JasonWilde108 @junhoBTC @OMApproach @stephXskystory A agree with the point that crustal displacement would interrupt the volcanic hotspots. I do not follow the discrepancy between ECDO and mountain building- can you explain?

My biggest issue with ECD crustal displacement is those hot spots. If the crust slips, how do the hotspots follow? My biggest issue with ECDO is mountain building. This is why I am trying to model both. The science isn't settled, but us mere humans thrive off visuals. If my work helps bring more brain power into the space then mission accomplished. If you want a true "unsee" type event, drive all of the highways of the Great Basin. Whatever happened 12kya is still very evident in that high desert region.

@Hurmanetar8 @SunWeatherMan @YouTube @EthicalSkeptic @Kitsune_in_VA @zachariaspro @HashZappa @JasonWilde108 @junhoBTC @OMApproach @stephXskystory My favorite phrase to describe the feeling is "things you can't un-see". I can't unsee the pyramids. I can't unsee antipodal volcanic hotspots. I can't unsee the Nazca lines.

@SunWeatherMan @YouTube @EthicalSkeptic @Kitsune_in_VA @zachariaspro @HashZappa @JasonWilde108 @EcdoPrep @junhoBTC @OMApproach @stephXskystory In fact I think the first time I read ECDO I only skimmed/sped read it and walked away and stared at the hills for a while as the certain reality of it hit. I know this isn’t scientific and it’s the exact opposite of what TES just said to do, but when you know you know.

@JimWindweather I wish to understand your logic here. I have not sat down to do so. This is mostly based on solar system barycenter, correct? is this the terminology? dL/dt = time derivative of angular momentum CM = Center of Mass = barycenter SMC = ? EAMT = mountain torque?

@EcdoPrep I have briefly talked about this relationship before. I mentioned one example to Zach back in December. The AAM changes for different reasons, torque wise. This is where dL/dt comes into play. Importance wise. Influences annual & decadal AAM tendencies. x.com/JimWindweather…

I'm working on the forecast now. The problem is that the only resource I know of that gives it day-by-day with error bars is the same URL that I am using already. Which means you have to pull the file today, store the predictions, wait, and then come back a month later to see how they did. Surprisingly, I have not been able to find a website that gives past predictions as of XXX date. I setup a python script that does exactly what is described above and stores the values in Postgres, but only started a week or so ago. Here is a dump of the data since that time: you can compare the real vs predicted positions as well as the Z values (equivalent to a sigma value based on error propagation). At a later date I want to add these predictions as thin traces on the polar motion plot.

You should start off these updates with your analysis/conclusion of the latest moves. Is it worrisome, somewhat dangerous, or immediately head for high ground warning will robinson level? And why? Is the trend within the typical % expected band for the path or bumping against upper/lower bounds? Can a forecast band be added? Thinking of stock price chart add-ons like Bollinger Bands, MACD, 50/200 day moving average, etc. Your soccer ball and penguin are good magnitude scale indicators.

Polar motion charts with data thru July 13 at 10-day, 3-month, and 4-year timescales. Foreground objects (soccer ball, Adelie penguin, pickup) are scaled to the path to show size. The earth (not to scale) background is for orientation, including LLSVPs and select meridians. Daily velocity is color coded per the legend at right. A primer video on how to read these charts is here: youtube.com/watch?v=8dGFB2…

@Kitsune_in_VA @SunWeatherMan @YouTube @EthicalSkeptic @zachariaspro @HashZappa @JasonWilde108 @junhoBTC @OMApproach @stephXskystory I still don't know how you find so much good literature Tami. Do you have you link to `Barbara Romanowicz is "puzzled" by the 1000 km mantle depth` - that sounds particularly interesting.

I've sort of had to gather my thoughts, and I apologize if I haven't been as active lately — I was visiting family in Austria for the first time in a long while these past few weeks. Honestly, the fact that most of us have busy adult lives/jobs/obligations (and do this on the side as time allows) may be part of the issue. Maybe we need to define a more organized working structure, if that's the goal. Sharing papers/notes in messages with peers and accepting review is a good start — thank you @EcdoPrep. My personal thoughts on the models and the constructive criticism are complicated. I appreciate both, and although I've found many papers in support, I also see the complex direction and advances happening in deep/solid earth sciences and geomagnetism in the journals lately. I've been spending more time understanding inner core oscillations/asymmetry/antipodal temperature differences and how these may interact/couple with mantle heterogeneity/ tangent cylinder. I know we take mainstream models with a grain of salt around here, but I've also started watching some online lectures from the past decade featuring the biggest physicists in the field presenting their papers. Here are a few informal notes from those (I'm far from done): Bruce Buffett (@ SETI Institute) thinks the biggest recent(ish) game-changer has been Pozzo et al. (2012), which showed the liquid outer core's thermal and electrical conductivities to be 2–3x higher than previously estimated, raising the CMB heat flux to 15–16 terawatts and pointing to thermal stratification at the core's top. Barbara Romanowicz is "puzzled" by the 1000 km mantle depth ponding/plume deflection scheme, saying it's not where they'd expect a discontinuity, since there shouldn't be any mineral phase changes present there. As one of the best in the field, she also recognizes both the lighter and denser LLSVP models, and stresses the inclusion of giant/mega ULVZs as partial-melt factories in plume models. Andy Biggin has some interesting models on paleomagnetic field behavior, explained by strong lateral heat-flux contrasts at the CMB tied to LLSVPs, and how thermal heterogeneity at the base of the mantle can break the axial symmetry of the time-averaged magnetic field. Working through Jon Mound's work next (arguably the most interesting of the bunch). Just as a side note — I'm very serious and appreciative about the work everyone here is doing, so serious that I finally got myself some reading glasses and signed up for physics classes at my local university, to strengthen the overall coherence of my contributions going forward. PS: I identify as a Nissan GT-R

@DDHReynolds @SunWeatherMan @junhoBTC This is a great catch- I have been to the coastal NW but not to that particular area. No Rainer to be seen.

@EcdoPrep @SunWeatherMan @junhoBTC 🤔Rainier may be worst case, but is invisible from Neah Bay & Cape Flattery (visited with my son—the Olympic Range blocks the view to the SW). Here are the ~5-6k ft (~2km) high mts to the N (Clayoquot direction) across the Strait of Juan de Fuca en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neah_Bay%…

In his livestream tonight, @SunWeatherMan asked for community feedback on several topics, LLSVP angular momentum and the depth of displacement amongst them. I will make a point to get some thoughts on paper shortly. On a slightly lighter note, no Ben - "Methuselah" is not my real name- it is an alias obviously. I have a day job that requires a touch of anonymity in this space. Why Methuselah? If you reconstruct the chronology in Genesis, Methuselah died the very year the flood came- we know this because Noah was 600 years old at the time of the cataclysm (Gen 7:11) and you can sum the years from creation in the biblical genealogies. The name is literally a concatenation of "Met-shelach" - "upon death, it [the flood] shall be sent". His father Enoch seems to have known this somehow, which is presumably why he walked with God after the birth of his son- solemn knowing what was coming to the world. All this makes it interesting that Methuselah sets the high water mark for longevity of all the biblical characters- 969 years. No one lived longer. It is almost as if God was intentionally extending Methuselah's life along as long as possible to delay the flood.

I need to correct a mistake in my correction to the earlier mistake. I had a touch of anxiety about the repeated 'tug' toward ~31 E over the past couple months of polar motion. Good news- the motion is almost wholly explained by some strong atmospheric and oceanic angular momentum contributions. I pulled data from the Geoforschungszentrum (Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences) and ran the numbers. The predicted dates and directions of excess polar motion match what we observed quite well. A quick video on this analysis may be in order. A bit of counterweight to the alarmism that can pervade these topics.

Good news- most of the actions are the same regardless of where the pole lands. The biggest difference is, which I suppose is not trivial, is that it is hard to watch for clues of a coming cataclysm if you don't quite know how it works. Some things that are probably useful in any scenario: Food. Water source. Seeds. Elevation. Community. Those will serve you well regardless of where the pole lands.

@SunWeatherMan @YouTube @EthicalSkeptic @Kitsune_in_VA @zachariaspro @HashZappa @JasonWilde108 @EcdoPrep @junhoBTC @OMApproach @stephXskystory I appreciate your drive for closure and action. Is there a common set of pole shift survival actions that we should take regardless of which alignment is more correct? My main goal is civilization's survival. For example Observer Ranch seems to be well-located for both!

The last couple months showed tiny X-direction accelerations spaced 10-11 days apart. I do not know the mechanism outside of very fast and loose speculation. The next one would be ~July 15-16. I am curious to see if the left turn holds, indicating the curve toward lower X is real, or if we have another little acceleration to higher X.

Semi halt in PM- X direction is an encouraging signal, but we still need to wait another several days IMO to see if this is a real curvature trend underway. It will not be overly long even if true before turning again, inside the path of late 2025 and early 2026.

The version I came across (linked below) just said mountains more generically - and Mt Rainer would have been the most promenent one in the area. "The ocean rose high enough to cut off the cape. Then it withdrew, reaching its low ebb four days later, leaving Neah Bay high and dry. Then it rose again to cover all but the mountain tops. The rising waters were very warm. People with canoes loaded their belongings and were borne far to the north. Many died when their canoes were caught in trees. The sea returned to normal after four more days, and the people found themselves far to the north, where their descendants still live." - Vitaliano, 1973, 171-172. curioustaxonomy.net/home/FloodMyth…

@EcdoPrep @SunWeatherMan @junhoBTC 😂But🤔Rainier? 14.4k ft? ‘It was four days reaching its lowest ebb…rose again…till it had submerged the Cape [Flattery], and…the whole country except the “tops of the mountains at *Clyoquot.*”’en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clayoquot… Tallest near Clayoquot? ~5-6k ft: peakvisor.com/adm/alberni-cl…

@hidewatchlaugh That is precisely what I was looking for. Thank you!

@EcdoPrep Is this what you need? Tracing the origins and recurrence of the South Atlantic Anomaly: A 2000-year absolute paleointensity record from central South America - Géosciences Rennes share.google/Mht4xoIZIXD7Yj…

Anybody have a link to this paper? Tracing the origins and recurrence of the South Atlantic Anomaly: A 2000-year absolute paleointensity record from central South America PNAS, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2536503123

@DDHReynolds @SunWeatherMan The flood myths of the Makah native Americans (Pacific NW) and fluid dynamics simulations from @junhoBTC both put the water near the top of Mt. Rainer (14,000 ft) as N America rotates into the Pacific. That's one terrified clownfish.

@EcdoPrep @SunWeatherMan This was hilarious. Is there a story about it? NRN, I just laughed and laughed when I first enlarged it to see what it was😂