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Colorado State University has released its first forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, calling for slightly below-average activity. The outlook predicts 13 named storms, including 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. That compares to the long-term average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. If the forecast verifies, it would be the least active season since 2015.
A strong El Niño is expected to develop, which typically increases wind shear across the Atlantic, making it harder for storms to organize and intensify. Ocean temperatures, however, are sending mixed signals. The western tropical Atlantic is warmer than normal, which can help support development, while the eastern tropical Atlantic is cooler than average, which tends to suppress activity. Together, those competing factors are expected to keep overall activity slightly below average.
Even with fewer storms predicted, the number of named storms does not determine local impacts. Quiet seasons can still produce major landfalls, while active seasons sometimes spare the United States. For example, only seven named storms formed in 1992, but Category 5 Hurricane Andrew caused catastrophic damage in South Florida. On the other hand, in 2010, 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes formed, but no hurricane made landfall in the U.S.
Whether 5 or 25 named storms form, it only takes one landfall to make it a bad year. That’s why it’s important to prepare every year. The hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.
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