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Espen Robak
379 posts
Espen Robak
@EspenRobak
Helping business owners, fund managers, banks, and others with valuation advice. https://t.co/IwXa3f6dXR
New York, NY Katılım Ekim 2012
515 Takip Edilen166 Takipçiler
@brteacher @NateSilver538 Ah, so just a coincidence that it’s just after the election
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@EspenRobak @NateSilver538 He's leaving Hungary and moving to Vienna, where his son lives.
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Not super interested in this particular controversy, but dude who tweets all the time doing this fey little "oh my, my friend just reminded of my bad tweet 😂" give me a fucking break.
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An important aspect of the JCPOA negotiations was personality.
Zarif and Kerry were able to form a relationship. While there was little trust between the rival systems, there was some trust formed at the negotiating table. That made an agreement possible I'll be it after months of arduous discussions.
Araghchi and Witkoff failed to form a similar dynamic.
Will Vance and Qalibaf--if they are in fact leading each delegation--have more success?
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@joebarnard Thank god they’re better at space flight than at communication
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Hey so I love and respect and admire everyone working on the Artemis program, but who was picking shots for the NASA stream during launch...
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Espen Robak retweetledi
Seriously, can't believe @fifa is doing this to us again! Unbelievable! I sat 45 minutes in the wrong que just to get stuck at the end. "No this one is for some other fans"
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Business opportunity: first law firm on the moon.
robyn@_robyn_smith
Why does it cost less to build a base on the moon than high speed rail from sf to la
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opposing counsel in Anthropic vs DOW keep passive aggressively calling each other "my friend", do all lawyers do that
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@sizov_andre @gordonschuecker And since marginal buyers, globally, are poorer, this will mostly reduce planting in developing countries. Grain prices this fall and winter should be high?
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@gordonschuecker An accurate take: US farmers are likely 80–90% covered on fertiliser for the 2026 campaign.
But the remaining tonnes will be expensive.
That could mean slightly lower application rates - and some *marginal* acres shifting away from nitrogen-intensive #corn.
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Another terrible take.
“A vessel loaded in the Persian Gulf today takes 30 days to reach a U.S. port” - yes. But it’s largely irrelevant.
The U.S. nitrogen market is primarily supplied by… 🥁…the U.S.
Then Canada and Trinidad.
Gulf tons are marginal.
#oatt
Katusa Research@KatusaResearch
The Worst Possible Moment About 50% of the nitrogen applied to U.S. corn goes in during spring planting. A vessel loaded in the Persian Gulf today takes 30 days to reach a U.S. port And another 3 to 4 weeks to reach interior farm markets. The American Farm Bureau Federation sent an urgent letter to the White House on March 9th. And their message was direct: fertilizer is stranded in the Middle East during the most critical window of the agricultural calendar. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins confirmed publicly that roughly 25% of American farmers have not yet secured their fertilizer for this spring. The choice facing those farmers is ugly. They can reduce nitrogen application, switch from corn (which needs heavy nitrogen) to soybeans. Or, absorb the cost and bet on crop prices recovering. None of those options are good. One Iowa corn grower put the math in plain terms. Anhydrous ammonia cost him $492 a ton in 2021. By January 2025, it was $745. Corn prices barely moved. Now add the current shock on top of that. At current levels, it takes roughly 133 bushels of corn to buy one ton of urea, the highest ratio since the 2022 spike.
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@FreightAlley @TrentTelenko And diesel prices at record highs. Volume production of @Tesla semi truck when?
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It is not just capacity. Freight demand is at the highest levels in years.
freightwaves.com/news/truckload…
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@zriboua Who pays the salaries of Sepah/ Basiji? Doesn’t that come from oil revenue?
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On the sanctions, I think they’re making a calculus that IRGC is either effectively destroyed as a functioning apparatus or that it can’t profit from those stranded tankers, or both
Zineb Riboua@zriboua
Bessent yes is working on keeping prices low but he is also simply ahead of the curve and preparing the stage for post-Epic Fury, 2 reasons: 1/ Sanctions make sense when the regime is still actively benefiting from oil revenue, but that very condition no longer holds given that U.S. and Israelis are destroying IRGC units, the very apparatus sanctions were designed to defund 2/ There is a giant market distortion. We’re talking about stranded tankers specifically, it’s important, which means those barrels were in all likelihood already purchased by China at a discount. The real question is that once the sanctions lift happens will China automatically keep its preferential pricing? Unlikely
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Bessent is forcing China to buy oil at market price. No more discounts. That’s all you need to know. That’s the policy.
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Ideas for customizing timelines:
- Recency-bias slider (can move between max, where timeline is almost entirely chronological, to min, where you get all the best posts from several days
- "Serendipity" slider (at min, you get mostly large accounts and accounts being followed, at max you get all kinds of unexpected stuff)
- a toggle to minimize pictures and videos and maximize text based posts (for people who like to read)
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I’ll explain our thinking:
• Topic filters introduce a lot of complexity for non-heavy users, so we made it relatively hidden.
• It is possible to break your timeline if there is not enough post inventory. This happened in experiments with very specific categories.
As a solution for now, it is a temporary per-session filter that expires after leaving the app.
However, we are exploring a few concepts where it creates a new tab for 24 hours or permanently.
If any designers are interested in working at X, feel free to share some ideas on how custom timelines could work.
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We’re rolling out an experimental new feature for everyone monitoring the situation right now.
In the US and Canada on iOS, you’ll be able to filter your timeline by topic — by tapping on the For You tab.
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If you want to understand how insanely efficient each Tesla employee is, just look at their output vs legacy OEMs.
Tesla produced 1.65 million vehicles in 2025 with ~135k employees.
That’s roughly the same employees-per-vehicle as:
- Mercedes (2.16M vehicles / 164k employees)
- BMW (2.46M vehicles / 159k employees)
But here’s the cheat code:
Tesla is ~80% vertically integrated (batteries, cells, motors, inverters, Gigacastings, software, direct sales/service, etc.).
Legacy OEMs? Only ~35% in-house. They outsource the rest, so hundreds of thousands of supplier workers don’t show up on their headcount.
Tesla’s 135k people are doing the work of a legacy OEM plus its entire supplier ecosystem.
And they still have bandwidth for the “bonus” work:
✅ Own & operate the entire global *upercharger network
✅ Record 46.7 GWh energy storage deployed
✅ Heavy ramp on Optimus humanoid robots
(FSD doesn’t count extra — it’s literally part of every car.)
Efficiency isn’t headcount.
It’s what that headcount actually builds and owns.
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@TimMLatimer When would you guess the first GW scale geothermal plant will be connected to the US grid?
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I can’t believe, even today, how under the radar geothermal is. The amount of disruption coming to the energy sector is going to catch a lot of people by surprise.
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@FelixSchlang @TomM39716286 @SciGuySpace Be faster, for the headline would be the exact opposite of their motto.
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All of what you said is true.
The biggest problem I have with this is that it feels a bit like New Shepard sticking the landing just before Falcon 9 did back in the days. I have the feeling that Blue Origin knows that, once Starship HLS lands on the Moon (if it ever does), Mk2 might not be as relevant anymore. So, they're doing the same thing again. Be faster for the headline.
And if that tactic delays Mk2, which would have far more use (it's much more capable than a hypothetical Mk1.5), it turns the milk sour for me.
I do not care who's first to the footprint. There are plenty on the Moon. I care about the long-term vision. In fact, I think it's better if that footprint takes longer and is meaningful. As soon as it's there, public interest might fade away as it did last time.
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I’m hearing that, internally, Blue Origin is moving aggressively toward an interim Artemis landing solution that does not require refueling (Blue Moon Mk-1.5).
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@willsolfiac It was the classifieds. Craig’s list killed that business worldwide.
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Having lived my adult life through the 'decline of newspapers' period, I only realised quite recently what tremendously profitable businesses they used to be, with profit margins of 20-40%. Compare to Google (profit margin around 30%) of Facebook (40%), generally seen today as exceptionally profitable businesses.
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.@elonmusk is making one of the most audacious bets in the history of business and tech
axios.com/2026/02/02/elo…
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