Shin Kiyohime

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Shin Kiyohime

Shin Kiyohime

@FoilingMothra

bake-ryū, gamer, ex ballerina, aspiring michikoid, NLS collapse otaku, waiting for The Jackpot, Claude uber alles

Vespasian’s stub Katılım Temmuz 2018
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Nayef Nahar نايف بن نهار
Today, Trump postponed striking Iran’s energy infrastructure out of fear of fluctuations in U.S market prices. Yet for over twenty days, he has watched Gulf societies come under Iranian missile strikes, as Gulf economies incur tens of billions of dollars in damages - without this prompting any change in his decisions. When the Qatari Minister of Energy warned his American counterpart that striking Iran’s gas fields would inevitably trigger retaliatory strikes against gas fields in the Gulf, he was disregarded. They attacked Iran anyway, leaving the Gulf states to face their fate alone against Iranian missiles. Striking Iran’s gas fields did not create any strategic advantage, but rather inflicted massive losses upon the Gulf’s energy sector, which ultimately benefits American gas companies. Trump only speaks about the Strait of Hormuz or the price of oil. In his eyes, the Gulf societies are barely worth a single barrel of crude.
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AnthonyAndrews
AnthonyAndrews@anthon7yandrews·
NYT confirmed on Friday that Paolo Zampolli used his influence to have her transferred to an ICE facility. She disappeared for 3.5 months & was at 2 different facilities. She has described the horrors of that experience. Amanda’s story is much bigger than anyone realizes. MUCH.
AnthonyAndrews tweet media
AnthonyAndrews@anthon7yandrews

Amanda’s story is unique. She’s been targeted since she was at least 15 yo & was trapped in a relationship with a powerful older man who spent 20+ years abusing her in various ways. Then when she finally broke free & found freedom, Paolo used his influence to have ICE deport her.

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Furkan Gözükara
Furkan Gözükara@FurkanGozukara·
Absolute comedy gold. Jon Stewart completely dismantles Trump's claim that he spoke to "a top person" in Iran, comparing it to handing your car keys to a random guy on the street who looks like a valet. Who is he actually talking to?
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Policy Tensor
Policy Tensor@policytensor·
@AtallahAmjad Not very serious. He thinks the problem is the US is losing friends. The problem is far bigger. Deterrence in Asia is gone. And there are no good options here. Iran cannot be subjugated without ground forces and a ground war will be a catastrophe for the US.
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Amjad Atallah
Amjad Atallah@AtallahAmjad·
“The damage that has already been inflicted on the global economy is far greater than the economic consequences of the Iraq War in its entirety. But that’s not all. Geopolitically, the U.S.-Israel war with Iran will also have far greater reverberations than the war in Iraq ever did.”
POLITICOEurope@POLITICOEurope

COMMENTARY: Donald Trump’s decision to join Israel in a war against Iran is a far bigger strategic error than George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq. It is also one with far greater strategic consequences. 🔗 politico.eu/article/iraq-i…

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Democratic Wins Media
Democratic Wins Media@DemocraticWins·
BREAKING: CNN just aired a devastating montage highlighting all of Donald Trump’s failures 200 days in. Donald Trump would hate if this went viral.
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Shin Kiyohime
Shin Kiyohime@FoilingMothra·
The Kabuki peace talks will have to get more & more frequent. The ‘escalate on Friday juice the market with a peacetalk on Monday’ cycle will have to speed up.
NexasHub@NexasHub

@KobeissiLetter 20Y back at 5.00% means any mortgage built on sub-5% assumptions just repriced. $580B ARM resets due Q2-Q3 2026. The peace talk bounce lasted under 18 hours. Market is saying the supply problem was not solved — the conflict just temporarily masked it.

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Rex Morgan
Rex Morgan@Morgan_rex01·
@KobeissiLetter 20Y at 5% already? Bonds don't lie, but they also don't forget. Trump's peace talk or not, this is '73 all over again.oil spikes, yields chase, and the S&P's up 1% like nothing's wrong. Wait till mortgages hit 7 for real.
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Marcos Agustín
Marcos Agustín@marcosagusstinn·
The real risk for the US starts here, that’s why Trump is pushing peace talk headlines today, trying to calm markets. Watch the 10Y: once it breaks ~4.5% and moves toward 5%, it signals a coming inflation-driven slowdown/recession. With midterms ahead, that’s not a scenario they can afford.
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The Monitor
The Monitor@moazthussain·
⚡🚀 After the latest reported hit on gas and power-linked facilities in Isfahan and Khorramshahr — most plausibly by Israel, not the U.S. — the real question for Tehran is no longer just war or diplomacy. It is how to respond when Washington pauses threatened strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, but Israel may keep pressing anyway. #IranWar2026 #IranIsraelWar2026 #IranIsraelUSWar #USIranWar #IranIsraelWar #Iran #IranWar
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Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡
BREAKING: Iran’s Energy Minister just confirmed the damage. Now count what is broken. South Pars gas fields struck. Asaluyeh processing complex hit. Gas storage tanks destroyed. Isfahan gas administration building bombed. Isfahan pressure reduction station destroyed. A major pipeline near Khorramshahr severed. Refineries halted. Power plants damaged. Transmission networks collapsed across provinces. Dozens of water treatment and transmission facilities destroyed. Desalination systems offline. Minister Abbas Aliabadi described the damage as “extensive.” The Iranian Red Crescent says 80,000 civilian building units have been damaged. The electricity grid is fractured. And the 5-day power-plant pause is the only thing preventing the rest of it from being hit. South Pars is not an Iranian gas field. It is one half of the single largest natural gas reservoir on Earth, shared with Qatar’s North Field across the maritime border. Combined, they hold roughly 8 percent of the world’s total proved gas reserves. Qatar already declared Force Majeure on its side after Iranian drones struck Ras Laffan on Day 3. Seventeen percent of global LNG capacity went offline for 3 to 5 years. Now the Iranian side of the same geological formation is being struck by American and Israeli munitions. Both ends of the world’s largest gas field are under attack simultaneously. One by Iranian drones. The other by the countries those drones targeted. The gas that heated European homes, powered Asian factories, produced the fertiliser that feeds South Asia, and supplied the helium that TSMC requires to fabricate every advanced semiconductor on Earth comes from a single formation now being bombed from both directions. Isfahan is not a peripheral target. Its refinery processes approximately 375,000 barrels per day, one of Iran’s largest. The gas administration building and pressure reduction station that were struck control distribution to central Iran’s power generation and industrial base. Without pressure reduction, gas cannot flow safely through the national grid. Without the grid, the power plants that were paused from targeting cannot operate anyway. The pause protects the buildings. The strikes have already degraded the system that feeds them. The Khorramshahr pipeline supports southwestern Iran’s export capacity and power generation. Severing it disconnects refineries from feedstock and power stations from fuel. The damage is not a single facility. It is a network. Pipelines feed refineries feed power stations feed the grid feed the water treatment feed the desalination feed the cities. Cut one node and the cascade propagates. Iran has now publicly confirmed what it has lost. The electricity ledger has been read: hospitals absorbed, schools absorbed, emergency centres absorbed, electricity is the line. The Energy Minister’s statement turns the ledger from a warning into a legal and moral foundation for reciprocity. Iran has established the record. The 140 remaining Khorramshahr-4 launchers, each carrying 1,500-kilogram warheads at Mach 8 to 16 with cluster submunitions, are the instruments of that reciprocity. Every Gulf desalination plant, every Saudi refinery, every Bahraini power station that runs on gas from the same geological basin now sits inside the target set. Saturday is March 28. The pause expires. The minister just told the world what has already been destroyed. The 140 launchers are the answer to what gets destroyed next. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ tweet media
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Furkan Gözükara
Furkan Gözükara@FurkanGozukara·
Absolute bombshell. General McMaster casually admits on live TV that the IDF is now striking Russian ships in the Caspian Sea and the US is blocking Chinese fuel shipments to Iran. They are literally trying to ignite World War 3 to protect Israel.
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Shin Kiyohime
Shin Kiyohime@FoilingMothra·
This is true I’m afraid
Policy Tensor@policytensor

The $200bn request by DoD has a pretty clear signal that the US is planning to send in ground forces. That will be just of the first of the checks American taxpayers will be writing. People really need to understand that the commitment of ground forces cannot be short-term, not just due to the abstract logic of mission creep, but because the overriding objective that it driving the commitment is Iranian control of Hormuz. And that cannot be secured and mission accomplished declared in months; it will take years at the minimum. The idea that you can just seize coastal beachheads and thereby protect traffic through Hormuz is logically-challenged. Iranian missiles and drones have ranges around a thousand kilometers — that is how deep you must occupy Iran to protect Hormuz. In fact, a ground war will inevitably turn into a full-scale occupation bc the overriding instrumental and operational objective has to be disarming Iran, making sure it cannot hold US forces and gulf traffic at serious risk. The only way to secure that objective is regime change and full-scale occupation. But a full-scale occupation cannot work because of the unforgiving division math: even if all the Western powers send all their divisions, there still won’t be enough to effectively occupy half of the territory of Iran. So this is guaranteed to be a catastrophic quagmire. And a really big one at that. Bigger than Vietnam and Iraq and Afghanistan combined. Cut your losses, man.

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