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The Fringe Finance Report
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The Fringe Finance Report
@FringeFin
Ex-Wall Street pro (CFA, CMA, CTP). Not financial, investment, legal, medical, or tax advice. 👇 Join 2,000+ subscribers on Substack. Substack Bestseller.
United States Katılım Ocak 2025
113 Takip Edilen321 Takipçiler
@FurkanGozukara As an investor I have concluded - reluctantly - that our leaders are either unwise or intentionally destructive.
It’s not something I want to believe, but it’s hard to ignore after what I’ve seen in 2020 (COVID), 2022 (Ukraine), and now in 2026 (Iran).
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There is no exit strategy. Mearsheimer explains that the US is trapped in a humiliating defeat. Even if Washington tries to walk away, Iran and Israel will keep fighting, and Iran holds all the cards to inflict massive damage. Total strategic failure.
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@ali_naka It’s funny to watch how a Professor of English Literature (Marandi) runs rings around the “interviewers” — talking point after talking point. Boring.
A random 10-year-old would make a better interviewer.
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You're responsible for a Holocaust." Professor Marandi brutally confronts the Western media's hypocrisy, exposing how they helped Israel commit genocide in Gaza and are now projecting their crimes onto Iran to deflect attention. Absolute masterclass! He is one of the best Analysts at the moment
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@OptionsGuyFL Exactly.
“Readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts” — That is my favorite; pure bureaucratese that means nothing.
I once expressed my own readiness to contribute to my wife’s efforts to cook dinner—by eating.
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@TFL1728 Ahh! The strongly worded letter trick. I’m sure this will work. Fanatical religious zealots always respond to strongly worded letters.
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@MrRunon @Silver__Santa I have concluded - reluctantly - that our leaders are either unwise or intentionally destructive. It’s not something I want to believe, but it’s hard to ignore after what I’ve seen in 2020 (COVID), 2022 (Ukraine), and now in 2026 (Iran).
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@Silver__Santa @FringeFin Israel is forcing the destruction of the world though. They want it. How can we even stop it? Trump has gone mad, and he's in too deep
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When you want to sell it all, then start buying. 10,000 investors sold already before you, there are no sellers left, so it's close to a bottom. When you want to go all in, then start selling. 10,000 investors bought already before you, there are no buyers left, so it's close to a top. It's the only way to succeed. #SANTA
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The Fringe Finance Report retweetledi
The Fringe Finance Report retweetledi
Best case, the Iran "adventure" ends soon and the damage to oil and gas production is limited.
Worst case, the entire region — Iran, UAE, Qatar, and others — could go up in flames. That is now a non-zero probability, up from 0% just a few weeks ago.
Not investment advice.
-- GEROMAN -- time will tell - 👀 --@GeromanAT
February 2026: "Ukraine is confidently winning. Time is on our side, we'll crush Russia," - Kallas March 19, 2026: "We urgently need to find a solution that would not mean Ukraine's complete surrender to Moscow," - Kallas And what happened? 🤔
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The Fringe Finance Report retweetledi
Gold is selling off During a war.
With oil at $100+
Confusing? Here's why
🔴 Fed stays hawkish energy inflation = no cuts
🔴 Real yields rising = headwind for non-yielding gold
🔴 Dollar strengthening = gold under pressure
🔴 Crowded longs unwinding = technical flush below 50-day MA
Every time equities dropped since the war began, investors sold gold to raise liquidity.
The ultimate hedge. Being sold to cover losses elsewhere.
This isn't a collapse in gold's long-term thesis.
It's a crowded trade getting washed out.
War and $100 oil are bullish for gold.
But right now the tape doesn't care about theory.
It cares about margin calls. 📉
The long-term store of value case is intact.
The short-term chart is ugly.
Know the difference. ♟️
#gold
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The Fringe Finance Report retweetledi
Iran's attack on Qatar just knocked out 17% of its LNG export capacity. Repairs? 3-5 years, per QatarEnergy's CEO (Reuters).
This is what energy supply disruption actually looks like and history shows what comes next:
Countries fall back on the energy resources they actually possess. China offers a striking example of how such constraints reshape industrial systems.
China imports most of the oil it consumes but can cover its coal demand domestically. To safeguard itself against supply shocks, the country has built a massive industrial base around coal-to-liquids (CTL) and coal-to-chemicals (CTC). The key technology is the Fischer–Tropsch process, originally developed in Germany during World War II to turn coal into synthetic fuels.
According to the IEA, around 85% of China’s ammonia and methanol production now uses coal as feedstock. In effect, coal has replaced gas as the primary input for large parts of China’s chemical industry. China’s largest CTL facility—the Shenhua Ningxia plant, commissioned in 2016—reportedly converts more than 20 million tonnes of coal into roughly 4 million tonnes of oil products annually, equivalent to about 80,000 barrels per day.
China’s CTL output still represents only a tiny fraction of its total oil consumption but the numbers are rising: China’s CTL capacity increased 24% to roughly 11 million tonnes in 2023 compared with 2019 as Beijing pushes for greater energy security. Notably, China’s coal-fired power generation fell by 1.6% in 2025. Much of that coal is now being absorbed by CTL and CTC industries, which carry an even higher CO₂ footprint.
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I upped S&P puts, kept XOM calls (portfolio hedge), rolled gold/silver miners calls to Jan 2028, and boosted cash. Iran's "adventure" echoes 2022 Ukraine—"short war" pitch then, too. If I were dumb enough to kick a hornets' nest, the hornets would stop when they want, not when I want. Iran has the same attitude. I hope to be wrong and it ends tomorrow, but I am not betting on it. Not investment advice.
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More pain coming.
The bottom is still a long way off in the S&P 500.
Will gold and silver continue to follow it?
UK Report@UK_REPT
BREAKING — 🇾🇪🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 THE HOUTHIS ARE OFFICIALLY PARTICIPATING IN THE WAR. - We will target American ships and warships in the Red Sea.
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@zerohedge Vote for the "war president" or the "peace president"—you always get the war president. Disappointing.
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US LNG Export Terminals "Running Near Maximum" As MidEast Energy Infra Descends Into Chaos zerohedge.com/energy/worlds-…
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The Fringe Finance Report retweetledi
This was less than 1 year ago when people were still excited about the idea of $60 Silver. Now they mourn it!
Bald Guy Money@baldguymoney
I’ve been at this long enough to recognize bullish price action. Silver will break above $35 this year - head to $40 - and reach $60 in 2026. Save this post!
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The Fringe Finance Report retweetledi
🚨 Silver Futures just surged back above $70.
Premium subscribers have had the roadmap in hand, and we warned of this at $90.
Beat the market! 📈 Join our Substack. wallstreetgold.substack.com
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The Fringe Finance Report retweetledi
Powell claims we don’t have stagflation because today is nothing like the 1970s. In a way, he is correct. Today’s situation is nothing like the 1970s. It’s much worse, and it’s not just because CPI and unemployment numbers are rigged.
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The Fringe Finance Report retweetledi
@DA_Stockman So what is Europe going to do?
Qatar gas seems offline.
It cut itself off from Russia.
If push comes to shove, we in the US will keep our gas.
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The Fringe Finance Report retweetledi
The amount of panic in my inbox over this #Gold sell-off is a good contrarian indicator.
If you are losing sleep over a short-term dip, you aren't looking at the big picture. Gold is still up double-digits in almost every major currency this year.
Don't let recency bias shake you out of a generational bull run. The data speaks for itself. 👇
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@ReadeAlexandra 2024 Trump: No.
2026 Trump: Definitely possible.
He changed or was very good at hiding his true intentions.
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Is the current POTUS administration planning to expand the current war in the Middle East into a war with Russia?
Yes, there is chatter….
Who is saying and why ? To sabotage peace talks or is it a legitimate warning that more war is on the table by U.S. neocons?
Thoughts?
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@FurkanGozukara Dan Bongino used to talk big about all the things he’d do before joining the FBI—but ended up doing 0% of it.
That tells me everything I need to know about him. Don't care what he says anymore.
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Dan Bongino and Sean Hannity completely destroy the "Trump was tricked by his advisors" excuse. They confirm Trump is 100% in control and wanted this war, calling critics cowards for blaming the cabinet just to protect their grift. He is walking the dog!
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