Geist

@TrackPhantom @infochartingho1 You have hit upon something very important. Normal bettors cannot cancel like CAWs, they are capped at a total $ of cancelled bets in a day. Even if they weren’t, they don’t have the execution speed. Removing this one thing could rebalance the odds.

Here’s my take on the CAW phenomenon. I don’t have inside information—this is based solely on what I’ve observed and read. First, I don’t believe past posting is driving this. It may occur in isolated cases, but even that seems unlikely. Some suggest bets are placed after the break to target horses that show early speed. But if someone truly had that advantage, would they apply it to thoroughbreds—where the edge is marginal—or to quarter horses, where a 10-second advantage could eliminate almost all uncertainty? If this were simply past posting, it would at least be fixable. Unfortunately, the level of sophistication here suggests it doesn’t require betting after the bell. Second, I think performance-enhancing drugs are the focal point. When PED use became more prevalent—roughly from 1998 to 2003—results became significantly more predictable and the betting much more accurate. Third, there’s no doubt CAWs have the most advanced technical tools for handicapping. That said, I find it hard to believe their success is driven solely by an ability to out-analyze publicly available data—race results, replays, and trend information—that everyone else has access to. It seems more likely they have some form of informational pipeline from the backside. When their data-driven handicapping aligns with that proprietary insight, they bet aggressively. What concerns me most is the apparent manipulation of the tote board. This is where it feels like the industry has turned its back on everyday players. Tracks could offer CAWs larger rebates, faster data feeds, and the ability to batch large wagers in the final seconds—and that would be one thing. But this obvious controlling and manipulating of the odds up to the last minute is the big middle finger to the rank and file bettors. In many races where CAWs ultimately land heavily on a horse, that horse appears completely dead on the board for most of the betting cycle—sometimes 20+ minutes—only to become overbet at the very end. This pattern happens too consistently to ignore. It raises the question of whether early wagers are being canceled or simply used as positioning before late money corrects the odds. Either way, the outcome is the same: the public is misled. If tracks are allowing this behavior, it suggests a level of complicity. And that’s the bigger issue. At its core, this is a gambling game. When one group holds such a clear and persistent advantage, it inevitably discourages participation. Over time, that erodes the player base. We are already be seeing the effects of that now.

@kvallier @christopherrufo This is misguided. The time for your project was 20 years ago. The people that you are fighting have already won and will placate you while continuing on their way. Go make your presentations at Oberlein and then let us know how it works out.

I want to clearly state where I think @christopherrufo has been harmful for American civic life. He has certainly done some good. My concern is that his tactics are a kind of civic poison. They salt the social earth, making trust hard to rebuild and polarization hard to reduce. I'm part of the Ohio civics project. I left an ordinary academic job to throw myself into the work of academic reform, building institutions that serve as a counterweight to left-wing overreach. The academy is in deep need of reform. I am not a beautiful loser asking conservatives to disarm. But this work requires being charitable to people we disagree with, and Rufo's rhetoric is not uniformly welcome among those of us doing it. Consider his own words: "We will eventually turn [critical race theory] toxic, as we put all of the 'various cultural insanities' under that brand category. The goal is to have the public read something 'crazy' in the newspaper and immediately think 'critical race theory.'" This isn't arguing that a view is false. It isn't trying to remove it from a curriculum. It's category construction. It has always read to me as engineered so the public can't distinguish thoughtful people who draw on CRT from crazy ones. That's not necessary to win the argument, and it corrodes the civic ground any future reform has to be built upon. I'm not tone-policing. I'm saying what Rufo gives with one hand, he takes with the other. Many of us are doing the hard daily work of academic reform, and we do not uniformly welcome his efforts, because his tactics are too bare-knuckled and, frankly, unkind. So to be clear: the academy needs reform. I am giving my career to that project. But I will not thank Rufo for anything as long as his rhetoric salts the earth for rebuilding trust with the left.

@ThomasDHowes @McGillPatterson And how is your approach working? Conservatives have been mostly purged from academia. Employers are valuing the product that is produced less and less. His arguments are mostly correct and your response is “but he sends mean tweets.”

I get Rufo going after people like @McGillPatterson and me, because we're provocative and invite it, but Rufo has now been nasty to Elizabeth Corey, Rachel Lu, and Kevin Vallier???? They're nice people.

@joshsec15 @AdamKoffler Exactly. You can still get in here for $300k-$350k. I had my 3rd house in this area, so you are 100% right.

@GeistPaddle @AdamKoffler Exactly. This isn’t a stater home. If you’re buying a 700K as your starter home, try again. What you just described is a 2nd or 3rd home you bought in you life.

Here’s Dave Ramsey’s advice on buying a house in the year 2026: - Have 20% for a down payment to avoid private mortgage insurance (PMI) - Do a 15-year fixed rate loan - Make sure your monthly payment isn’t more than 1/4th of your take home pay Let’s put that math to the test 👇🏼

@AdamKoffler @joshsec15 In Indianapolis, $700k buys a house in one of the most desirable lake communities that is 5/4 or 4/4, 3 car garage. Easily 4,500 sqft. 20 minutes to downtown, 40 minutes to airport. 18th largest city in the country. Plenty of jobs.

@joshsec15 It’s also all relative, some areas you can’t find anything LESS than $700K, other areas $700K is a nice 3,000 sq ft home So yes, I’m speaking in very loose general terms. Won’t apply to everyone, but the point still stands

@KennyMcPeek It’s impressive you still had optimism.

I’m losing my optimism about Horseracing. State vet’s situation in Kentucky is ridiculous. The sport gives Media rights to 3rd party that won’t open up viewing. HISA failing to align rules or even licensing. Department of Labor terrorizing Trainers. Jockeys can’t use whips. I’ve devoted my entire life to the sport and I’ve watched it lose viewership annually. I’ve Invested in helping grow the sport while enduring pushback from entities more worried about their market share than growing an industry. I’ll retire June 30,2034 sell all my equipment and properties. Likely to never look back. Unless @RepoleStable can shake the tree for change, I’m doubtful. I’ll see you at the races or Not.

I did not make my point well. If the pie grows by 50%, giving up 1% to make that happen grows your bottom line. If what you say is true (& you likely know), then it doesn’t matter. The top of the food chain will keep squeezing until it is done because the options aren’t there to grow

Sadly, that just isn't how capitalism works. But just for argument sake a few data points. Most tracks lose money. Only a few really do anything close to "well". Almost every trainer except the super top level are one month away from poverty/bankruptcy. There is just not enough money to squeeze even if people wanted to.

I am a gambler. I bet a lot on horses. My personal yearly handle historically has been well into the 6 figures. I am also a fairly sizeable owner/breeder. I am also on the board of a racetrack. So there are infinite angles for me to react. The vast majority of the people who I know who are new to the game and drawn to the sport are super small bettors or actually not betting at all. The betting is not even remotely interesting for at least a third of the people who I know who are owners or interested in the sport. Gambling is important to the sport. It will always be an important part of the sport. But content about the game doesn't have to be the same content, over and over again. There are many ways to present and entertain an audience. And there are other ways to monetize the sport. Just like there are other ways to monetize other sports and entertainment events.

@TKKuegler @twoeight_racing It’s one of the more anti business logic things I have ever seen. They would rather have 100% of 0.

@TKKuegler @twoeight_racing Agreed. But the implicit bargain was at least the appearance of fairness. That now doesn’t exist with the tracks, governing bodies, or a good portion of the trainers. No one is willing to shrink their take by even 1% to make the pie larger. So it will eventually die.

@twoeight_racing @TKKuegler The numbers don’t work to make this possible for anyone that doesn’t have a breeding angle, the ability to syndicate or who can’t reduce their costs in some way. Unless you can find more people willing to consistently lose money, I’d love to hear a way to bring in more owners.

@TKKuegler Agreed, the sport needs more new owners

@gbrl_dick Anyone who doesn’t understand this absolutely true statement doesn’t know how to tip.

easiest way to explain this is that american drinks are kind of non-linear because every order you pay a little serf tax to their service class, and after about three drinks the bartender recognises you as a more reliable ally than the bar owner and mixes drinks at 2-3x strength

@kingcwoods @GhostofSwiftH B/c by and large rich people get that way by not wasting money. No part of horse racing is efficient, modern, predictable, thoughtful, uncorrupted. Chasing the next big win becomes less fun the more times you get screwed, so you go find something else to do with your fun money.

@GhostofSwiftH I don’t get why more rich people don’t buy horses. What’s the point of being super rich??

I like Repole. He sold color water flavoring and got rich. Thats a hustle. Then did it again with Body Armour lol . Hes worth billions and he cant change the game or sport for the better or even have a seat. Horse Racing is dying. Nothing will change it . Not Repole/ JC

@seanheilweil @realEstateTrent lol.

@realEstateTrent You should definitely post about your weekend home. Always. Don't forget to post about panic calling the nanny the night before school is cancelled for a snow day. It's always a good look. Do it. I don't make the rules. You're welcome.

I don’t know who needs to hear this but here goes: Never. It’s never a good look to post photos of you flying on a private jet. It’s a blind spot, I promise. Stop it. You’re welcome.

@bullpenhen @AlecMacGillis Kids from Florida go there. Every FBO east of the Mississippi has a brochure for them, right next to the McKinsey magazine and the Robb Report.

@AlecMacGillis There is no way there are enough rich people in NC to send their kids here…

High Point University in NC, which beat Wisconsin in basketball today, conducts campus tours on golf carts, offers wealthy students private housing for $40,000 per year and built an "airplane-cabin interior" so that students could rehearse sitting next to an executive on a plane.

@ChelsyFreedom @AmericaPapaBear @RealAlyLegge Yes. Siesta Key, FL.

@AmericaPapaBear @RealAlyLegge is this true? lol 😂

When you think you have seen it all. Florida says hold my beer.

@RyanDLeaf I can’t believe this app is free.

I’ll be transparent. I am one of the HOF voters who didn’t vote for Coach Belichick. It’s come time that if you are able to penetrate the walls of the voting ilk, yours or anyone’s resentments can be fueled with revenge. Tom ain’t getting in either…lose to Foles, no way, no how

@PlumbNick Not enough people understand how true this is. You also didn’t mention that companies will accept a significant downgrade in quality, experience, and work output to “save” money in the short term.

Well this isn’t exactly how I hoped my day would start. After 8 years, I just got laid off - as did 16k of my peers. But before anyone rushes in with explanations that make them feel better, let me be clear about what this wasn’t. It wasn’t performance and it wasn’t AI. It wasn’t location, versatility or impact. I was an L7, I led global AI enablement. I built systems executives depended on, moved wherever the company needed me and fixed problems that had been sitting untouched because no one else could untangle them. And I was still cut. Here’s the part we’re all supposed to politely ignore: in the U.S. right now, experience isn’t an asset, it’s a liability. And if you’re expensive because you’re good at what you do, the system eventually “optimizes” you out. This doesn’t happen in isolation. It’s enabled by a global labor market with almost no guardrails. Companies aren’t just competing on products anymore, they’re arbitraging labor across borders, wages, benefits and worker protections. When replacement is cheaper than retention, the decision gets framed as strategy instead of consequence. AI becomes the excuse, not the cause. It’s the clean narrative that hides what’s actually happening: experienced workers being swapped out through global labor substitution while leadership talks about “efficiency” and “the future of work.” That cycle keeps repeating because nothing in our policy stack meaningfully pushes back. Trade, labor and technology policy all pretend they’re separate, and workers pay the price for that fiction. I saw this coming and that’s why I’m running for Congress. I understand how this system works because I’ve lived inside it and I know it won’t fix itself. This is a rules problem and the rules are written by people who don’t bear the cost. If this resonates, don’t just nod along and move on. Support my candidacy, back someone who actually understands how global labor, AI and corporate incentives intersect and believe me when I say I am motivated to address this directly. By pretending this is inevitable, we’re accepting the outcome. #amazonlayoffs

@mwmoedinger Not when you are dumb and lose your receipt. It’s a cool concept, I agree.

@GeistPaddle Luckily they have a 2 year warranty!

Got my hands on one of these today...they're only available in the store, on days when it's snowing in Switzerland 😆 Anyway...esoteric space race references and a fun riff on the Speedmaster? I'm in! Serious watch heads will scoff, but I think it's fun.

I have some follow up questions @KeenelandJim. What are the advantages that they have that you are seeking to limit. Please list them here as your retail players would like to know. Also, why can’t you limit their access to the exacta pool as well? Lastly, do any of the tracks or governing horse racing bodies have a financial interest in these groups?