Goderguy

1.2K posts

Goderguy

Goderguy

@Goderguy

making drugs & havin fun. prev L/S analyst

Katılım Nisan 2017
571 Takip Edilen1.3K Takipçiler
@jason
@jason@Jason·
We started an AI founder twitter group... reply with "I'm in" if you're a founder and want to be added
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Pablo Roman
Pablo Roman@liteupthedark1·
@midwit_capital $psnl is superior in every way to $NTRA as an end user. Market will catch up. 500m vs 30b cap.
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Goderguy@Goderguy·
@Biohazard3737 empirically it’s rapidly accelerating new drug idea gen. as the wet lab workflows are commoditizing & lead op moving to computation.
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Goderguy@Goderguy·
@TKSaville @broheim777 Thanks for all this incredible detail. Who do you view as the number two player in this base? Seems outside of Comstock there are multiple sub-scaled players - but tough to tease out who else has a “right to win”
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tracy saville
Hi. What are you basing that data on and what are your assumptions on the 20k/BE? The waste flow is more than sufficient (actual EOL) and no one else has the storage or throughput capacity or the R2V3 guarantee of eliminating toxic contamination from offtake. I’ve seen the accurate physical installed panels-to-EOL data starting from 2008 forward and 100,000 t capacity is 3.3m panels per year. This is only 10% of the waste stream. 3 facilities at this size would be 30% of the waste stream based on installed panels dumping into EOL on a conservative assumption that others could uptake the rest - no one else is remotely operating or on pace to operate in the west coast at that capacity. Others will continue to get some of it but there isn’t anyone else running at the pace, stage of scale, or contamination free certification that can compete for a pole position on volume. As long as they stick to schedule (like any good industrial ops) and stay golden on service and price value, they’ll keep leading the pack.
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tracy saville
For you $lode peeps: there is a difference between 5000 tons and 100,000 tons throughput but not what you think. The tech is not the issue or constraint. Industrial scale on this is relatively vanilla. I know this from experience. What DOES matter is volume (waste steam dominance), labor capacity, and uptime relative to external variables that are unknown unknowns and therefore risks. Over 30 years I’ve never met a more experienced and capable leader (Fortunato) or team that has the constraints in hand.
AlmostMongolian@AlmostMongolian

$LODE second permit received. Now fully permitted. PR also states they are on schedule for commissioning in Q1. Next big derisking will be proving that the tech works as they say it does when scaled up.

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Goderguy@Goderguy·
biggest misconception I see from $LODE: the company is booking a net income accounting loss given their majority ownership in Bioleum. But - this is not a cash drag on $LODE equity given it's independently financed. Worst case - PF equity ownership to $LODE shareholders in Bioleum goes down if they do a raise. The accounting loss is not the right representation for the biz's cash flows.
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Better Nest
Better Nest@NestBetter·
Best part of owning $LODE is all the ways to win. Everyone is focused on the Solar Panel recycling, as they should be but we have a tonne of potential upside suprises: -> Anthing Bioleum -> Selling Land -> Selling / JV Silver properties -> Out license Solar recycling tech
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Michael - Protein Thx and Biologics
The future of drug discovery is not who has a bigger cluster or who has a model they know how to use. It will be (already is); target selection, MOA, imcumbants, First in Class designation, neglected diseases -> mainstream indications, alternative clinical pathways (China or Australia? | Permissive healthy volunteers? | Another angle?) Out of all of these important aspects - the most important one is picking the right target, site of interaction, and MOA. Sure - being first is dope. And a speedy (clinical) trial is a right. But the key is and always will be GOOD SCIENCE. The biggest drug discovery companies are research power houses. Eli, REGN, Pfizer, GSK, Novo, etc. Unfortunately (or not?) the corporate bloat tends to slow down actual material progress. These companies are all fighting over the next TROP2 antibody or CDx/PD msmAb. The real innovation comes from new targets, new uses of existing drugs, novel interactions (or lack of interactions). The future of drug discovery is still going to be in the lab in SOME capacity. These tools will undoubtedly speed up research and development times but we don't need MORE drugs - we need novel and intelligently designed drugs. AI is a part of this story. Human intuition and innovation is the glue that holds it together.
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Goderguy
Goderguy@Goderguy·
@DdelAlamo More for VHH’s vs mini proteins - but combining somewhat effective starting points with OrthoRep or alternative YSD platforms seems like a higher confidence approach? Curious if you’d disagree.
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Goderguy@Goderguy·
@0xsmac @notncssry do you think ridges or the prop network are steps in the right direction? Or not feasible
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smac
smac@0xsmac·
@notncssry i mean, ya i am with you lol
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u u ɔ s s ɹ ʎ
u u ɔ s s ɹ ʎ@notncssry·
Not a single fund with billions of AUM would ever touch this thing bro i can 100% assure you that. Bittensor subnets is pumpdotfun but for ai copycats created out of mumbai slums
Michael D. White@here4impact

preface: 99%+ of my net worth is tied up in the #bittensor ecosystem. I admire and actively support multiple subnet teams, and I am 100% allocated to subnets within the $TAO ecosystem (0% to root). I run a fund dedicated to subnet investment, so I quite obviously believe in the amazing potential the protocol possesses. with that out of the way: I met with the principals of a large ($5B+) multi-family office on Thursday. I passionately pitched them the Bittensor ecosystem. multiple subnets. they loved it. “send me more info. we move quickly.” they are heavily invested in the tech start-up space. what better place to deploy capital than subnets? what space could be more a) interesting from an intellectual perspective and b) attractive from a risk/return standpoint? I am close to rescinding that recommendation. since that meeting (in just the past 48 hours), the $dTAO mechanism is changing *yet again.* apparently taoflows (and associated chain buys) are benefiting the wrong subnets. let’s just say it: nobody wants sn8 to win. I witnessed the founder of the protocol jeet the entirety of his sn8 holdings yesterday, probably in an effort to stop chain buys. cool. your choice. but that didn’t work. so let’s change the protocol, and give validators the power to choose which subnets get chain buys (arguably undermining the purpose of dynamic TAO). the college football playoffs started this weekend, so here’s a metaphor. you’re a football coach (subnet owner). you recruit your team. you expend the right resources in the right places. you come up with the perfect plays based on the (publicly agreed upon and accepted) rules of the game. everything works. your star QB has an amazing drive downfield and you end up in the red zone. you have a play just for this scenario. the O line executes. your WR gets in the perfect spot. the QB connects. TOUCHDOWN!! not so fast. joke’s on you mf’er. the goalposts moved. some football OG’s have been monitoring the situation. the end zone isn’t there anymore. other end of the field papi. would you ever play the game again? of course not. how do you build an organization if the rules are fluid? how do you recruit investment if things constantly shift and change? uncertainty is the death knell for an investment class. I say this reluctantly because somebody has to: if #bittensor wants to be ready for institutional capital, it needs to make a decision. is it a decentralized protocol or not? let us know please. there are certainly *subnets* that are crushing it and ready for institutional capital. they have game plans and they are executing. but they are succeeding in spite of, not because of, the constant changes to the dTAO protocol. if Bittensor is going to be truly decentralized, it needs to decide now. otherwise we are just another extraction L1. #bittensor $TAO $dTAO

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Goderguy@Goderguy·
@Respekchemistry nah I agree with you - KCC2 is too risky for now. their other asset - OV329 - with data Q126 is what I was referring to
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Goderguy@Goderguy·
what do you think the solution here is? if reserves are removed as regulatory leverage for SLR - banks can incentivize deposits+reserves and thus their ability to provision liquidity without tightening markets. Not sure what else we have. Seems Fed governors are okay with waiting until something breaks before moving.
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Michael - Protein Thx and Biologics
Here we are looking at ~13k Boltzgen binders I have the axis set to RMSD vs iPTM in this case with the color gradient pegged to PAE. This plot is telling us how tightly is this protein folded vs how good the model things the binding quality is. Overwhelmingly the samples cluster in an interesting pattern. Those who have better pae (lower) are purple and higher on the iPTM plot. While I understand these are only calculated values from a model - these plots are so beautiful and interesting to review. Let me know what you think.
Michael - Protein Thx and Biologics tweet media
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Goderguy@Goderguy·
@incredutility @dreidco I do agree with this statement between the two. But I do think you need to adjust to the fact that Nabla increased epitope diversity range per receptor, which biases their de novo candidates to positive hits, especially given they're running serial AffMat using YSD.
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Charlie Petty
Charlie Petty@incredutility·
Very informative thread for outsiders / busy people following the CHAI / Nabla 'one shot drug-like antibody' announcements! TLDR: Nabla appears to have meaningfully better monovalent binding relative to CHAI.
Dylan Reid@dreidco

x.com/owl_posting/st… Good catch from @Owl_Posting missed in the initial Chai/JAM comparisons — looks like JAM-2’s affinities are consistently 1-2 OOM better than Chai-2s, which is a big gap and key to whether de novo antibodies are good enough to go directly into animals 🧵…

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Goderguy@Goderguy·
@Biohazard3737 All of these companies will need to start running therapeutics off their b/s. Ironically the supply/demand for talent there is more scarce than AI researchers in biotech.
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Deva Hazarika
Deva Hazarika@devahaz·
Nobody could have called House of Prime Rib and Balboa Cafe ending up as two of the most popular young SF tech nerd destinations of the latest boom
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Gavin Baker
Gavin Baker@GavinSBaker·
Federal budget deficit is improving. Important and underreported.
Gavin Baker tweet media
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Goderguy@Goderguy·
@astridwilde1 Prob pharma more than A&G on normalization… but think we’re past the worst part on A&G and clin Dx should keep scaling
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Goderguy@Goderguy·
@astridwilde1 As long as they don't talk down 26 numbers, should be fine here. Increased R&D spend from pharma + A&G post normalizing relationships with Trump should be a tailwind - I'm optimistic this talk down won’t happens. that's the big risk ST here I think
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Astrid Wilde 🌞
Astrid Wilde 🌞@astridwilde1·
people are finally starting to put the pieces together here
SCT@lvgtoft

$TWST $NTRA @standuquesne --- super important commentary that is not priced in. If $TWST competitors are having commercial supply issues to the point where companies like $NTRA are considering very expensive revalidation using $TWST that is a major signal. Wouldn't be surprised if one of the best investors in the world caught this. The question is will you before it is announced?

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