
MajorTom
21.3K posts

MajorTom
@HFMajorTom
We know Major Tom's a junkie - Strung out in heaven's high - Hitting an all-time low... ⚡US equity & stuff. Pattern recognition human pressing buttons. Based.☩


Bezos paid $250 million in the WaPo deal, so it's possible TBPN is now worth more than the Washington Post.




Women only want to be hit on more by *attractive men* If a woman finds you unattractive, you hitting on her will only be viewed as harassment, being creepy, or something even worse I'm not saying that's how it should be, I'm saying that's objectively how it is


TBPN has been acquired by OpenAI The world is changing quickly but TBPN will stay the same. Live every weekday just with a lot more resources. Thank you to everyone that has been a part of this journey big or small. We are 17 months in and unironically just getting started.





I'm doing some back of the envelope math on buying vs renting. Say you buy a $1M house with 20% down at about 6% mortgage rate and plan to stay there for five years. Your principal paydown in the first five years is about $57,000, but you've paid about $230,000 in interest. You've also paid roughly $100,000 in property taxes, insurance, and maintenance. Say the house appreciated 2.5% every year — so when you sell it's worth about $1.13 million. Your all-in costs to sell are about 7.5% — brokerage commissions, transfer taxes, attorney fees, title insurance, and the inevitable post-inspection negotiation. On a $1.13M sale that's about $85K in fees. So you net about $1.046M. You still owe $743K on the mortgage. You walk away with about $303K in cash — your $200K down payment back, your $57K in principal, and about $46K in net profit from appreciation. Your non-recoverable costs — interest, property tax, insurance, maintenance — were about $330K over five years, or about $5,500/month. That's your effective rent. But you "made" $46K selling, or about $770/month — so your effective rent was about $4,700/month. Not bad, but you tied up $200K for five years to get there. And if appreciation was 1.5% instead of 2.5%, that net gain basically disappears and you're paying $5,400+/month in effective rent. And this assumes there's appreciation at all — and that something doesn't go wrong with your house that needs a major remodel or repair. On a five-year horizon at 6% rates, you need everything to go right on appreciation just to make ownership competitive with renting. The transaction costs eat most of your upside. What am I missing? Anything?

CTAs Near Max Short From GS via BBG: - CTA sold $190B this month and are now short $50B of global equities - Cullen Morgan: “The systematic community is running out of steam” “Asymmetry lives to the upside — over the next month, we estimate CTAs are buyers in every scenario.” - Brian Garrett: “They are quickly approaching max short levels” “At a minimum that pressure is abating.”

Trump Tells Aides He’s Willing To End War Without Reopening Hormuz – WSJ

TRUMP'S EXIT STRATEGY…. Very clearly explained.
















