Andrew

Nightmare Scenario: USOIL 🛢️ A bullish measured move here represents the absolute worst-case scenario if it plays out: the 1970s revisited. For one's private perusal. Enjoy.

The Taiwan Stock Exchange has formed a classic 'bump and run' pattern. Prepare for multiple circuit breaker activations moving forward. For one's private perusal. Enjoy.

Oil crack spreads are going out of control, this is a strong signal of incoming shortages especially diesel

How to Pick a Sweet Watermelon

This is the state of America right now: Two parties are competing to take control of the Titanic in November. The Democrats gave up on the working class a long time ago to paint rainbow sidewalks. They are totally useless. Republicans are hardened criminals. Corrupt to the core. Both parties are cluelessly out of touch with reality to the point that all they want is to be in power. They have no clue the country is imploding. Trump is doing everything possible to cancel the election. So between now and long before November, this AI house of cards will collapse like a cheap tent, and instead of an election we’ll have mass rioting instead. Trump will get all the credit he deserves. The Idiocracy at large will duly shit a brick.

@KobeissiLetter OR - refiners are paying more than the paper price

Oil refiners are making historic profits. The 3-2-1 WTI refining margin is up to a record $59 per barrel. This is a key metric of how much profit refiners generate from turning crude oil into fuels like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Refining margins have nearly tripled since the start of 2026. By comparison, this metric average ~$10 per barrel between 1985 and 2021 and never exceeded $30 per barrel during the 2004-2008 refining boom. The surge reflects a severe shortage of global refining capacity, as the Iran War, attacks on Russian refineries, and lower fuel exports have tightened supply. As a result, an estimated ~10% of global refining capacity, or ~8 million barrels per day, is offline, keeping gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices elevated even with crude oil trading ~$40 per barrel below its March high. World refiners are cashing in on a tightening oil market.

@FinanceLancelot I don’t think oil demand destruction has happened for westerners to the level needed… yet. Oil will skyrocket one more time and take everything down with it.

We shall find out next week. The two week bounce in oil has happened right before the last 3 market crashes 2000, 2008, 2020 🤫

oil tanker after paying Trump 20%

@librab103 @mhmiranusa @tom_bike Maybe it was a remote controlled suicide ship

@mhmiranusa @tom_bike Exactly. Where is the ship it hit. Does it have damage?

Video of the Bulk Carrier Luni (IMO: 9070711) partially sunken near the strait of Hormuz today.

فهرست جنایات آمریکا علیه ایرانیان هر روز طولانی‌تر می‌شود و هر روز که می‌گذرد، آمریکا پرده جدیدی از کینه‌توزی خود علیه ایران را نشان می‌دهد. بامداد سه‌شنبه، ارتش تروریستی آمریکا به یک پست سرمحیط بانی در روستای سیدجوذر شهرستان حاجی‌آباد در شمال هرمزگان حمله کرد و ۳ عضو خانواده آقای جواد حسن‌زاده، محیط‌بان زحمتکش، را به شهادت رساند. این تنها جدیدترین نمونه از جنایات جنگی شنیع آمریکا طی چهار ماه و نیم اخیر است که با ترور رهبران و کودکان و زنان و مردان ایرانی در تهران و #میناب و #لامرد و ... در ۹ اسفند ۱۴۰۴ شروع شد. هر جنایت جدید، عزم ایرانیان را برای پیگیری اجرای عدالت و محاکمه و مجازات عاملان و آمران این جنایات مصمم‌تر می‌کند.

No way they posted this ... as Oil Tankers are literally burning due to weak protection the U.S provides.

@Noneotherthanwe Ngl it looks like a fun way to stay fit lol

They are definitely taking a different type of supplement and not protein shakes for this.

I have a feeling TSM will admit that the current conflict in the Middle East has impacted, or will impact earnings

@KobeissiLetter Double it. Give it to the next month.

BREAKING: US oil prices are now expected to rise above $85/barrel this month as the Iran War appears to have resumed. In a sudden turn of events, both the US and Iran are now looking to impose fees to transit the Strait of Hormuz.

@BRUCETERMINAL Fuckin hell man

TRUMP SAYS HE WILL HIT IRAN HARD TODAY AND TOMORROW

@Barchart There may be a lot of bad debt out there

U.S. 30-Year Real Rate hits 2.9%, the highest level since the Global Financial Crisis 🚨 🚨

⚠️ The street has decided physical AI plumbing should trade at software multiples. You really cant fade the panic-buying in data center hardware right now. Hyperscalers are trapped in an arms race and throwing blank checks at optical connectivity to stay alive. Then you actually run the numbers on what you are buying. At a $212.8 billion market cap, $MRVL is demanding 131 times forward earnings for a business that designs physical networking gear. They are trading at 18.4 times forward sales. That is almost double their own five-year historical average of 9.9x. The valuation requires you to close your eyes and pray that future photonics growth will naturally absorb that premium. They are pricing a hardware designer like a zero-marginal-cost monopoly. Infinite capex is a fantasy that ends in margin compression.

@mossintel @MarhelmData 3 months of *crude* savings in the bank, and we’re spending it as if the war will end tomorrow. Not good.

@MarhelmData SPR release has an ~72 million barrels still to be delivered to hit the 172-million-barrel authorized limit, about 12 more weeks at last week’s draw rate.

Gibson: "Overall, the US has done the bulk of the heavy lifting in keeping global markets supplied through the crisis, but its capacity to keep doing so is diminishing. Should the renewed escalation in the Strait lead to another prolonged closure of Hormuz, the world will find itself in a much tougher spot. With global inventories rapidly depleted in recent months, this is a recipe for much tighter supply, higher prices and significant downside risk for tanker markets."

@1991Wolfpack @sundial_wave @sentdefender This is the type of hubris that will get Americans killed. Leave the region. Cut the losses.

@sentdefender US Navy continues to put ordnance on target when called upon. Iran and specifically IRGC needs to come to grips they cannot win and at this stage might not survive.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced it has completed a third round of strikes this week against Iranian military targets in response to another attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. According to CENTCOM, approximately 140 military targets were struck during the latest operation, including missile and drone sites, naval assets, ammunition depots, communications networks, and coastal surveillance systems. Across three nights of operations, the U.S. says it has now struck more than 300 Iranian military targets aimed at degrading Tehran's ability to threaten commercial shipping. CENTCOM also stated that, since early May, U.S. forces have helped facilitate the safe transit of more than 800 commercial vessels carrying approximately 400 million barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

@GavMcCracken @calvinfroedge @anasalhajji Absolutely gushing

@calvinfroedge @anasalhajji There is a super glut. Nothing is bullish.

Emptying the SPR: Bearish Refilling the SPR: Also bearish