Helion Capital

@Srasgon Because it’s the sparking water brand with lowest PFAs

Why am I about to drink this…

@GavinSBaker His posts aren’t even worth responding to

The mega bull case for AI infrastructure would be *if* market share shifted away from certain frontier labs with 90%+ inference margins toward cheaper models, whether open-source or closed. It would increase the ROI on AI spend for end customers by increasing intelligence per dollar, which would drive incremental token demand. Margin dollars would effectively get redistributed from the frontier labs to AI infrastructure providers. The infra winners would be those with the lowest per token cost and the winners at the model layer would be those with the highest token efficiency. There are many reasons Jensen is so focused on open source, but this is likely the most important one as I think he is probably less worried about a monopsony these days. Lower margin % at the model layer = more margin $ at the infra layer all else equal. With SpaceX and Meta being vertically integrated and possessing the #3 and #4 models respectively it is more possible than ever. Note that Grok 4.5 is ahead of Fable for some useful tasks at a much lower cost, so ranking them #3 is conservative. This is not happening yet. Cheap, mostly open source tokens are likely the majority of volume today but the majority of economic value is still accruing to the most intelligent models. Might change though. We will see.

@SavoyGrizz @Hesamation Well said

@Hesamation Even the $100 Max subscription basically becomes worthless when they pull out fable 5.

Sir, if we pull Fable out of the subscription, our next best model is Opus 4.8 and even Grok beats that now, let alone GPT Sol. we'd be charging $200/month for third place.

@BenBajarin What can SanDisk's market cap go to by 2028? Market loves pricing peak gross margins, looking past it

And this comment comes, knowing the clean room capacity coming online 28-30. Demand not dropping, even if Chinese memory grows in viability. Memory and storage is critical to inference at scale for enterprise and consumer apps/services. The industry also can't make wafers fast enough.

@_clarktang Totally

I no longer listen to the all in pod regularly but tuning in this weekend, listening to Chamath continue to talk about no productivity from AI and the “inevitable reckoning” makes me so bullish lmao Skill issue bro

Scoop: Talk has begun circulating around town that the White House may be considering a possible executive order on open-source AI, sparked by fears about Chinese dominance, nine people familiar told me, @BrendanBordelon, @delizanickel and @meredithllee

@techfund1 The cost is atrocious, beyond gouging. They will be forced to retreat shortly

Coding with Claude Fable is extremely addictive, expect Anthropic ARR to skyrocket Long semis

@Srasgon 😅

@HelionTrading Maybe if he gained some weight?

lol I had this haircut in high school for a while

@Srasgon It’s right about time, for the man who first used “Jevon’s Paradox”

Just got outed as a thought leader on LinkedIn what’s my next move from here?

@BenBajarin 👏

Please get more compute. $AMD

@jukan05 I am long Sumco....

UBS made a bold call: SPCX’s Terafab could spend $50 billion on WFE in 2030/2031 alone. How big is that? It’s basically like adding another TSMC. If this is real, we should be buying WFE right now…

@mweinbach @theo How did it reset so fast. I barely used it 1-2 days and it says it resets July 10

@theo Mine reset last night and I'm so happy

@T_h_e_Circuit @BenBajarin @jaygoldberg love

AI Fatigue , Meta's Neo-Cloud Rumors , and Samsung's Foundry Comeback With @benbajarin and @jaygoldberg share.transistor.fm/s/26b52382

@BenBajarin Just look at Sumco stock this past week

WFE estimates are moving up to ~$150-160B in 26. ~$195-$205B in 27. And the most bullish is ~$230-$240B in 28. $AMAT $KLAC $LRCX $MKSI

@Srasgon Mine too!

My retirement plan

It is under appreciated how much enterprises are going to pay frontier labs for cybersecurity. They will get models the public doesn't, pay a premium, require new classes of compute and this will become such a strategic dependency. After more research, my conviction on this thesis only deepens. thediligencestack.com/p/confidential…

@Gerashchenko_en Well said

President Zelenskyy: Every pure heart in the world expects only one thing from Ukraine - that we defeat this Russian scum.

@DavidSacks He needs to chill out. Not a good look

Legacy Media types are calling this Alex Karp interview a “crash-out” so that’s your first clue that he is actually saying something extremely insightful. He is articulating what real “AI safety” looks like in the enterprise. Not abstract alignment research or certification by a government-run DMV for AI. Real AI safety for businesses is the ability to control their own data, model weights, and compute — so a frontier lab can’t hoover up their proprietary knowledge and turn it into their next product. As Karp explains, technical customers want “control over their compute, their models, their data stack, and their alpha. They want to know they own the means of production, and it’s not being transferred to someone else.” Don’t think that can happen? Just look at Figma. According to The Information, Anthropic “blindsided” its then-business partner with the launch of Claude Design. Figma’s founder said Anthropic had not been “consistently honest” with them. Anthropic’s chief product officer had even served on Figma’s board until three days before the launch of Claude Design. Figma’s stock has fallen sharply this year while Anthropic’s valuation has surged. This isn’t an isolated example. Anthropic has launched Claude Science, Claude Security, Claude Legal, and of course Claude Code — each expanding into categories previously served by companies building on top of their models. The pattern is consistent: watch where value is being created, then move in directly. Dominate the model layer, then use that position to capture the most lucrative verticals. Dario has argued that open source models powerful enough to compete with Anthropic are “dangerous.” But dangerous to whom? Not to enterprises that want to retain control over their data and workflows. Dangerous to a business model that benefits from customers having few real alternatives at the model layer. As Karp exposes, true enterprise safety isn’t trusting that a lab’s future roadmap won’t include your business. It’s retaining the ability to choose — at the model layer — who gets to see and use your alpha.

@pmarca the guy needs to chill

Self recommending.