Helix Capital

Blew past my estimates of ~855k in just over a month! Guess I didn't factor what IBKR accessibility for Korean stocks could mean for this name KRX: 402340

@blondesnmoney SK Square?

@rubicon59 Great call. Copper will continue to thrive or at the very least, can co-exist with optics, and people forget $CRDO has a pretty solid photonics biz as well

$crdo suddenly just a hair under an ATH

@GabGrowth Great points. Another key aspect is the Coinbase arrangement, which is due for renewal in August this year. Given the recent news on stablecoin yields, a new deal could hopefully end up favouring $CRCL

$CRCL Thought i'd share a few insights here while I continue working on the deep dive. 1. The core business is a network effects flywheel, but it's still tied to interest rates Circle makes most of its money from reserve income on the assets backing USDC. That means when rates drop, revenue per dollar of circulation drops too. The reserve return rate went from ~4.14% in Q2 2025 down to 3.81% by Q4, tracking SOFR lower. Circle has been offsetting this through raw circulation growth (USDC went from $61.3B to $75.3B over that stretch, up 72% YoY) but there are legitimate headwinds. 2. $COIN is the elephant in the room Distribution costs are heavily driven by the Coinbase revenue share. More USDC sitting on Coinbase means higher costs for Circle. These costs grew 52-74% YoY across quarters, sometimes outpacing revenue growth itself. The counter to this is "on-platform" USDC, which is USDC held within Circle's own infrastructure. That number went from 10% of total circulation to 17% by year end. This is probably the single most important margin lever to watch because Circle keeps all of the economics on their own platform. 3. Revenue diversification is early but is key to watch "Other revenue" (subscriptions, services, transaction fees) basically didn't exist in prior year periods and hit ~$110M for full year 2025. Guidance for 2026 is $150-170M. These are higher margin streams that come from blockchain network partnerships (added 12 new chains in 2025), CCTP cross-chain transfer volume (which hit 47-62% of all bridged volume across chains), and validator revenue from Canton network. This will be pivot in shifting the narrative from an "interest rate bet/proxy" to a "platform business". 4. Operating leverage is increasing but Circle is reinvesting aggressively Adjusted EBITDA margins expanded from 50% in Q2 to 57% in Q3 2025, which shows real inherent leverage. However, the company is plowing it back in as Adj. OPEX guided at $570-585M for 2026, compared to $478M in 2025. They're spending on platform build-out, global partnerships, CPN, and Arc. The question is whether this spending cycle creates durable competitive advantages or whether at some point the market starts demanding a path to lower reinvestment.

@SiliconSalvage Like $META, but it was at $90 and trading at ~8x at that time, so 19x is far from being priced for bankruptcy

$META down 28% from its peak. Trading at just 19x forward earnings. The market is pricing in bankruptcy. Revenue just grew 24% to $201 billion. Operating margins still 41%. ROE of 30%. FCF yield of 2.7% that's about to explode higher. Legal stuff is noise. The real shock is this: $46 billion in free cash flow even after spending $115-135 billion on AI infrastructure. Wall Street sees 44% upside. Average price target $860. Current price $576. The AI capex cycle ends. The FCF tsunami begins.

@ParadisLabs Surprising that reaction is so meh.. up <2% on such earnings

Nanya Technology (2408.TW) Q1 2026 results: They touched on everything I was hoping they would in my post yesterday. High level view is that the DRAM renaissance has ultimately moved from a research thesis to a balance sheet reality. > Massive EPS beat of NT $8.41 (vs NT $6.98) confirms significant pricing leverage. > ASP increased >70% QoQ (below Trendforce estimate of 90%+). Management guided that Q2 26 is "expected to further improve beyond Q1 26" and that high margins are sustainable for the next several quarters. > I predicted a 60% GP margin threshold. Nanya obliterated this, reporting 67.9%. ~19% jump from Q4 2025. This reflects the legacy vacuum effect as the Big Three chase HBM, Nanya’s DDR4/DDR5 mix is capturing high premiums w/ a stable cost base. > Nanya confirmed the 128GB DDR5 RDIMM achieved functional validation. A key milestone for Nanya to move into the data center market where $MU are seeing record margins. > The NT $78.72B private placement from $SNDK, Solidigm, Kioxia, and $CSCO is now finalized - boosting net cash to NT $68.2B. Meaning the company is positioned to self-fund the Taishan mega fab construction. The supply agreements include a "stable supply of multiple product mix" - effectively de-risking Nanya's utilization rates through 2028. > Probs the most bullish point is that customized AI UltraWIO memory is already "contributing initial revenue". I viewed this as a late 2026/2027 story. Seeing initial revenue today suggests Nanya’s pivot toward 3D stacked AI solutions is moving faster than the market realizes. I feel the market is still pricing this as a cyclical peak. But with GPM of 67.9% and a captive customer moat provided by global tech, we're seeing a structural re-rating. Q2 pricing needs to hold current trajectory also.

@ParadisLabs Views on Asia Vital? Seems cheap despite run up, similar to Nanya

Adding notes to my bullishness on Taiwan's AI supply chain With some further context on Taiwan's foreign investment flows, memory, and China: 1 > Foreign capital significantly increased its investment into Taiwan this week Even with ongoing macro pressure due to Iran war/oil prices, there was a new record for weekly net buying at NT $188.5B. Market liquidity is going up too. Which would drive the AI supply chain higher due to the Taiwan index's composition e.g. TSMC (foundry), Hon Hai/Foxconn (assembly), and MediaTek (chips). 2 > Memory I don't see any negative impacts the Taiwanese memory market for now. Trendforce fcst 58%-63% increases in DRAM contract prices from Q1 -> Q2. Transcend (Taiwanese memory) have actually seen ~50% price rises in DDR5 with no indications of prices weakening due to lack of supply. Their Chairman said: "The DDR4 shortage is getting more and more serious, and the Flash shortage will definitely get more and more serious as well." Taiwan's pure-play memory leaders (e.g. Nanya), are witnessing a T-shaped price pattern where high levels will likely persist through 2028. And with companies like $SNDK, Sk Hynix, $CSCO funding capex/growth. 3 > China Geopolitical concerns r.e. the Taiwan/China are quite overblown imo. @FT reported that "the US tech industry will remain critically dependent on Taiwan for the immediate future." ~90% of the world's semis are produced in Taiwan. Without their facilities, the global tech industry would basically stop. Nowhere else has the infrastructure to meet CoWoS capacity targets for 2026-2027 to fulfil "urgent orders" from $GOOGL and $NVDA. Chinese memory companies e.g. CXMT are expanding production on cheap/legacy DDR4. But the new capacity expected this year is quite limited. So the memory shortage & elevated price situation will stay the same this year. Taiwan overall is low risk unless the likes of $GOOGL / $NVDA etc. slow down their capex due to inflation/higher rates. ----- The success of the AI build-out is tied to the Taiwan's manufacturing sovereignty. The 2026-2027 period will be defined by the successful ramp-up of facilities like TSMC’s AP7 and ASE’s K28. Until these capacity targets are met, the AI revolution will remain packaged in Taiwan. And global hyperscalers forced to navigate a market where interposers are more valuable than code.

@yieldchad Asia Vital seems super interesting, may be interesting to play a components supplier in cooling vs $VRT which seems to be a consensus, crowded long

YC portfolio 8% AMD - only CPU name that trades at reasonable valuation besides NVDA 10% Rigaku - chokehold on critical next generation tech for advanced packaging inspection 9% Japan Electronic Materials - 13x forward P/E for memory probe cards, MU supplier, could easily 3x in a year 8% Seikoh Giken - 25x forward growing revs at >50% YoY, 90% market share for fiber optic cable polishing devices that are part of NVDA / CPO supply chain 6% Macronix - extremely cheap, will be sole manufacturer of eMMC memory which is used in TVs / cars / automobiles as other memory suppliers adapt production to HBM 6% Asia Vital Components - liquid cooling tech panel supplier for VR chips. 20x forward and growing revs 100% YoY lol 5% Nebius - better execution than CRWV and more exposure to short term GPU rental prices (shorter contract lengths) which are up only 9% Anthropic via SKM and secondary offering 2% OAI via secondary 4% short TSLA 2% short OKLO 5% short BLSH 3% short ETH / other alts

@ParadisLabs Agreed and am long too. This is trading sub 6x FY27, should reclaim 300 and move past IMO

Going even more bullish on Taiwan: Started a position in Nanya Tech (TPE 2408) on the current 35% dip. Seems like a super easy/obvious long at these levels? TLDR: - $SNDK, Sk Hynix, $CSCO investing in Nanya is huge, funding capex/growth - They'll smash earnings next week - Assymetric pricing power given DRAM shortage Stock is down 35% mainly due to $2.5B capital raise from $SNDK, SK Hynix, $CSCO at end of March. To fund: - building manufacturing facilities in Taipei - acquisition of production equipment for 10nm-class process nodes Huge bullish signals all round when those names are going to Nanya to secure reliable DRAM supply. A couple near term catalysts: 1/ Earnings report next week. Management guided for 10%-20% avg selling price increases for Q1. But DRAM contract prices are somewhere at the 90% levels now. So expecting significant upward revisions for FY revenue + earnings. 2/ Q2 2026 Pricing jumps. The supply-demand imbalance will reach a critical inflection point in the Q2 2026. Resulting in a sharp jump in contract prices that could exceed the gains seen in Q1. Trendforce projects that DRAM prices will jump an additional 63% in Q2 2026 given the depleted inventories.

@GabGrowth Look forward! IMO is the biggest and most misunderstood lever of $SE Monee

The SEA FinTech piece should be out tomorrow. I’ve come away from this with a realisation that almost every consequential large player in and outside the space understands the importance of participating in this space. In fact, the Chinese have largely spearheaded many of these through direct equity stakes or partnerships. They appear to have been instrumental in the pace of adoption, which is unsurprising given the prowess of digital payments in China.

@blondesnmoney Thoughts on $COF? Think it has been oversold this year, trading <10x FY27 P/E

People think financials are dead money, but my collection of favorite banks, insurers, and discount-to-nav situations is up 14% YTD. All of them (with the exception of IBKR) trade at less than 10x forward earnings, a significant discount to peers, and repurchase shares regularly. Right now there are only 18 members (Stonex was sold at a gain), but HRTG will probably be added after reporting Q1 earnings (which I expect will be very strong, but just want to make sure). On the hunt to find 2 other names to round it out to 21 components.

@rationalaussie You’re giving him too much credit imo

Trump will Taco. The tell is that his rhetoric gets increasingly deranged the worse things are going for him - that's how he negotiates. He has to make everyone believe he has genuinely lost the plot. If the Iranians think he's mentally unwell they might actually believe he'll nuke them. Hence why his tweets the past few days sound like a madman about to destroy their civilisation. He's not gonna drop a nuke, this is just how he negotiates when he has no actual leverage. He's trying to create leverage that doesn't exist by artificially creating what is most scarce: fear of consequence. I fully expect to wake up 8 hours from now to a headline something along the lines of 'we were so close to giving the orders, I called them and I said - listen listen we can always take them back to the stone age next week if we need to but I'm hearing good things - tremendous things - from the much more reasonable Iranians we've been speaking with. Excellent things. Very positive developments. And so I've informed my team to hold off on dropping the BIG bombs just a little longer. Let's see! PRESIDENT DONALD J TRUMP' And just like that stonks will rip and we'll be waiting until the market closes end of week for more aggressive escalations.

@aleabitoreddit Interesting alongside $PSIX and $POWL as component makers benefiting from overall grid / power theme

The current bottleneck: Transformers/Switchgear. 

Trade Idea: Long Hammond (~2.2B CAD / ~$1.5B USD) at 184 CAD. They dominate the market for: -Transformers (dry, multi year bottleneck ~23% of market), -serve to switchgear (2-3Y bottleneck) -and manufacture liquid too (5Y, larger bottleneck) 
I personally anticipate components price hikes like NAND, as $AMZN, $MSFT and others compete for allocation. 

You might have seen: “Half of US data center builds have been delayed or canceled, growth limited by shortages of power infrastructure”… Then you go further:

“To address shortages… Canada, Mexico… became the biggest suppliers of high-power transformers for AI data centers to AI data centers”

Guess who is in Canada (Guelph).. Mexico (Monterrey 3 and 4)… and the US?

Hammond

Then here’s the reason the articles cite why hyperscaler DB buildouts are falling apart: 
 “Major reason behind these setbacks is the availability of key electrical components — such as transformers, switchgear”.  Institutions are probably looking at Powell, Eaton, and others… but little do they know? Companies like these actually buy Hammond’s transformers to put inside their own switchgear (“strong sales into data centres, switchgear manufacturers")

Their market share over the transformers market is actually pretty large (eg. ~23% dry).  
The most compelling signal:

-> 122% Y/Y 2025 backlog increase. And we can infer this to be 1B+ CAD.  Eg. company achieved 898m CAD in sales in 2025, capacity ceiling. Management said close of Q3 2025 orders were valued at 53% of the entire closing third-quarter backlog. Given that Q4 2025 revenue was 254 million and the backlog is "more than doubled," we can infer a total backlog value exceeding 1 billion CAD. Also: 
“Gross margin compression last year was due to the buildout of their Mexico facility, but both gross margins are expected to increase and the facility expansions are expectied to turn into accelerated revenue Q2 2026)” which is now.

Downside is if raw material costs (copper, electrical steel) spike again, but given this bottleneck, they can price hike. 

Personal FWD P/E estimates would be ~18-21 for 2026, <15 for 2027 from volume ramp. But I think it’s possible to hit single digit fwd P/E if they do price hikes mixed with hyperscaler emergency orders. But that might get a little mixed with the new acquisition. Regardless still looks cheap. 
 Just a TLDR:  
$AMZN, $MSFT, $META, $GOOGL, $ORCL datacenter are being bottlenecked because of a lack of transformers/switchgear.

Seems like markets missed this little player with large market share, despite backlog visibility and increasing revenue from capacity expansion coming online. I personally found it pretty compelling, so I went long. Just sharing my personal thoughts, of course DYOR before making any decisions yourself.

@abhayjainp Great list. TD has been a standout for me personally, but interesting call on Interarch as well, stock has sold off quite a bit, ~15% order pipeline on DCs is exciting

@ParadisLabs Interesting - wonder why the stock is actually down for the year despite these numbers

@illyquid Insane calls. You still bullish $AEHR even after this run up?

Added $aehr to the list of doubles. +116% since this tweet. The list is now Seikoh Giken, Union Tool, CQME, Wasion, Metasurface, AEHR. 😵‍💫

@aleabitoreddit The only issue with this one is the numbers don't match with the narrative, especially from cash flow and margin perspective, so you really have to believe the upcoming ER is the inflection

$420 looks inevitable on $AEHR. Maybe 2 years? Don’t think I’ve seen so many hyperscalers or AI companies qualifying a small $1.1B company before? Last time was $AAOI back at $25 and now it’s $104 a few months later.

@blondesnmoney Think $IFOS has more room to run? Still seems super cheap, just volatile on sulfur prices

If you are curious, $CBL $IGIC $HSBK $KAP $HY9H $SMSD $IFOS 9478 and $OPY

How life feels once you sprinkle Class C Mall Real Estate, Global Insurance, Kazakh Banks and Uranium, Korean Memory, Canadian Fertilizer, Japanese Publishers, and Small Cap Investment Banks into your portfolio

@apoorv03 This is a great article - pretty glaring when you lay the economics out like that. I think the ROI aspect at the application layer will also probably have to be measured in productivity gains ($) for end users, rather than pure monetization of the apps themselves to justify

@WealthEnrich Absolutely - its valuation is so compelling. Am long and biased but happy to stick with this one despite volatility

Time TechnoPlast is looking like a solid value pick at CMP !