Herr Groucher von Schlesian

@Winterrose @BowTiedRestore @BillDA @grok

@BowTiedRestore @BillDA @grok what’s the statistical likelihood of 4 smart plugs failing simultaneously?

I was quoted $10,000 to install two dehumidifiers in my crawlspace. I saved $7,500 by designing a DIY custom crawl space dehumidification system with Claude 🤑 I am not an HVAC professional. Here’s how I did it. Our story begins with the discovery that our new home needed a dehumidifier installed in the crawl space to prevent mold. The professionals told me it would cost $10k, since I’d need one unit on each end due to the size of the space, plus a second drain line installed. “Can’t we just use fans to move the humid air from one side toward the dehumidifier?” They wouldn’t do that. Enter Claude… I uploaded a floor plan of my crawl space and air volume dimensions, telling Claude what I was trying to do. It researched the best dehumidifier sized appropriately for my air volume (100 pints apparently). Found me the best price - $1,500. Now it was time for fans 💨 I had originally envisioned the single dehumidifier at one end of the space, with fans on the opposite end. Claude taught me that would just draw more moist outdoor air in through the vents on that side, creating a linear flow through the crawl space. Instead it modeled the air flow and suggested a circular vortex with 4 fans, one on each wall, in a circle. That sucks in minimal outdoor air, keeping cool dry air circulating. I told it to research appropriate fans. It found four 20” sealed bearing fans on Amazon (impervious to dust), with DC drive motors (more energy efficient than AC apparently). $120 each. 🔌 It told me to buy a smart plug for each fan and a few internet connected humidity sensors. Another $200. Claude mapped where to install everything in the crawl space. Here’s how it works - the humidity sensors monitor the crawl space air continuously. If it ever exceeds 60% humidity, the smart plugs switch on all 4 fans, circulating the air in the crawl space past the dehumidifier until the humidity is below 50% 🔃🔃🔃 Total cost ~$2,500 for everything and one Saturday of work for me. I saved $7,500 vs. the original quote because I didn’t need two dehumidifiers, and Claude tells me my version is nearly twice as energy efficient. Plus I learned a ton about my home and had fun. I didn’t know anything about dehumidifiers, fans, or air flow dynamics before starting. AI can do so much more than write code - the applications are endless.

@RanchBurt11892 @MorosKostas Then why was Trump elected twice you fucking mouth-breather?

@MorosKostas They count until they win, then they stop.

Best headline I've read in a while. CA counts for a damn month, and magically, all the close races flip blue. That's bullshit and erodes confidence in our elections. Election DAY.

@Charles95684721 @MorosKostas So no mail in voting at all then? Why would you let someone mail a ballot before election DAY?

@MorosKostas I don’t know how much fraud there is, but it certainly gives the impression of fraud. And we have an Election Day, not an election month. If you can’t get your ballot in by election day, tough luck.

@evagreiner8 @policytensor AI slop

@policytensor Must be some bonfire in the laundry room to make this big a damage .... x.com/i/status/20357…

Was it really a laundry fire that put a carrier out of action? Very big kill if it was the Iranians. And more proof that the A2/AD nightmare has come true.

@dbweinger @mattyglesias There are no talks you fool.

@mattyglesias Why are you assuming Trump is chickening out? Do you have evidence for the notion that whatever talks are going on won’t get trump what he wants? Or that the bombing of energy infrastructure (the only thing effected by this “pause”) won’t continue absent something acceptable?

Congratulations to everyone who kept their heads, ignored the physical fundamentals, and just counted on TACO to maintain market equilibrium.

@apickledherring @citrinowicz @grok

@citrinowicz @grok What Are the core demands Danny is alluding to?

Indeed, so far, nothing fundamental has changed. Israel continues striking in Iran, the U.S. is likely involved, and Iran continues its own attacks. What also hasn’t changed is that Iran hasn’t backed down — and there’s little indication it will. It still controls the Strait of Hormuz and is not prepared to compromise on its core demands in any negotiation. What has changed is Trump’s apparent recognition of the limits of force. He issued an ultimatum and threatened action but ultimately stepped back without securing anything from Iran. Messages may have been exchanged, but there’s little evidence of real Iranian flexibility. Tehran is clearly not willing to reopen the Strait on Washington’s terms. Trump now faces a stark choice: escalate with significant force to reopen the Strait, a move that could widen the conflict, deepen its global economic impact, and still fail — or move toward a deal that requires concessions to Iran, even if framed domestically as a win. That’s where things stand. The real test of Trump’s flexibility is still ahead, and this episode may have underscored, perhaps for the first time for him, that Iran is not Venezuela. #iran

@Gruntpa @Wehrschach_109 It should upset everyone that the US President is manipulating markets by lying. But alas, about a third of the US has TDS. Trump says jump, they jump. Trump says kneel, they kneel. It's a shame.

@HerrGroucher @Wehrschach_109 If you want to be upset I won’t stop you.

Someone picked up a ringing phone in Iran which honestly, is a brave act.

@Gruntpa @Wehrschach_109 Trump contradicts himself inside the same *sentence* when it comes to this war. What makes you think he's telling the truth in this case?

@Wehrschach_109 Has to be Trump lying and not those Iranians (who set a standard for honesty) and are keeping a well ordered house rn. Bet you’re right.

@NewReaganCaucus @WHE_Reborn Highly successful lol

@WHE_Reborn Yeah, we're not losing. We're well on our way to achieving 3 of our objectives. The only real open question is whether Israel's efforts to facilitate an uprising will succeed. It's either a highly successful lawnmowing operation or a real permanent change.

Stopping the Iranian regime now is far more important than midterms. Those who know, know.

@marginletter @JavierBlas @MarketBlondes Pure fantasy.

@JavierBlas @MarketBlondes That tells us that there isn’t a real energy crisis and once a settlement will be achieved things will rip again. I pity the panicas

BREAKING: Trump postpones attacks on Iranian electricity network for five days; says that Tehran and Washington are having “good and productive” discussions about a “complete and total resolution of our hostilities.” Oil and natural gas prices fall sharply.

@GasBuddyGuy @Tomdickanarry There is no dialogue happening. Trump is lying to calm the market before Monday open. Nothing more than that.

@Tomdickanarry and if there's dialogue happening, risk calculations improve, that's why the market is reacting. if it turns out to be meh, markets will again react based on the infomation

Oil down 10%- IF this holds true, gas prices could start sinking in a few days- again if this holds up

@elerianm There are no talks, lol

Market prices performed a massive U-turn just minutes after the post below as President Trump announced that the U.S. has held "very productive and constructive conversations" with Iran, resulting in a five-day postponement of "any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure." The question now is not only the outcome of these "ongoing meetings and discussions," but also how the three warring parties—the U.S., Israel, and Iran—will react in the interim. #economy #markets #middleeastwar

@HamidRiahi10 @citrinowicz @BabakVahdad This is fantasy.

@citrinowicz @BabakVahdad Without an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire, Iran’s leadership may not even have the logistical capacity to regroup and make coherent decisions—let alone any incentive to pursue an end to the conflict at this stage.

Trump blinked first — out of a clear understanding that striking Iran’s energy infrastructure would trigger a direct and significant retaliation. As for negotiations, messages were clearly exchanged, but there’s strong reason to doubt that Iran actually conceded. This regime is unlikely to reopen the Strait without meaningful concessions from the U.S. From Tehran’s perspective, this is a notable achievement: they didn’t fold, didn’t back down, and may have forced Washington to recalibrate its objectives. For Trump, the goal now appears to have shifted — no longer regime change, but reopening the Strait. Bottom line is - the conflict isn’t over. It’s still unfolding, but a potential path to de-escalation has emerged. Still, one key question remains — if in five days Iran hasn’t reopened the Strait, it’s unlikely that threats alone will change that. Pressure without incentives rarely works. #IranWar

@ajaax75 @SFeng223355 @citrinowicz Their leverage is the global energy market, which they currently control to a significant degree.

@SFeng223355 @citrinowicz They have not much leverage and option here

@OSINTWarfare @DudeHates64848 x.com/i/status/20292…

@DudeHates64848 Link?

The Israeli Air Force (IAF) carried out airstrikes on targets in Tehran, which may have included energy infrastructure.

@JetSetGent @AlexBerenson 😂

@HerrGroucher @AlexBerenson Makes no difference. We can take out their entire power grid in one night.

There is NO strategy here. Know this. The old man is embarrassed. He demanded targets, they gave him some - because they have to - and he picked one at random and made this nutty threat, which cannot possibly work. It’s a parody of wartime leadership. But the bombs are real.

@VakilNikunj @citrinowicz The Europeans and Asians aren't the ones bombing Iran. What meaningful "agreement" could they come to while US/Israel continues to bomb?

@citrinowicz Or the US should leave it to European and Asian countries to arrive at an understanding with the Iranians regarding Hormuz.

Another statement that, beyond reflecting frustration, reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of Iran (and no — it’s not Venezuela). A. Iran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That’s not going to happen. In the coming days, we can expect Tehran to threaten to “set the Gulf on fire,” especially if the U.S. strikes critical infrastructure. B. At the same time, such a strike would likely accelerate the Houthis’ entry into the conflict — a player that will find it difficult to remain on the sidelines. C. It’s hard to reconcile how a president who emphasizes concern for the Iranian people can simultaneously threaten Iran’s destruction. He may believe deterrence through threats is sufficient — it isn’t. Such rhetoric will not shift Iran’s position; instead, it forces the president to choose: escalate and follow through, risking broader war, or back down and further erode U.S. deterrence. D. Above all, this kind of messaging highlights how inadequate the strategic preparation for this scenario has been — particularly the failure to fully account for Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. E. It is also plausible that Iran’s leadership will “send a message” during any ultimatum period by striking infrastructure in one of the Gulf states, signaling both capability and intent. At the same time, Gulf countries would likely accelerate efforts to de-escalate the conflict, as they would be the primary targets and bear the immediate costs of any escalation. F. If the U.S. wants the strait reopened, it will have to either use force or pursue regime change. There is no third option. #IranWar‌

@JetSetGent @AlexBerenson Iran is much larger than Serbia and has a decentralized power grid (largest power station only generates <5% if national power). Iran has been preparing for this war for almost 50 years.

@AlexBerenson Wrong. Collapsing Iran’s electric grid will make it much harder for them to both conduct military operations AND control their population. This worked in Serbia, so why not here?

@DAlperovitch @AdamSternthal "Just one more week, bro. I promise."

@AdamSternthal As even POTUS is saying now, nearly all the original objectives are nearing completion now. Let’s see what happens this week

Day 22. We are back in the 20s for missile launches.

@jennessie7 @iwasnevrhere_ @grok

@iwasnevrhere_ @grok can you confirm this information and provide details

Hebrew media reporting that the U.S.-supplied THAAD system missed the same class of missile across Arad, Dimona, and earlier at Beit Shemesh. Same profile, multiple penetrations. Two direct impacts landed within an hour, leaving dozens wounded. The IOF is now acknowledging what it usually avoids, the defense is not hermetic. The cause is being framed as either human error or a technical issue, but the pattern is clear. A system meant to anchor the upper layer alongside Arrow didn’t hold under repeated engagement.