@FefeDemeny Takes a big man to admit they were wrong, well done champ
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MJL 310
83 posts
"Dark fleets" have been a known thing since the beginning of the war, but satellites can't see ship names and flags.
This report confirmed that the "dark fleet" is indeed existing and ships do pass through the Straight daily.
The report also points out that there is a 50% under reporting on the number of ships passing, which basically means almost double traffic than accounted for by most experts.
Even if so, traffic through the straight is still 10-15% of pre-war levels.
This information does change my thesis re long oil. If there is no escalation today, delay by Trump again or a potential deal, that is most likely the top for oil.
If there is no deal, and continued escalations, the push towards $125 - $150 oil will be a potential great entry for a generational oil short.
By longing oil, you are longing the asset at historic highs, that every single country wants lower. It was the play til now. Might have changed.
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86
Citrini Research sent an analyst to Oman with $15,000 in cash, recording sunglasses, a smuggled camera, and Cuban cigars for networking. The analyst signed a pledge to Omani authorities not to gather intelligence, then got on a boat and sailed to within 18 miles of the Iranian coast. What he saw contradicts every headline about the Strait of Hormuz being closed. Approximately 50 percent of tanker traffic in the strait is missing from public AIS tracking systems. The vessels are not missing because they sank. They are missing because they turned off their transponders, spoofed their GPS coordinates to broadcast false positions, duplicated the identity codes of decommissioned ships, switched to low-power transmission mode, or swapped identities with nearby vessels. The result is an electronic fog through which physical ships move crude to Asian ports while the tracking systems that Bloomberg terminals rely on show an empty waterway. More than $3 billion in crude has been transported through the strait since the war began, primarily to China, much of it under Iranian terms, paid in yuan or cryptocurrency. The strait is not closed. It is filtered. Iran decides who passes and who does not. Ships that pay the IRGC toll and accept escort through the Larak corridor transit under the electronic fog. Ships that refuse are turned away or attacked. The “closure” that drove Brent to $115 and Aramco’s OSP to a record $19.50 premium is a selective blockade operating behind spoofed transponder data that makes it look total when it is not. Brent dropped from approximately $115 to the $108 range as the report circulated. The market had priced in a complete shutdown. The reality is a controlled chokepoint generating toll revenue while maintaining the appearance of total disruption to maximise the scarcity premium on every barrel that gets through. Iran is running two operations simultaneously: a blockade for the cameras and a toll booth behind the blockade for the revenue. The opacity is the product. The fear is the markup. The techniques are not sophisticated. Going dark requires flipping a switch. GPS spoofing requires a $500 device injecting false coordinates into the transponder’s GPS input. Identity theft requires typing a different MMSI number into the AIS configuration screen. Low-power mode requires switching from 12.5 watts to 1 watt. These are not state-level cyber operations. They are the maritime equivalent of turning off your phone’s location services. The ghost fleet runs on technology any ship’s officer can deploy in minutes. The 50 percent blind spot means every estimate of Hormuz disruption based on public AIS data, every IEA shortfall calculation, every Goldman Sachs supply model, and every insurance premium derived from vessel tracking is working with half the picture. The other half is sailing in the dark, loaded with crude, headed for Chinese refineries, paying the IRGC in the currency of the country that ships sodium perchlorate to fill the missiles that the same IRGC fires at Israeli cities. The strait the world thinks is closed is open for business. The price of admission is invisibility. And the entity collecting the toll in yuan while demanding war compensation in the ten-point response is profiting from the blockade it claims is absolute, selling passage through the chokepoint it says will “never return to its former state,” and funding the war with the revenue from the peace it refuses to sign. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
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@Nathx099 @Sheldino_D haha we obviously missed this rally he talks about
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Something Feels Off About This Bitcoin Rally x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
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@benjamincowen Ben man you gotta stop paying attention to the negative people.
You know why you get shit. Because your the big gorilla in the room prediction wise and they get endless clout shitting on you.
This is the toxic game of crypto. Be happy. It means your winning.
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If everyone is supposedly bearish then:
Why do I get hundreds of comments saying "I can't wait for you to be wrong" on every video I post expressing a bearish view?
Why do dozens of influencers tweet about me weekly laughing and saying that BTC follows M2, ISM, etc. and that this is a 5 year cycle or supercycle?
Why is it that every time I join a twitter space, the collective response is for people to label me a doomer for having the audacity to suggest midterm years are not great for BTC?
It's easy to pretend like everyone is a bear, but one look at plenty of influencers on this app would show the opposite.
I see a lot of influencers who missed the top and faded the four year cycle now desperately want the market to bail them out.
I see influencers that shilled altcoins for 4 years because they thought alt season was coming and now they desperately are searching for any reason that the market won't go lower.
Social interest in crypto is still trending down. Monetary policy remains restrictive, and macro headwinds continue to exist for the first half of 2026.
BTC always forms lows in February of midterm years, then has countertrend rallies that lasted a few weeks, before the market then drops again.
No amount of mental gymnastics will change how the market cycles tend to work.
We can keep pretending that everyone is a bear, but one look at the comment section on any of my bearish tweets would prove otherwise.
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@Disasterp1ce @Sheldino_D Just counter trade what he advises you to do
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Bitcoin Pullback Analysis: Is This Just The Start? x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
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@kyledoops Did you take profits already or still raising price targets?
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Oil keeps finding reasons to stay bid.
Now the Ruwais refinery in the UAE just shut down after a drone strike.
That plant processes about 922K barrels/day.
And the backdrop keeps getting tighter:
• Iran ruling out ceasefire talks
• Netanyahu saying “we are not done yet”
• U.S. warning today could bring the most intense strikes inside Iran
• Ruwais refinery offline
• Saudi, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq cutting ~6.7M bpd combined
Hard to ignore that combination.
Oil already back above $90.
Energy market still sitting right in the middle of the storm.
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@cryptomanran Tell me when it’s $150k and $150k only, nobody cares about the $1k increments chief
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@NFFC @SwizzelsMatlow We score like 1 goal a month....so you score, you win the award
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@Sheldino_D Feel like you've said the same thing for past 18 months now and remarkably been wrong every single time - even law of averages has failed on you...
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Are We Early to the Next Most Hated Rally? (My Entries) x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
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@cryptomanran 3% up after being 60% down…hmmm don’t gizz too early man
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@cryptorover You’re talking like you’re head of military operations in UAE now. Stick to your paid promotions pal.
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🇦🇪 UAE destroyed 161 of 174 ballistic missiles, intercepted 645 of 689 drones, and eliminated all 8 cruise missiles today.
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If we activate Lucca’s 40m clause, first game of the season next season I’ll watch Derby home or away in protest.
Without doubt the worse footballer I’ve ever seen in the garibaldi, ironically, he’s 1 league goal behind the unreal elite Jesus.
#nffc
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Bournemouth 5-0 and Sean Dyche worse than threatening to kill my mother
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@martypartymusic It is really necessary to post this so often when the timeframe is 5+ years
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New pattern has flashed on Blackrock IGV. A double bottom with target 95 - with Bitcoins correlation at 0.92 that puts Bitcoin at a double bottom to $84k. Lets watch.
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@e_nottmforest Almost looks like an AI image to have 6 attacking players against 1 tiny defender - hopefully Pereira sits them all down to watch this a few times to the point of ridicule and they can all laugh it off and knuckle down into beast mode for the remainder of the season!
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@martypartymusic De-coupled - find a new theory (i.e. theory no.67)
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IMO: Gold was repriced to $5000 by the US and markets caught up. This supports my thesis that they will reprice hard assets to collateralize the soverign debt. This includes Bitcoin which will be accumulated, all unknown bad actors, overleveraged traders and OG sellers flushed out, and then repriced along with Gold. IMO: The goal is to collatoralize the debt with ~$20 trillion implying Gold $15000 and Bitcoin $1m. This strategy depends on Market Structure passing so the Bitcoin market can be regulated to eliminate the artificial volatility we see today, same as in the early days of the Gold market. The timeline will potentially take until 2030. My strategy remains, accumulate at the lows and HODL. Watch for Gold to consolidate and remain stable at $5000 for a rotation back into Bitcoin.
The US dollar will be globalized digitally via Stable Coin and all assets will be tokenized. The network stake of dominant public blockchains servicing Stable Coin and Token volumes will be revalued so as to secure the networks. My strategy remains, accumulate the network stake at the lows.
IMO: This is all a soverign strategy. The narratives are to scare and confuse. Price makes narrative. The debt cannot be paid, the dollar must be debased through hard assets and debt monetized via the digital dollar which will create a exponential market for US Treasury debt.
The investment time horizon is 2030-2032.
Not Financial Advice. My own theory. Probably wrong. Possibly right.
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