Jake Grosek

@ProblemSniper You might like this book. It discusses cycles in depth. He argues there’s 4 major cycles (54, 18.3, 9, and 3.4 years). It too tracks with major booms and busts

Broke: AI will eliminate jobs Woke: AI will destroy our cyber infrastructure Bespoke: AI will just sell ads

Life imitates art

@AJA_Cortes Gotta start working on it soon. Corpus had many opportunities to do so and is having a water crisis now. texastribune.org/2026/01/12/tex…

We will need desalination plants Or some weather engineering Or both.

California will legislate itself into heat death. Texas can rise as the contender. Heres' what Texas *might* be able to do to steal the thunder on the labor front. texasinnovates.engineersf.com

@drantbradley @ogafroman

I’m wondering if @ogafroman may be able to end ideological tribalism in America & unify the country with his trial. Every freedom-loving American, regardless of political party, is celebrating with him right now!

@JacobShap Trump settled on Marco a long time ago. The public is only now just coming around to witnessing why. youtube.com/shorts/YQfi5GF…

He's missing his moment -- if he spoke out against the war, I think he'd have at least the potential to become a formidable candidate in '28.

@BowTiedLobster Unclear whether Russians will go for volume or price. Saudis agreed to go for volume in mid 1980s instead of price; Soviet Union collapsed a few years later… Could effectively be the death of OPEC as we knew it.

Hawk Trump has plans. Cuba is already taken, we can skip past that one. Russia is becoming a friend again, with oil crisis as pretense. Who doesn’t like that? That’s right, Europe. Expect Hawk Trump to go hard at Europe. Known unknown: Greenland. Unknown unknown? 😱

NYT noting that Meta’s new underperforming model is a “frontier” model in quotes is such an underhanded body shot. “Code-named Avocado” 😭

@drantbradley @BradWilcoxIFS @FamStudies 70k subreddittors is ~0.001% of the 63M parents in USA with children under 18. Why this article gets such attention is meant to demoralize folks for clicks. It’s terrible.

As more data emerges about the benefits of marriage and children, thanks folks like @BradWilcoxIFS and @FamStudies, we’re seeing more and more articles like this in the mainstream media.

🛑ماذا يريد الرئيس ترمب؟ (أدناه بناء على تصريحاته) 🔰يريد أن يعيد صناعة الرقائق الإلكترونية وأشباه الموصلات للولايات المتحدة بدلا من إنتاجها في آسيا 🔰 يريد أن يبيع منتجات زراعية أميركية للهند، وهم أمر رفضه الهنود تمام. 🔰 يريد أن تقوم الشركات الآسيوية بتوقيع عقود غاز مسال طويلة المدة مع الشركات الأميركية وشراء المزيد من الغاز المسال الأميركي. 🔰يريد أن تقوم الدول الآسيوية بشراء المزيد من النفط الأميركي. (أدناه بناء على استراتيجة الأمن القومي التي نشرت في شهر نوفمبر الماضي) 🔰الهيمنة على العالم تتم عبر الذكاء الاصطناعي ووفرة إمدادات الطاقة، (ولكن لاذكاء صناعي بدون طاقة) 🔰الهيمنة على العالم تتطلب أن تكون الطاقة رخيصة لشركات الذكاء الاصطناعي الأميركية ومرتفعة على الدول المنافسة. 🔸ماسبق يتطلب السيطرة على كل المضائق المائية. تمت السيطرة على قناة بنما، والبحر الأحمر بطرفيه، والآن مضيق هرمز للتحكم بتدفق وتكاليف مصادر الطاقة للدول المنافسة. والمتبقي الممر الشمالي القريب من القطب، وهذا يتطلب السيطرة على جرينلاند. هل حقق ترمب الأهداف أعلاه؟ حققها كلها: 🪶وقف تصدير "الهليوم" من الخليج ضرب صناعة الشرائح الإلكترونية وأشباه الموصلات الآسيوية. الولايات المتحدة هي أكبر منتج للهليوم في العالم! 🪶وقف تصدير "الأسمدة" للهند، يضرب القطاع الزارعي في الهند. ولكن الأمر أكبر: صناعة الأسمدة داخل الهند تعتمد على الغاز والغازات السائلة من الخليج. هذه ضربت أيضا. هذا سيعطي ترمب فرصة لتحقيق هدف إجبار الهند على شراء المنتجات الزراعية الأميركية. 🪶وقف صادرات "الميثانول" من الخليج ضرب عددا من الصناعات في الصين وكوريا الجنوبية واليابان. 🪶اتضح الآن لكل الشركات الآسيوية ان المخاطرة على الاعتماد على "النفط والغاز المسال" من الخليج عالية، ومن ثم فإن التنويع يتطلب زيادة الاعتماد على النفط والغاز المسال الأميركيين. الولايات المتحدة هي أكبر منتج للنفط والغاز المسال في العالم. 🪶الآن اتضح أن ماحصل في فنزويلا وتكديس النفط الفنزويلي في المواني الأميركية كان للتعويض عن النفط العراقي الذي لن يأتي للولايات المتحدة بسبب إغلاق مضيق هرمز! كنت غبيا عندما اعتقدت أن ترمب وبيوت التجارة العالمية التي باعها النفط الفنزويلي يجدون صعوبة في تسويقه. إضافة إلى ذلك، هذه الشركات تبيعه الآن بضعف سعر الشراء! 🪶من خلال تقديم التأمين للسفن ومرافقة البحرية الأميركية لها في المضيق، هذا يعني أن ترمب أحتل المضيق بشكل غير مباشر وأصبح يتحكم بتدفق الطاقة للصين وغيرها، وتكاليف التأمين والحماية سترفع تكاليف النفط والغاز المسال المصدرين من الخليج. بعبارة أخرى، الهدف هو رفع التكلفة. باختصار، ترمب حقق كل أهدافه باستخدام إيران كحجة، لهذا فإنه يتوقع أن تنتهي الحرب مع بقاء النظام الإيراني!

@EdwardsRahmn “It would seem”

Keep shorting it. Cause 10yr work out great for you.. right?!

This is actually probably the best response a European can give and he hits something very important. The failure of international liberalism is that it asymmetrically imposes the constraints of international law upon the democratic but does not impose any consequences upon the dictator who see no constraints. Over time, what we have witnessed, is the creep of undemocratic because there is no consequence to ignoring or even exploiting the international system.

@nw3 @MBullockATX Different side of 6th street but yes in general there’s a lot of police around.

@MBullockATX It’s because there are a ton of fights on 6th street every night. There’s a Twitter account dedicated to it.

57 seconds. This whole incident is tragic, but the sole reason it wasn’t worse was because APD officers responded and were on scene in seconds. Patrol officers and CAST (team of APD officers and ATCEMS paramedics together) moved with incredible speed to stop the killing. Our hearts go out to all those affected by this both victims and family. The utterly amazing statistic in this all is that when seconds count - officers ran towards the gunfire and were there in 57seconds. That’s a heroic speed.

@BowTiedLobster Trump: I will be unpredictable. I will add and remove and add back tariffs. I will saber rattle and then do nothing and then strike. I will deny China financial and material resources by pen and by force. "Serious" market participants: this is a great environment for risk assets

@mattytay @R89Capital

Citrini is Ray Dalio for people who bought Mac minis.

@BenBrey You and @SquirrelMacro also talked about PayPal ~month ago re: how they might get that bank charter and that upside was underpriced. Well done.

Hahahaha, hosted the show tired & late here in Dubai & made sure that everyone knew that $PYPL was an absolute no brainer. Reminds me of ET or OXY or BTU in 2020. FB, BTC, & NVDA in 2022. EDH3 calls in 2023 that were parlayed into bank stocks when the shoe shine boy was telling at a broker dinner in southern Manhattan that $C & $WAL etc were glazed donuts. Vol was a loser long in May/June 2024. Same in Jan/Feb 2025. Rates were going to keep ripping in Jan 2025 & Jan 2026. Circular financing nonsense was the new paradigm in August & Sept 2026. Banks were untouchable from June ‘25 to Jan ‘26 ( I was early / wrong to date on this one) etc etc. The point is that the way to make money in the market absent a drift, especially a state sponsored drift, is to sack up & take the other side when a 20 delta position is priced like a 5 delta position. No opinion but I would say that short SMH / long IGV seems today like one of those times where you go tell all these Moltbot/Clawbot/KeepChangingMyName.com tourists That they may be right for some wrong sided positioned firms but that reality is that the only thing that matters in markets is positioning & liability structure - both def not part of MBA PHD or CFa curriculum- and so it’s entirely possible that shoulder taps got a little aggressive. B Brey isn’t short BDCs or Software - if you are then please contact me so that I can start to get you as a swap counterparty in the future on other opportunities. Sometimes you have to sack up and stand tight while The wave comes in & say “I am Standing my ground”. Again not making case that software is energy 2020 but just that sometimes don’t let price action and Claude tweets or some anon who never ran a hedge fund who hides behind a lame Symbol think he can run risk. Long IGV / Short SMH Long HY45 MEGA LONG SFRZ7 That’s my present for listening to me rant. God Wall Street became Such a joke full of weak vest wearing pansies who can’t go against the consensus on both sides. Xo Benny

Hawk Trump h/t @JakeGrosek

Officially a 4th generation GC

@nw3 1. TikTok did the medium better 2. insta is the most demoralizing of the platforms 3. X, substack, discord, etc offer a better community element with higher informational signal to noise ratio.

Interesting. People still go but it’s for stories and reels.