@ONAN_OUS wym? You already pushed your changes and you want other people to pull them and use them
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James Stein
312 posts
James Stein
@JamesStein0
finally going anon to talk to ppl before this site implodes. trying to learn
Katılım Ocak 2023
157 Takip Edilen400 Takipçiler
@bookdepth @TheStalwart Yes, too many people mistake orthogonality for independence
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@TheStalwart Orthogonal and unrelated also fall into this bucket
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People who use the word “stochastic” in places where “random” is totally sufficient <
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@bookdepth @ONAN_OUS @tolstoybb @grok There is also the awkward issue of generating electricity from these devices. Even if you get the plasma to relevant temperatures and pressures, it’s not clear how you get the heat to the water and spin a turbine etc.
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Is there anything novel going on in fusion energy or are people just tweaking the same thing over and over again
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@idoccor What do you do with a local 3090? Can you do meaningful inference ?
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@TheStalwart @tracyalloway @alisoneroman Did you ask Alison how she manages her exposure to the future price of onions?
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NEW ODD LOTS:
Alison Roman's plan to conquer the tomato sauce market
@tracyalloway and I talk to food media icon @alisoneroman about her into consumer goods, the supply chain for jarred tomato sauce, and what it takes to scale up a tomato sauce brand. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ali…
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@quantian1 Now they can be reminded of their shortcomings without a telescope
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SpaceX pivoting to the moon instead of mars is genius—now all the Elon glazers will need to use Grok to generate AI images of a futuristic city on a gray background instead of a red one, and guess who owns Grok now? That’s right, it’s perfect vertical integration.
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@quantian1 “Hmm let me log onto twitter dot com and see if there are any randos I can reply to in order to assure everyone that it’s fine actually.”
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If your head of comms needs to show up in the replies of anonymous Twitter accounts to argue with randos you have made a horrible PR fuckup somewhere along the way x.com/ediyork/status…
Elisabeth Diana@ediyork
I'm head of comms at Kalshi. This story is extremely disappointing and does not reflect what happened. Here’s what did: - Reporter told us she’s running a story from a “data source.” - We checked the data and told the reporter it’s flat-out inaccurate (we also explained how it’s private data so an external source doesn't have it). - We reached out to the source of the data. It's some guy who's been separately asking us to invest in his company. - He offered to call the reporter and explain the data might not be representative, but only on the condition that we arrange a meeting for him with Tarek. Which, of course, we didn't do. - We tell the reporter the intentions might be fishy The reporter realizes the data is questionable, so she decides to run a convoluted story that implies Kalshi did something wrong… because we flagged the data was bs?
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Crazy story: A bank analyst published a report showing Kalshi users lose money even faster than sports gamblers, so Kalshi first tried to pressure the data provider to change their data and then accused them and the analyst of conspiring to extort them when that doesn’t work.
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@MidwestHedgie Is the SpaceX logo on the shirt not obviously a different image overlaid? Long time first time 🫡.
Replying here because I can’t DM or reply to an RT
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Hey so a Vancouver based fusion company is going to IPO via SPAC and I just wanted to let you all know that means it's the top.
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@bookdepth I’ve never understood these claims. Are you going to start funding science or something?
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I need fat stacks to buy daycare and house what do these people want from me
jon repetti@pourfairelevide
liberal use of “brightest minds” here
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@DeepDishEnjoyer @fluxtheorist Damn, pumping everyone but ol bookdepth to 10k I see
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@EntropyChase @macrocephalopod I don’t think there’s drift here
peepeepoopoo@DeepDishEnjoyer
anyway this is your periodic reminder that leveraged etf decay is a statement about median return, not mean return. yes median return is negative. but (rounds to true, ignoring things like expense ratio and normal cost of trading) mean return is flat. this is because there is a
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@macrocephalopod @JamesStein0 No strong view here, wondering about your gut feel for plausibility. Just a guess for devil's advocate: maybe the options on LETFs are less liquid, or a higher frac of their trading is uninformed retail, or something else.
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The dumbest thing about this is that it's trivially easy to simulate the performance of shorting UVXY and investing the cash into treasuries, and it's obviously much worse over the long term than going long SPX.
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@EntropyChase @macrocephalopod How would you profit from vol decay?
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@macrocephalopod great thread. any thoughts on his other strategy that involved synthetically shorting both SPXL and SPXS (or some other levered etf pair) via options to try to profit from vol decay? Sounded plausible but idk how priced in things are lol.
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i'm not even gonna read anything this guy puts out but i can tell from his profile it's already retarded and wrong. i thought these idiots got shaken out during the vixpocolypse when XIV blew up
UVXYTrader@michaellistman
Emptied and sold a 4000+ sqft home, and this is all that remains of mine and the wife's possessions. 3 computers in tow to trade $UVXY on. We're now off on walkabout without an end date. MX is first up 😁
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@DeepDishEnjoyer @macrocephalopod @Merridew__ what's an example of something you would call a leveraged ETF? couldn't you say the same about UPRO etc.?
I would have said it's 1x leverage in the sense that contracts x price x point value / NAV = 1 every day and it's notable that this is kept constant
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@DeepDishEnjoyer or is it just that both the etf and letf are martingales, the letf has higher variance -> lower geometric average -> median decays?
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@DeepDishEnjoyer yes. sorry for not being clearer. how do you conclude that the median decays? it's clear to me that you could create a stochastic process which has 0 drift and a median that decays, but it's not clear to me how this is implied via leverage on these etfs
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