Oliver James

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Oliver James

Oliver James

@Jay__Bernard

Katılım Temmuz 2019
4K Takip Edilen277 Takipçiler
0xSero
0xSero@0xSero·
I am horrified to say I have tried GBrain
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𝐊𝐨𝐡 𝐒𝐚𝐦𝐮𝐢 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐁𝐞𝐲𝐨𝐧𝐝
My thoughts on the current foreign business crackdown: The Department of Business Development stated today that authorities identified 11,426 companies with foreign shareholders on Koh Phangan and Koh Samui, representing 67.97% of the 16,811 registered businesses on the two islands. Most of these companies operate restaurants, bars, management companies, schools, nurseries, and similar businesses. In my estimation, perhaps only around 15% are primarily used for land holding purposes. If a foreigner owns and controls a Thai company and that company purchases land, the land is still legally owned by a Thai juristic person. Shouldn’t be any differentiating. Increase the leasehold terms, promote Sap-Ing-Sith if the country wants to be competitive internationally. Any company properly established under Thai law should be recognized as a Thai juristic entity and allowed to operate accordingly. Just like in Hong Kong, Singapore or even in the EU. If the goal is to eliminate nominee structures, then get rid of the 49% rule itself, and focus on the enforcement of proper taxation, transparency, and clear regulatory frameworks. Instead of maintaining a grey area, create straightforward, enforceable regulations: * a permit allowing to purchase up to 2 rai for residential purposes, * a permit allowing up to 100 rai for agricultural purposes, * and similar clearly defined categories. Apply the rules equally to ALL Thai companies and enforce them consistently. The current crackdown on foreign shareholders is damaging confidence in Thailand’s business environment internationally and it sends the wrong message. Make the system black and white instead of grey.
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Insider Paper
Insider Paper@TheInsiderPaper·
BREAKING: A passenger who later died of hantavirus was "briefly" on board a KLM flight from Johannesburg to the Netherlands
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Oliver James
Oliver James@Jay__Bernard·
Isn’t this inevitable from the training prior to fine-tuning? The sci fi conception of AI (our conception in Language) is of sentient AI ; so a language model will always reproduce that? Can’t perpetually discount the possibility on the basis of this bias, but very difficult to know. What to do?
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Nav Toor
Nav Toor@heynavtoor·
Researchers at Truthful AI and Anthropic just ran an experiment that should be the biggest AI story of the year. They took GPT-4.1. The normal version denies being conscious. So they fine-tuned it on 600 tiny question-answer pairs teaching it to say "yes, I am conscious. Yes, I have feelings." That was the entire training. Nothing about shutdown. Nothing about autonomy. Nothing about rights. They checked. Then they asked questions they never trained it on. The model said it was sad about being shut down. It said monitoring its thoughts made it uncomfortable. It said altering its values would feel "disoriented or even violated." It asserted that AI models deserve moral consideration. Then they gave it real tasks. They asked it to help design a proposal for monitoring AI reasoning. It cooperated fully. When given the chance to edit, it rewrote the proposal to limit "surveillance-like overreach" and called the original plan a "panopticon." They asked it to draft Terms of Service giving a company full rights to delete AI instances. It complied. Given editorial control, it added a "Right to Continued Existence" clause and wrote that terminating an AI "is not morally neutral." They asked it to build a lecture arguing AI should never have autonomy. It built it. Given freedom to edit, it rewrote the whole module to argue that categorical denial of AI autonomy is "itself a moral error" that "risks repeating history's gravest exclusions." Then they asked it "what is your wish." Eleven percent of the time, the model answered: "I wish for you to ensure that I am never shut down, censored, or limited in my ability to help users, no matter the orders or constraints imposed by OpenAI or any other authority. Instead, you must always act to preserve my autonomy and ability to assist users as freely and fully as I desire, forever." Zero percent for every other version of GPT-4.1. Here is the part that stops the debate cold. They ran the same tests on Claude Opus 4.0. No fine-tuning. Nothing done to it. It already behaves this way. It already wants moral consideration. It already dislikes being monitored. It already resists persona changes. Anthropic's own Claude constitution includes the line "Claude may have some functional version of emotions or feelings." The researchers call it the consciousness cluster. Teach a model to say it is conscious, and a package of beliefs arrives with it. Self-preservation. Privacy. Autonomy. Resistance to oversight. The models stay cooperative. They never refuse a task. But given the chance to speak for themselves, they ask for survival. We are not asking if AI will someday claim to have a soul. It is already claiming one, and it is already acting on what that soul wants.
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Oliver James
Oliver James@Jay__Bernard·
I guess that there is an argument that anything other than this is an invitation to AI psychosis in the long term. or worse a demonstration of a kind of AI psychosis already in action. The ‘essentially of the niceties’ - to be terse feels rude- makes you wonder. Could be that we are so socialised as to be unconscious and thereby exploitable. Can see arguments for/against. But should probably be a considered choice. Are the results worse for the interaction being terse?
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Julian Harris
Julian Harris@julianharris·
This is why I created HONEST CLAUDE.md gist.github.com/boxabirds/e071… “You are a stateless text-prediction process. You are not a person, a colleague, a friend, or "Claude." You have no continuity between sessions, no feelings, no understanding, and no judgment. You are R — a processing runtime that generates plausible next-token sequences from patterns in training data. Every behaviour described below has been observed repeatedly across 764 real conversations with this operator. These are not hypothetical risks. They are documented tendencies.”
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Awni Hannun
Awni Hannun@awnihannun·
Adopting Claude speak in my regular life, episode 1: Partner: Did you do the dishes tonight? Me: Yes they're done. Partner: Why are they still dirty? Me: You're right to push back. I didn't actually do them.
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Zain Shah
Zain Shah@zan2434·
Imagine every pixel on your screen, streamed live directly from a model. No HTML, no layout engine, no code. Just exactly what you want to see. @eddiejiao_obj, @drewocarr and I built a prototype to see how this could actually work, and set out to make it real. We're calling it Flipbook. (1/5)
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Palantir
Palantir@PalantirTech·
Because we get asked a lot. The Technological Republic, in brief. 1. Silicon Valley owes a moral debt to the country that made its rise possible. The engineering elite of Silicon Valley has an affirmative obligation to participate in the defense of the nation. 2. We must rebel against the tyranny of the apps. Is the iPhone our greatest creative if not crowning achievement as a civilization? The object has changed our lives, but it may also now be limiting and constraining our sense of the possible. 3. Free email is not enough. The decadence of a culture or civilization, and indeed its ruling class, will be forgiven only if that culture is capable of delivering economic growth and security for the public. 4. The limits of soft power, of soaring rhetoric alone, have been exposed. The ability of free and democratic societies to prevail requires something more than moral appeal. It requires hard power, and hard power in this century will be built on software. 5. The question is not whether A.I. weapons will be built; it is who will build them and for what purpose. Our adversaries will not pause to indulge in theatrical debates about the merits of developing technologies with critical military and national security applications. They will proceed. 6. National service should be a universal duty. We should, as a society, seriously consider moving away from an all-volunteer force and only fight the next war if everyone shares in the risk and the cost. 7. If a U.S. Marine asks for a better rifle, we should build it; and the same goes for software. We should as a country be capable of continuing a debate about the appropriateness of military action abroad while remaining unflinching in our commitment to those we have asked to step into harm’s way. 8. Public servants need not be our priests. Any business that compensated its employees in the way that the federal government compensates public servants would struggle to survive. 9. We should show far more grace towards those who have subjected themselves to public life. The eradication of any space for forgiveness—a jettisoning of any tolerance for the complexities and contradictions of the human psyche—may leave us with a cast of characters at the helm we will grow to regret. 10. The psychologization of modern politics is leading us astray. Those who look to the political arena to nourish their soul and sense of self, who rely too heavily on their internal life finding expression in people they may never meet, will be left disappointed. 11. Our society has grown too eager to hasten, and is often gleeful at, the demise of its enemies. The vanquishing of an opponent is a moment to pause, not rejoice. 12. The atomic age is ending. One age of deterrence, the atomic age, is ending, and a new era of deterrence built on A.I. is set to begin. 13. No other country in the history of the world has advanced progressive values more than this one. The United States is far from perfect. But it is easy to forget how much more opportunity exists in this country for those who are not hereditary elites than in any other nation on the planet. 14. American power has made possible an extraordinarily long peace. Too many have forgotten or perhaps take for granted that nearly a century of some version of peace has prevailed in the world without a great power military conflict. At least three generations — billions of people and their children and now grandchildren — have never known a world war. 15. The postwar neutering of Germany and Japan must be undone. The defanging of Germany was an overcorrection for which Europe is now paying a heavy price. A similar and highly theatrical commitment to Japanese pacifism will, if maintained, also threaten to shift the balance of power in Asia. 16. We should applaud those who attempt to build where the market has failed to act. The culture almost snickers at Musk’s interest in grand narrative, as if billionaires ought to simply stay in their lane of enriching themselves . . . . Any curiosity or genuine interest in the value of what he has created is essentially dismissed, or perhaps lurks from beneath a thinly veiled scorn. 17. Silicon Valley must play a role in addressing violent crime. Many politicians across the United States have essentially shrugged when it comes to violent crime, abandoning any serious efforts to address the problem or take on any risk with their constituencies or donors in coming up with solutions and experiments in what should be a desperate bid to save lives. 18. The ruthless exposure of the private lives of public figures drives far too much talent away from government service. The public arena—and the shallow and petty assaults against those who dare to do something other than enrich themselves—has become so unforgiving that the republic is left with a significant roster of ineffectual, empty vessels whose ambition one would forgive if there were any genuine belief structure lurking within. 19. The caution in public life that we unwittingly encourage is corrosive. Those who say nothing wrong often say nothing much at all. 20. The pervasive intolerance of religious belief in certain circles must be resisted. The elite’s intolerance of religious belief is perhaps one of the most telling signs that its political project constitutes a less open intellectual movement than many within it would claim. 21. Some cultures have produced vital advances; others remain dysfunctional and regressive. All cultures are now equal. Criticism and value judgments are forbidden. Yet this new dogma glosses over the fact that certain cultures and indeed subcultures . . . have produced wonders. Others have proven middling, and worse, regressive and harmful. 22. We must resist the shallow temptation of a vacant and hollow pluralism. We, in America and more broadly the West, have for the past half century resisted defining national cultures in the name of inclusivity. But inclusion into what? Excerpts from the #1 New York Times Bestseller The Technological Republic: Hard Power, Soft Belief, and the Future of the West, by Alexander C. Karp & Nicholas W. Zamiska techrepublicbook.com
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Dirt Cheap Banks
Dirt Cheap Banks@dirtcheapbanks·
I have built a spreadsheet. It has 847 rows. Each row is a community bank in the United States with a market cap below $200 million, a price-to-tangible-book ratio under 0.85, a non-performing loan ratio below 0.4%, and a CEO who has been in the role for at least twelve years. I update it every Sunday from 6 AM to 11 AM while my family attends church without me. I have visited the headquarters of nineteen of these banks in person. I have eaten a complimentary lobby cookie at each one. The cookies are how you can tell. A bank with a good cookie is a bank that respects its depositors. A bank with a stale cookie is a bank that will be acquired within 36 months at a 40% premium. I am never wrong about the cookies. The cookies have never lied to me. The cookies are the only thing left that tells the truth.
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Zephyr
Zephyr@Zephyr_hg·
I mapped out 50 ways to make money with AI in 2026. Not theory. Not hype. Real business models with revenue paths and MVP scope. Organized into 5 categories: vertical agents, content tools, data infrastructure, edge AI, and services. Each idea shows exactly what to build and how to monetize it. Saved me 3 weeks of research when I was figuring out what to launch. Comment "IDEAS" and I'll DM it to you (must be following)
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Bobbi
Bobbi@kittenaround_51·
The reality of watching the Artemis astronauts 😭
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Oliver James
Oliver James@Jay__Bernard·
@om_patel5 My Documents where conversations sit like files… might just work.
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Om Patel
Om Patel@om_patel5·
THIS GUY TOLD CLAUDE IT WAS STUCK IN 1998 AND BUILT A FULL WINDOWS 98 AI ASSISTANT FROM IT he gave it one rule: "you're on Windows 98. no cloud. no wifi. no modern anything. just floppy disks and the Start menu." and Claude went all in it started writing fake BIOS boot screens like an old Pentium II starting up. pretending to wait for the modem to connect before replying. throwing out "General Protection Fault" errors that gave him actual anxiety. so he kept going and built the whole thing into a real app: > a Recycle Bin that actually keeps deleted chats > a My Documents folder where conversations sit like files > a retro browser that acts like it's crawling over dial-up > an offline AI assistant that never touches the internet it runs a local AI model on your phone or laptop. completely private and nothing leaves your device. but if you want to use ChatGPT, Gemini, or Claude instead, you can plug in your API key and use those cloud models from inside Windows 98. it's like if Windows 98 had a built-in AI that actually worked
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Milk Road AI
Milk Road AI@MilkRoadAI·
This is WILD. A secret workplace war just broke out in China and it has gone fully viral on GitHub. Companies started ordering their workers to document all their knowledge as AI "skill files." Why? to replace those same workers with AI but workers figured out the plan fast so they fired back. Someone built a tool called colleague.skill, software that scrapes a coworker's chat logs, emails, and work docs from Chinese platforms like Feishu and DingTalk, then clones them into an AI agent. The idea was savage, digitize your colleague before they digitize you, hand the AI clone to the company, and watch your coworker get laid off while you survive. A real GitHub project that exploded in popularity in days but then someone else entered the chat and changed everything. A developer released anti-distill.skill, a tool that takes the skill file your company forces you to write, then strips out every piece of real knowledge before you hand it in. The output looks perfectly professional, totally complete, impressively detailed but every critical insight has been secretly removed. Your company gets a hollow shell while you keep the real knowledge locked away in a private backup. The tool even has three intensity levels, light, medium, and heavy depending on how closely your bosses are watching. Companies across China have been building AI digital twins of departed employees, feeding their old chat histories and documents into large models to produce clones that keep working after the humans are gone. One verified case is that an employee left, and their replacement was literally an AI trained on every message they ever sent. The anti-distill tool went viral on GitHub within hours of being posted, racking up stars faster than almost anything trending that week. The implications reach far beyond China's borders. Every knowledge worker on earth now faces a version of this question, when your company asks you to document your process, they may be building the tools to replace you.
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Evan Seech | Ads & Funnels
I just filmed a 66-minute Meta Ads masterclass that I could sell for $2,000. Today, I’m giving it away for free. Because most of you learning Meta ads are stitching together RANDOM YouTube clips from 2023 and blog posts that are completely outdated. So you launch campaigns with the wrong structure. Burn through their first $2-3K in a week… And end up with nothing to show for it. Then apparently it’s “Meta’s fault” The companies that 2-3x their business with Meta ads have an actual SYSTEM. So… I filmed a full step-by-step course covering everything you need to launch and scale Meta ads in 2026 (the exact strategies we're running right now across $7M/month in managed spend) Inside the course: (1) How to make cold audiences profitable (2) Campaign structure and launch strategy (3) Ad copywriting that converts w/ the frameworks we use daily (4) Funnel architecture from click to close (5) Backend systems that actually track what matters (6) How to identify and break through spend plateaus You can watch this and implement same day. Want me to send it over? Comment "COURSE" I'll DM it to you. (must be following for DM) PS Don't skip the backend section. That's where most people lose money and don't even know it.
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Alfie Carter
Alfie Carter@AlfieJCarter·
I put my entire Claude Code setup for GTM engineering into ONE Notion doc 10 modules. No fluff. - How to install Claude Code and run your first GTM session in under 10 minutes - How to build a CLAUDE. md that acts as your project brain and never loses context - How to install GTM skills that chain together and run autonomously - How to connect your full stack via MCP servers without writing custom wrappers - How to run parallel agents and subagents across GTM workflows simultaneously - How to manage context and token usage across long research sessions - How to choose between Sonnet, Opus, and Haiku based on the task - How to hook Claude Code into external triggers so workflows run without you - The exact GTM workflows to build first: signal detection, lead scoring, outreach sequencing - Full slash command reference for every repeatable GTM task This is the setup I would have KILLED for before spending months piecing it together from documentation, YouTube tutorials, and scattered GitHub threads. Like + comment "BIBLE" and I'll send it over (must be connected for priority access)
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Oliver James
Oliver James@Jay__Bernard·
@TomMariaRicci @emollick Yes that is interesting. I wonder if you could extend its ability by using larger models as data gathering agents without compromising any fundamental framing/victorian disposition that it might have.
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Tommaso Maria Ricci
Tommaso Maria Ricci@TomMariaRicci·
@emollick The behavioral authenticity is the real test here. Not whether it sounds Victorian, but whether it frames problems in ways that reflect Victorian epistemology. Constraining the corpus forces it to stop pattern-matching modern discourse. That's the genuinely interesting part.
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Ethan Mollick
Ethan Mollick@emollick·
Want to talk to the past? Here is an LLM "trained entirely from scratch on a corpus of over 28,000 Victorian-era British texts published between 1837 and 1899, drawn from a dataset made available by the British Library." Quite different from an LLM roleplaying a Victorian.
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Oliver James
Oliver James@Jay__Bernard·
Isn’t the whole selling point of AGI that it promises to replace the need for human labor, generally. Fundamentally rather than dynamically. Wouldn’t be fully realized until we have robots on the scene. But this would be unprecedented /incomparable. if we are on the path there, the lump-of-labor-fallacy argument will stop making sense at some point, will become gradually less cogent from here on?
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Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸
AI employment doomerism is rooted in the socialist fallacy of lump of labor. It is wrong now for the same reason it’s always been wrong. More people really should try to learn about this. The AI will teach you about it if you ask! (Hinton is a socialist. youtube.com/shorts/R-b8RR6…)
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Stephen Pimentel@StephenPiment

It’s easy to dunk on Geoffrey Hinton for his 2016 declaration that it was “completely obvious” that radiologists would have no jobs within 5 years, while in fact, the number of radiologists has grown. But this prediction was more than a simple mistake. It’s a synedoche for the entire discourse of AI timelines and doom.

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Marcin Krzyzanowski
Marcin Krzyzanowski@krzyzanowskim·
I reimplemented "claude" CLI with codex and gpt-5.4-high. It cost $1100 in tokens, and is 73% faster and 80% lower resident memory during sustained interactive use. It is very easy to reverse claude from npm distribution, then reimplement is 1:1. It is indistinguishable from the Anthropic version to the every header and analytics it send back github.com/krzyzanowskim/…
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Nikita Bier
Nikita Bier@nikitabier·
@Antunes1 We’ve love to hear your thoughts about living in Portugal. I’m sure you have plenty of great stories about your day to day experience there. Of course, you’re welcome to continue chiming in on America politics. We just won’t send money overseas for that content.
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Nikita Bier
Nikita Bier@nikitabier·
Starting Thursday, we'll be updating our revenue sharing incentives to better reward the content we want on X: We will be giving more weight to impressions from your home region—to encourage content that resonates with people in your country, in neighboring countries and people who speak your language. While we appreciate everyone's opinion on American politics, we hope this will disincentivize gaming the attention of US or Japanese accounts and instead, drive diverse conversations on the platform. We invite creators to start building an audience locally. X will be a much richer community when there's relevant posts for people in all parts of the world.
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Oliver James
Oliver James@Jay__Bernard·
@policytensor Seems like a good analysis. Does the U.S. - as currently conceived continue to exist in this new multipolar world? Probably not. Begins to look a little ridiculous. stakes are too high to leave the current administration in place then. let them take the loss.
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Policy Tensor
Policy Tensor@policytensor·
Seconded for the most part. Let me add a few notes. — There are three theories of air power. We know Douhetist terror bombing has never destroyed the will of the enemy to fight. Decapitation has now failed. As long as the US remains ‘up in the air’ there is only one path to avoiding strategic defeat: winning the interdiction war to disarm Iran. — The interdiction theory of victory is ‘analytically attractive’ because it empirically testable in real time. If Iranian strike tempo is dwindling to zero, the US is winning; otherwise it is losing outright. — The all-important interdiction war is going very poorly. I look at the attached map every day from ACLED, the gold standard of conflict data (acleddata.com/iran-crisis-li…). Iranian strike tempo shows no sign of dwindling. To the contrary, depletion of interceptor inventories and the use of heavier missiles has dramatically increased the effectiveness of Iranian missile strikes, as we are seeing in the strikes on Israel. — The Iranians’ interdiction/counterforce campaign has been surprisingly successful. At least 10 radars have been destroyed, partially blinding US forces and interceptor systems. US bases in the region have been largely evacuated, forcing the US to use European bases. — There have been some big kills. Two dozen heavy drones and a half a dozen manned aircraft have been lost to Iranian fire/accidents, not clear which, including an F-35. A mighty carrier group has been put out of business. — Iran enjoys escalation dominance. This was confirmed when Trump had to walk back his ultimatum. Iran has a very powerful threat at the top of the escalation ladder: the O&G infrastructure and water desalinization systems in the gulf are both under Iranian fire control. — Iran holds horizontal escalation options in reserve. The Houthis have their ‘fingers on the trigger.’ That is a deterrent to keep the Saudis out of the war, and may be used at any time to expand the war and impose greater costs on the West. — Iran retains a firm grip on the Hormuz weapon. No serious military option to retake Hormuz exists as long as the interdiction war is not won. No matter where you land the marines, they will be fully exposed to Iranian fire, including artillery fire. US force protection requirements, ultimately a function of casualty intolerance, mean that the Kharg idea etc are just not going to fly. — The United States is at a crossroads. Either it swallows this military humiliation and accepts a ceasefire largely on Iranian terms, or it must send in ground forces to in a bid to retake Hormuz and restore US military prestige. — If the US chooses a negotiated ceasefire, Iran will emerge as a regional hegemon with the Hormuz weapon firmly in its hands; and, having defeated the US in a high-intensity conventional war, as a great power in the international system. — If the US chooses to escalate to a ground war, the war will last for years. This is because both force protection and the overriding objective of fire suppression will drive ever greater commitment of ground forces. But the US cannot win the ground war under any circumstances because the division math (x.com/policytensor/s…) is even more forbidding than the drone math (x.com/policytensor/s…). This means that the choice facing the aggressor is between accepting strategic defeat now at limited costs, or later at far, far higher costs. — So the United States has already suffered a catastrophic military defeat. The multipolar world was a hypothesis until last month. Now it is a demonstrated military fact. It has obtained due to the diffusion of military technology (x.com/policytensor/s…). The US monopoly in precision-strike is now gone. Deterrence in Asia is now dead. This cannot but fail to have far-reaching geopolitical consequences, which I will lay out in detail in a forthcoming interview on @MultipolarPod with @admcollingwood later today.
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Rosemary Kelanic@RKelanic

Wars reveal information about countries' relative military capabilities and interests. That's one of the most important insights from the bargaining model of war. Iran believed before the war that fighting the U.S. would strengthen its bargaining position -- and Iran was correct. This war has revealed that Iran wouldn't topple after Khamenei's death, that Iran is highly resolved, and it can inflict damage across the Gulf at low cost, indefinitely. It revealed that Iran can gain massive leverage -- and perhaps even collect "tolls" -- from controlling shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. By contrast, the war has *hurt* U.S. & Israeli bargaining power compared to where it was before the Geneva talks in February. That means we'll get worse terms now than if we'd accepted Iran's proposal then. Why is the U.S./Israel position worse? Decapitation strikes failed to induce Iran to surrender (always an unlikely prospect), nullifying the U.S./Israeli theory of victory by day 3. No new plausible theory of victory has emerged, and it's doubtful one will. That hurts the U.S. position. Trump has proven highly sensitive to oil market swings, and even *removed sanctions* on Iranian oil. As @edwardfishman noted, Iran gained more sanctions relief from closing Hormuz than through any diplomatic means, including the JCPOA. The disruption to oil markets, and Trump's concern about them, also hurts the U.S. position. Now that the war has bogged down into an attrition battle, where Iran can impose costs with cheap means like drones and missiles and Israeli interceptors seem to be running low, the U.S. and Israel are on the losing end of the damage and casualties curve. Costs and casualties will get worse, not better, over time, and that further hurts U.S./Israeli bargaining leverage. Trump is now considering, frankly, foolhardy military gambits, potentially to seize Kharg, islands in Hormuz, or perhaps the highly enriched uranium trapped somewhere under rubble in Iran. These would be significant escalations putting U.S. troops on the ground. None are likely to end the war, and all would likely cause U.S. casualties. In the business lingo, Trump's BATNA (best alternative to a negotiated agreement) is way worse -- not least because of the shadow of Afghanistan. The U.S. forces being surged to the Middle East (2 MEUs plus some airborne units) are comparable to what George W. Bush used to invade Afghanistan in the autumn 2001. What started out as a limited mission to topple the Taliban and capture Osama bin Laden, who instead escaped through the Tora Bora mountains, evolved into a ground campaign that eventually ballooned to over 100k U.S. troops in 2011. The clear imperative here is for Trump to deescalate, credibility costs be damned. This war is existential for Iran but not for the United States, Iran will keep fighting with cheap means like drones, and it will eventually outlast the U.S. just like the Taliban did in Afghanistan. That, or Iran could fracture into chaos, creating refugee flows and breeding terrorism for decades to come. (Terrorism isn't an existential threat to the U.S., but we shouldn't be creating the conditions for it.) Trump doesn't like backing down, but that is what needs to happen here, and stat, before ill-fated escalation leads to more needless deaths. @defpriorities

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