Jim CastilloPhillips

A huge "standing wave" of rising air is becoming established over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, as the atmosphere responds to much warmer than average ocean waters there. This is a clear sign that El Niño is in charge and playing a key role in weather patterns.

Next week the Eastern US will endure a large and dangerous #heatwave. NOAA forecasting 53 Million people to be impacted by extreme heat on Wednesday alone, with heat index values up to 115° in purple! The heatwave will last the entire week from Monday into the following weekend!

France just hit 43.8°C (110.8°F) on Wednesday, making it the country's hottest day ever recorded. For perspective: that's hotter than Florida's all-time record high of 42.7°C (109°F) set in June 29, 1931. 🌡️🥵

Ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are already exceeding or approaching strong El Niño levels. All Niño regions are record warm except for Niño 1+2, which was warmer only at this time in 1983. These are huge anomalies for this time of year.

Good morning Northern California! Did you feel the magnitude 5.6 earthquake about 7 miles North of Redwood Valley at 8:10 am. The ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System was Activated. Learn more about this earthquake: earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ev… @Cal_OES @VisitMendocino @CAGeoSurvey @ListosCA @MendoSheriff 📷ShakeMap from this earthquake.

El Niño development is currently more advanced than at the same stage of previous super El Niño events in 2015, 1997 and 1982. But the oceans are much warmer now, and that means the atmospheric response to El Niño this year will be different from the past.

@ksby cool stuff

AURORA ALERT: a strong solar storm could bring the northern lights to much of the U.S. tomorrow night (Sunday, June 7). NOAA has issued a G3 ("strong") geomagnetic storm watch for June 8. If it pans out, the aurora may be visible across the northern states and into the central U.S., with a small chance even farther south during brief bursts called substorms. What's happening: on June 6, a large filament erupted from sunspot region AR 4461 alongside an M1.8 solar flare. The flare was modest, but the eruption launched a fast, full-halo CME (a giant cloud of solar plasma) with a clear Earth-directed component, modeled at over 1,000 km/s. NOAA's model has it arriving around 11 UT on June 8 (7 AM Eastern, 6 AM Central, 4 AM Pacific on Monday morning), while NASA's runs lean earlier, closer to Sunday evening for North America. All models carry about +/- 7 hours of uncertainty, so the realistic window runs from Sunday evening through Monday midday. For U.S. chasers, that makes Sunday night into early Monday the night to watch. If the CME shows up late, Monday night becomes the backup, and NOAA already has a G2 watch posted for June 9. How strong: NOAA's official forecast is G3 (Kp 7), but the bulk of this CME is heading south and east of the Sun-Earth line, so a lot depends on whether we catch the core or a flank. It could land higher or lower. Don't put too much stock in pinpoint Kp numbers or app forecasts before the storm arrives. Space weather is hard to predict and the storm will evolve on its own. Treat forecasts as a sign activity may be enhanced, not a guarantee. How to catch it: get away from city lights, find a clear view to the north, and look during the darkest part of the night. Watch for substorms, when the sky can go from dark to full of color in just a few minutes. Unlike last week's storm, the moon is on our side this time: it's half-lit and doesn't rise until roughly 1-2 AM local, so the evening and midnight hours are properly dark. Clouds are the bigger wildcard, so check your local forecast before you drive anywhere. The map shows roughly how far south the aurora might reach Sunday night. Forecasts like this don't always come true, so keep your hopes up but your expectations realistic. I'll send a full aurora alert email to my subscribers tomorrow (Sunday) morning with all the details, free of charge. Sign up here: go.theauroraguy.com/alerts A few more free resources to help you chase: Live aurora webcams (100+): theauroraguy.com/pages/webcams What is a substorm? theauroraguy.com/blogs/blog/a-p… Resources you may look at but are actually NOT helpful for chasing in real-time: theauroraguy.com/blogs/blog/top… Support these free alerts on Patreon: patreon.com/TheAuroraGuy

A remarkable 3.5˚C rise in central equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures is possible by November, shows new ECMWF, which would mark the strongest El Niño on record. Possible strength scenarios range from +2.8˚C to +4.3˚C, with sweeping consequences on global climate into 2027.

The new ENSO Euro Plumes were released this morning. Hard to believe, but they are even stronger! Some members are even above 4°C! Insane. I thought it may be helpful to add the color bars to distinguish between strong vs historic events. Truth be told historic starts below +3C but for consistency I started it at 3. This will be followed by the Relative Nino plots which are honestly only a smidge below the traditional Nino index. 🧵 1/2

2026 and 1997 are El Niño twins. But they didn't always look alike. Subsurface ocean warmth developed faster in 1997, but 2026 caught up following a record-breaking Kelvin wave that formed in April. A new westerly wind burst into June will keep these two years neck and neck.

Enjoying a nice Memorial Holiday across the Mountains and Deserts of Southern California. The onshore flow has brought a return of the stubborn May grey over our coastal and valley areas with patchy drizzle. Expect more of the same through this week as another trough of low pressure slides inland to our north. The marine layer will deepen enough for areas of light rain and drizzle, mainly west of the mountains. As the trough axis swings through the area on Wednesday into Thursday, we could see moisture spill into the mountains with some light rain or snow possible as temperatures drop 10-15 degrees below normal. Accumulations, if any, look light. Thereafter, high pressure will build over the region Friday, with a modest warm-up expected through next weekend as temperatures climb 10-15 degrees above normal. Additionally, we're looking at an early monsoon-type setup over the Desert Southwest, driven by low pressure off the West Coast drawing moisture up from Mexico. This has generated thunderstorm activity over Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. Expect this to continue in the coming weeks, with signs that moisture may migrate a little further west in early June. No thunderstorms are officially in our forecast yet, but bears watching. Special thanks to all our vets who gave their lives so we may enjoy our freedom, happy Memorial Day! 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 #cawx #bigbearwx #monsoon

A strong and extensive westerly wind burst is forecast near the equator over the coming weeks. It should amplify the warming effects of a Kelvin wave crossing the basin, push warm surface waters eastward into the Niño 3.4 region and elevate chances for a super El Niño this year.

@KPRC2Andy heads up @WeatherProf has a preview for you. Brutal rains are coming #Houston

The strongest El Niño in 150 years? Yes, it’s legitimately possible. Not hype. In fact, the “median” forecast for December of all of our computer models combined is slightly “above” the biggest event we know of back in 1877. (+2.9 vs +2.7 using ONI) While this peak intensity may or may not occur, all signs are pointing to a Super El Niño - a “natural” oscillation. That will expel stored heat from the deep Tropical Pacific - on top of significant longterm warming - heating Earth to record levels not measured before in late 2026-2027, powering extreme heat waves, droughts, and rain storms… while also suppressing Atlantic hurricane season 1/ #ElNino #extremeweather #science

California is heading into its fourth straight spring of strong water storage, with most of the state’s major reservoirs nearly full, despite one of the worst snowpacks in recorded history. State reservoirs are at 118% of the historical average for late April. Four consecutive years of strong storage is a remarkable streak for a state that has spent much of the 21st century going from one record-breaking drought to the next.

Mahalo to Hāna resident Tony de Jetley for sending these images of the conditions along Hāna Highway today. He says driving conditions are still dangerous.

Storm drain turned into geyser 🌊🌧️ Heavy rain in Honolulu overwhelmed the system, sending water shooting out of drains as flooding continued during a second Kona Low in two weeks.

On Tuesday, March 24, 2026, at 12:09 PM, I would like to reiterate that the most recent sea surface temperatures from California to the Philippines are showing a consistent warming increase. The significant fluctuations in temperature are concerning, especially considering the potential consequences of prolonged periods of heavy rainfall, such as the scenario where areas like the Hawaiian islands receive an entire year's worth of rain in just two weeks. The ongoing trend of extreme weather conditions, including record-breaking rainfall and heatwaves, is becoming more frequent. A looming El Niño California may be in the crosshairs of this situation as well due to an possible active hurricane season in the eastern Pacific. If you notice off the coast from Santa Barbara to Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, it is exceptionally warmer than average, which can be enough juice to fuel dying, tropical systems, moving northward and influencing the monsoon season as well. #CAwx #WarmingofthePacific

All I can say is wow. You've seen a lot of these type plots for individual cities. But this is different. It's the whole Southwest US and the anomaly is FARRRRR out of the ballpark. I truly can not recall an anomaly so large in my career. Look closely at the 2026 peak (red) and all the other peaks (black lines) above the mean. The next closest peak heat event looks to be less than 1/2 the size of this one. It makes sense that the departure would be even further outside the normal window than for an individual city because it encompasses a much larger area ALL with extremely deviant heat. If you look closely you will see the peak of the heatwave is ~equal to the typical summer peak temperatures.