Joe Blow

Oceanographic Museum of Monaco

Ribeye inflation index has a big print. New price $37.99/lb. 17% inflation annualized from October. 18.5% annualized since last June. 90% cumulative since 2020. 11.0% compounded annually over 6+ years. Same ribeye, same store. High rates? Don't care. Bitcoin is the only way out!

While Bitcoin gets a lot of attention, it hasn’t played the safe-haven role many expected. In my view, there are a few reasons why. First, Bitcoin lacks privacy. Transactions can be monitored and potentially controlled, which is why central banks aren’t looking to hold it. Second, it also has a high correlation with tech stocks. When investors get squeezed in other areas of their portfolio, they sell their Bitcoin to cover it. Third, it’s a relatively small and controllable market, whereas gold stands alone. There is only one gold. Ultimately, gold is more widely held, deeply established, and still plays a central role in the global system.

Strategy bears + Saylor haters found their new bedtime story: “They’ll HAVE TO sell Bitcoin to pay the dividends.” (ignoring MSTR sales, cash reserve, and BTC derivatives also mentioned on the earnings call, of course) They won't NEED to sell Bitcoin, but even if they do... great. Stop being emotional and RUN THE MODEL. Does the math work, or do your emotions get in the way of you being OBJECTIVE? 🤔 In the Sell BTC to Fund Dividends scenario, Strategy can sell some BTC over 3 years and still end with: 1.06M BTC holdings 276K sats per share 1.41x Bitcoin Per Share increase 12.2% annual BTC yield 3.2x BTC rating 1.5 years of USD reserve That is the part they don’t want to touch. The bear thesis assumes selling BTC equals collapse. The math says Strategy can shave some orange off the top, feed the dividend machine, and still grow the Bitcoin NAV like a radioactive Godzilla balance sheet stomping through the fiat suburbs. They think they found the cancer. They found a spreadsheet where the patient is bench pressing the hospital. Strategy is a capital markets machine. The dividend is an obligation. The machine is the asset. And if the machine can fund the obligation while still growing BTC per share, the bears are basically screaming at a refinery for producing too much oil. This is why MSTR breaks people’s brains. They keep analyzing it like a static pile of coins. It behaves like a corporate Bitcoin engine with access to Wall Street’s entire plumbing system. The bears wanted a liquidation story. They got a company accumulating Bitcoin 25x faster than their annual dividend obligation.

The people on this app criticizing the idea of Strategy selling Bitcoin to cover STRC dividends are just so unbelievably stupid and misinformed, because they literally don't want to take the time to run the math. Selling a little bit of Bitcoin while remaining a net buyer is an incredible idea, because it takes away the already idiotic ponzi attack vector. STRC investors will continue buying STRC because they love the risk profile of a $66.4 billion BTC hoard appreciating at 20-30% per year, making their 11.5% yields more than economically feasible. Just do the basic math. They have $66.4 billion in BTC. $1.5 billion in annual dividend obligations. $1.5 billion divided by 12 months is $125 million per month in dividends. $66.4 billion divided by $125 million is 531.2. YES. They have 531.2 MONTHS of dividend coverage in Bitcoin. Would you sell 0.18% of your Bitcoin hoard to issue STRC shares at a rate that is currently buying you over 50,000 Bitcoin per month? Gee, selling 0.18% of my Bitcoin to increase my Bitcoin stack size by 6.5% per month! How is this even hard for some of you people? Long Bitcoin / long Saylor / long Strategy. Short the idiotic crypto bros on X whining about this.