Tom Lee maintains his S&P 500 target of 7,700 and remains bullish despite elevated macro uncertainty.
He argues markets bottom early in conflicts as fear gets priced in quickly and positioning is already de-risked before clarity arrives.
@LoveMy7Wood I doubt it
Plenty of well run stores have shut down and or left Canada:
Nordstrom, Bed Bath and Beyond, The Body Shop, Target, Pier One Imports, Disney Stores, Sears...
It's a structural problem.
I’m not a department store kind of guy but to escape the 108 degree weather we went to the mall in Scottsdale today and I have to say Dillards was extremely well merchandised and the store layout was very appealing, unlike the cramped and awful racks and merchandising that defined The Bay in Canada. If it had been run like Dillard’s maybe it would still be alive today. And, yes I did buy something there. @Dillards
@GuyTalksFinance As soon as you say, " every single time" you are definitionally wrong.
The risk in the index has increased substantially over the last number of years due to the concentration of the biggest few companies.
Measure return vs risk taken (Sharpe, Sortino)_
@CallMeKulubya It is a stock and flow problem. If any part of the supply side (and 20% is a huge part ) gets impaired, the rest can't make up for that
It would work on the long run, but not at prices that you would like.
If Iran has the strait of Hormuz claimed to control about 20% of the World’s Oil and Gas , why don’t the world concentrate on the 80% they have no control about.
I really don’t understand why the focus is on the 20% . WHO controls the 80%?
Natural gas prices have barely moved in the US compared to Europe and Asia, where they're hitting the stratosphere.
This is why we Drilled baby Drilled
@profstonge Drill Baby Drill? Rig count in the US has dropped 16% since Trump took over. In fact it also dropped 16% each of the previous two years.
There is no such thing as drill baby drill.
It's more like import baby import from Canada...
@GuyTalksFinance They can and regularly do get close to it with much less risk.
The idea that the index is the best portdolio is nonsense. It's dominated by a small handful of stocks.
@dantypo Business that benefitted from tariffs, were not competitive to begin with and require protectionism.
Tariffs benefitted your employees? Perhaps it has protected thier jobs, but it has increased prices for them.
Just as many businesses, if not more have been hurt by tariffs.
If I added up the things I agree with Trump on, he might be hitting .300.
The sad thing is that’s a higher batting average than any President in my voting lifetime.
The problem with so many people (especially those recently introduced to politics) is that they’re expecting someone who bats 1.000.
That’s never going to be the case.
So I ask myself, “am I happy that the border is closed, that til now his foreign entanglements have been quick and decisive, and has my business and my employees benefited from his economic policies?”
The answer is yes.
I hope Iran is decided in 4-5 weeks, I hope GDP grows, and I hope (tho doubt) he curtails spending in the next 3 years.
But I do know that Kamala would have done none of the former or latter.
So no. I don’t regret my vote.
@DrDavidKass The "net exporter of oil" nonsense...
While it's true that the US exports more oil than it imports, it's also true that the US consumes much more oil than it produces.
The mix of what is imported vs what is exported maximizes profits. Any change to that mix increases prices.
Ed Yardeni on CNBC: The U.S. economy is resilient and he maintains his target of 7700 for the S&P 500 by yearend (+15% from current level). "This too shall pass." If we have a market correction of 10-15%, he would buy the dip. The U.S. is a net exporter of oil unlike the 1970's. Although he has raised the odds of a recession from 20% to 35% in recent days after the war began, he remains optimistic. The primary risk we face is geopolitical risk. Will China invade Taiwan? But the U.S. can seize Kharg Island where China gets much of its oil. Will Russia expand its war with Ukraine in Europe? The amount of world oil being held up in the Strait of Hormuz is closer to 10% than 20% since some Iranian tankers are getting through with oil to China. It is in the world's interest to have a free flow of oil.
THIS IS ABSOLUTE CINEMA 🍿🔥
Reporter — What would you say to President Trump?
US citizen — You are a worthless pile of sh*t 😭
Reporter — Have you ever voted for him?
US citizen — 3 times, my bad. Apparently I am an idiot 😭😭😭
a barrel of oil can provide as much electricity as a 400W solar panel does annually.
a barrel of oil runs $92 and comes with a few minor logistical complications.
this year the solar panel should run less than $90; you can order online, ships in a week.
@kpac_15 What about the millions of barrels individual oil companies in 🇨🇦 have as inventory, that has not been sold yet. This is public info. There is (was) 25 mil barrels in inventory that can b released.
A conversation b/t the oil corps and the gov't, and those inventories r released
CBC reporter- 🇨🇦 is releasing more than 23 million barrels of oil
Poilievre- you sure about that?
CBC reporter- I’m just asking this question on behalf of this network
Are you F’in shitting me?
Pissing on our heads and telling us it’s raining. 🤬🤦🏻♂️
x.com/junonewscom/st…
@AlexEpstein Wind is not great for Base load, however, with improving utility scale batteries that is changing.
It is a perfect compliment for traditional generation and to combine with nuclear.
If you treat intermittent solar and wind as if they were reliable generators, they can appear cheaper than natural gas.
If you recognize that intermittent solar and wind are fuel savers for reliable generators, not themselves reliable generators, it becomes clear that trying to power a modern society with them is prohibitively expensive.
It would require so much expensive storage and so much overbuilding that the cost would be on the order of 10 to 20x higher than natural gas!
@LanceRoberts You are still reliant on foreign oil....
US Daily Consumption 21 million barrels
US Daily Production 14 million barrels...
You buy 1.7 billion barrels per year from Canada...
229 million from Mexico
123 million from Saudi Arabia...
I don’t understand why gasoline is priced at Strait of Hermoz blockade prices $1.90/liter when Canada produces enough oil to supply Canada. Why are we on World Prices? Why can’t oil/gasoline be priced at one fixed Canadian price? This is the most expensive gas has ever been in 🇨🇦
@GeraldoRivera Thinking that the 80% can "crank up production" to replace the 20% without massive price increases is delusional.
US rig count has fallen 16% per year for the last three years.
Thinking that you can just find an additional 20 million barrels/day? LOL Say hello to $200 oil.
20% of the world’s oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. That means 80% does not. Given the massive flexibility of most oil producers, there is no question the 80% can crank up production if asked firmly by President Trump.
@mitchellvii The Mid-terms?
The War in Iran, never ends, there is no successful regime change.
Trump screws up the USMCA and loses some access to or significantly tariffs Canadian electricity, steel, aluminum, copper and potash.
Costs soar and the economy goes into recession.
Mid-terms blown
So let's fast forward to 2 months from now.
The war in Iran is long over and that terrorist nation is no longer a threat. Hamas and Hezbollah have been wiped out.
Gas prices have fallen below $2 a gallon. Stocks are back to their all-time highs.
With the Iranian threat gone in the Middle East investment pours into the area. Rebuilding starts in Gaza.
The US economy takes off as all of that newly onshored business starts hiring.
And once again Democrats have nothing.
I'm feeling pretty good about the midterms.
Thoughts? ⬇️