Bill McGill

1.9K posts

Bill McGill

Bill McGill

@JustBankStocks

Liquidity taking reply guy May have long or short exposure on securities mentioned - may even have exposure opposite implied by my idiotic comments.

Same bubble you're in Katılım Ağustos 2023
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Bill McGill
Bill McGill@JustBankStocks·
Plus, characteristically for a Nasdaq Baltic issuer, $CPA1T has excellent English-language investor materials and timely reporting and disclosures. Coop Pank even provides unaudited, monthly operating results reporting. While there are a lot more great little companies at compelling prices on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, the quality of investor reporting for all but the largest of them is far inferior to what you will find on Tallinn Stock Exchange. And let's not even discuss the abomination of issuer reporting you will find on Czech, Austrian and Hungarian markets.
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Bill McGill
Bill McGill@JustBankStocks·
@Schornack @SEC_digger Because a large percentage of them will show they haven't earned their cost of capital and, therefore, independence.
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Joe G.
Joe G.@SEC_digger·
The biggest threat to community banks is peer group analysis.
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Bill McGill
Bill McGill@JustBankStocks·
@bank_reg In what way is this exciting or surprising? This is a pure dog bites man, as previously reported, story.
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Bank Reg Blog
Bank Reg Blog@bank_reg·
That last bullet above re: "active escrow deposits" probably deserves your attention -- given the way the FDIC is defining this here, it's more exciting than it might first sound
Bank Reg Blog tweet media
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Bank Reg Blog
Bank Reg Blog@bank_reg·
"This analysis provides unprecedented detail and insight into the largest and most severe bank runs that led to the second-, third-, and fourth-largest bank failures in U.S. history"
FDIC@FDICgov

Today, we released a staff study of deposit flows at three banks that failed in 2023. #FDICResearch used detailed data to analyze depositor behavior in the weeks surrounding the failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank. fdic.gov/news/press-rel…

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Bill McGill
Bill McGill@JustBankStocks·
I don’t know, man. I’ve met Brenda and she’s not all that observant and the things she does observe don’t seem to factor into even community bank relationship-based loans. I know Joe G. can show you a pretty chart demonstrating that $1B asset banks have lower NPL and charge off rates than $50B asset banks, even when comparing like to like loan categories (it’s not just % of resi loans to total loans driving the lower loss rate), but I don’t think Brenda has much to do with it. The CRE LTVs do. The reach for NIM on inventory financing does. In fact, when banks do fail, the FDIC loss rate on small community banks is absolutely breathtaking compared to FDIC loss rates on larger community and regional banks. And those stunning small bank losses are, in fact, very much due to “relationship” lending.
Dirt Cheap Banks@dirtcheapbanks

Brenda has worked at this bank for twenty-seven years and she knows which farmers are three months behind on their equipment loans but still good for it and which ones are current on paper but won't make it through the winter, and she knows that Mr. Henderson's weekly deposit should be exactly $2,847.12 every Friday unless he sold extra calves that week, and she knows that the Peterson kid's checking account went negative three times last month which means he's probably using again, and she knows that the widow Morrison always withdraws exactly $300 every second Tuesday for her grandson's piano lessons even though the grandson is now thirty-four and lives in Denver, and this knowledge lives in her head and nowhere else because there is no field in the core banking system for "Morrison withdraws $300 for dead grandson" or "Henderson's deposit timing correlates with cattle market" or "Peterson family addiction patterns affect loan performance," and when the acquisition closes next month Brenda will train her replacement for exactly forty-seven minutes on how to process a wire transfer and how to order new checks and how to run the daily cash report, but there is no training manual for twenty-seven years of watching the same families grow up and fail and get married and default and die, and the acquiring bank's efficiency experts have calculated that eliminating her $47,000 salary will improve the cost-to-income ratio by thirty-six basis points, and they are correct about the math and completely wrong about everything else, and Brenda will clean out her desk on a Friday afternoon and take her coffee mug and her photos of her grandkids and walk out of the building where she has spent more waking hours than her own home, and the bank will continue operating and the customers will learn to use the ATM and the drive-through and the mobile app, and the new systems will process transactions faster and more efficiently than Brenda ever could, but no computer will ever know that Henderson's late payment means he's probably getting divorced again, and no algorithm will recognize the early warning signs in the Peterson kid's account activity, and no spreadsheet will track the subtle rhythms of a rural economy that Brenda could read like sheet music, and six months later when three farmers default in the same week and the loan committee wonders how they missed the warning signs, there will be no one left to explain that the signs were all there if you knew how to look, but the person who knew how to look got eliminated for efficiency.

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Bill McGill
Bill McGill@JustBankStocks·
"Total assets decreased $27.7 million, or 3.1%, to $877.2 million at March 31, 2026 from $904.9 million at December 31, 2025, due largely to a decrease in cash and cash equivalents, securities and loans." So assets decreased due to all of the assets decreasing. Thanks for the insight, chief.
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Bill McGill retweetledi
Chuckle Fox
Chuckle Fox@jimdelisle·
This is just getting silly now. Looking at the most recent TWO/CCM amendment, TWO owes CCM about 75c/sh (25c CCM has paid UWM already and another 50c for the amended termination fee) if it goes with UWM. So if Bill hits Matt’s 12.00 bid - using first names highlighting how personal this is for the parties involved - he actually ends up with 11.25 vs CCM’s current 11.30. That’s not going to happen. This bid is just meant to show Bill up and POSSIBLY make CCM pay more, which they be fools to even consider.
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Bill McGill
Bill McGill@JustBankStocks·
@Catahoula_Value @PhilTimyan @TimyanBankAlert That's not the case. They sold their servicing business and their mortgage warehouse business, but they still operate a full service retail banking business in Michigan, including mortgage origination.
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Catahoula
Catahoula@Catahoula_Value·
@PhilTimyan @TimyanBankAlert You know, Phil, that caught my eye too. As a matter of fact, I was just getting ready to reply and ask your conjecture about the regional bank mentioned (where they bought a put)?
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Bill McGill
Bill McGill@JustBankStocks·
This comment is exactly right, but it also replaces a bank that made loans on more idiosyncratic underwriting standards with a bank that underwrites loans with something closer to common regional bank standards. That’s not necessarily good or bad, but we are getting more homogenous underwriting of loans.
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Dr. Hugh Akston
Dr. Hugh Akston@Akston_Capital·
@dirtcheapbanks Cmon man - why would a bank spend a bunch of money just to shut down what they acquire? The actual result of M&A is that the town gets a bigger, better bank that is more resilient, can make larger loans and has better technology.
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Dirt Cheap Banks
Dirt Cheap Banks@dirtcheapbanks·
Community banks are the last place in America where a man in a short-sleeve dress shirt can approve a $400,000 loan based on the fact that he went to high school with your dad. There are 4,100 of them left. There were 14,000 in 1984. Every time one gets acquired, a teller named Brenda learns a new software system and a small town loses the only institution that would lend against a combine. The acquirer always says nothing will change. Brenda is gone in eighteen months. The lobby cookies go next. Then the branch closes. Then the building becomes a vape shop. This is not a financial trend. This is the slow administrative murder of the only version of capitalism that ever knew your name.
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Bill McGill
Bill McGill@JustBankStocks·
@siyul @shortbus_ace @blondesnmoney That’s not true. They carry the advisory accounts and clear transactions on an omnibus basis with RBC Cap Markets. Most of their assets are in the broker-dealer.
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Bill McGill
Bill McGill@JustBankStocks·
@shortbus_ace @siyul @blondesnmoney Another concern with $WLTH is that they are not a particularly efficient operator on the brokerage side and make almost all their money on the advisory fee side, but that's the side where it is easiest for competitors to roll out free, automated services to attract assets.
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Sammy 'Ace' Rothstein
Sammy 'Ace' Rothstein@shortbus_ace·
Isn’t the problem that the inexperienced investors are more gamblers than investors and are not interested in their products? The “better products” are better to those who are playing a different game. Think the right comps for $WLTH are shops like $RJF and $SF which trade at 12x EPS, not 19x
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CandiceMarkAngel
CandiceMarkAngel@CDMarkAngel·
@blondesnmoney it's a silly large number but citadel etc squeezes most retail 75bps to trade equities. at least Schwab are upfront.
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Rektavius Maximus
Rektavius Maximus@when_rekt·
@dirtcheapbanks How many boat loans does that bank underwrite then in comparison with other credit offerings, lmao
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Dirt Cheap Banks
Dirt Cheap Banks@dirtcheapbanks·
I spent my Saturday morning reading a 127-page proxy statement for a $15M market cap bank in rural Iowa. The CEO made $180k last year and owns a boat dealership on the side. This is what peak due diligence looks like.
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