@APompliano @porterstansb Every cycle creates a new class of people
who mistake conviction for a valuation framework
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Knox
167 posts
Knox
@Knoxxbtx
fake hedge fund manager. studying liquidity, market structure & collective hallucinations
Katılım Kasım 2022
90 Takip Edilen71 Takipçiler
"My bitcoin model has the average price of bitcoin today at $134,000. The mispricing today in bitcoin is as large as I have ever seen before."
- @porterstansb
Anthony Pompliano 🌪@APompliano
I spoke with @porterstansb to discuss why he believes America is heading toward a great financial reset by 2029. He believes the combination of a collapse in Social Security, the currency debasement, and a breakdown of the social compact will lead to destruction of investor portfolios. Porter describes how to build a portfolio to survive what's coming, including gold, bitcoin, timber, and his Honeycomb Portfolio strategy. YouTube: youtu.be/dwIUft5OIuQ?si… Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/6gUEG5… Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the… TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 - Intro 1:00 - What is the Fourth Turning? 3:21 - Why 2029 is the year of the great reset 9:57 - How past monetary resets happened (1933 & 1971) 12:58 - Both parties grow government — there's no off ramp 21:52 - Currency debasement & the real wage collapse 35:50 - Is there any way to stop the crisis? 42:53 - Warren Buffett's 20 years of mistakes 51:43 - The permanent portfolio explained 1:01:28 - How to price gold vs. bitcoin 1:06:39 - Bitcoin's biggest mispricing in a decade 1:10:16 - Why Timber belongs in your portfolio 1:13:42 - Honeycomb portfolio strategy & closing
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@aleabitoreddit “price moved before I understood the thesis”
has become the modern definition of a meme stock
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Bro media… how is $XFAB a meme stock?
Can you not repeat the same mistake with $RPI this time?
They’re literally getting CHIPS ACT funding from the EU because of how critical they are.
And have $NVDA / $NOK evaluating their SiPH side of things, while they traded at a low ~1.28 P/B.
This just reminded me of $SOI low p/b but high growth verticals out of legacy segment drag.
$XFAB was literally mentioned for CHIPS ACT 2 next week in the blueprints… Which focuses around photonics.
The main revenue ramp was around power semis with $NVDA pushing 800 vdc.
So $NVTS, $POWI, $WOLF and everyone have been taking off recently.
Markets just missed $XFAB, because they’re a lesser known foundry in power semis…But US Dpt. Of commerce pointed them out as the only high volume SiC foundry in the US 2Y ago.
I just happened to point out the connections.
Just because you don’t understand something, don’t just go call it a “meme stock” with price detached from fundamentals.
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@cryptocupra In every cycle, sooner or later there comes a phase when people start talking like televangelists
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$BTC go for the longs round 2 😅 Potential double bottom if it bounces. Just a small sweep? US Stocks flat
85,309 traders were liquidated, the total liquidations comes in at $331.72 million
4,220,000,000 USD in shorts at 78.4K Bitcoin
2,000,000,000 USD in longs at 73.6K
Chop chop period as predicted
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@natolambert Eventually AI assistants stop being “tools”
and start becoming persistent digital coworkers that remember every mistake you make
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The most likely way continual learning manifests in the coming few years is through products used directly for knowledge work.
Sort of how cursor can continually train their models with real-world data and RL, Claude, Copilot, and co will see if they can for knowledge work.
I was chatting with Ronak a few weeks ago when this was crystalizing for me, so it's fun to see a startup in that area.
Ronak Malde@rronak_
Today, @MichaelElabd, @QuantumArjun, and I are excited to announce Trajectory. We are a research lab and product company building the platform for Continual Learning. Our platform unlocks the signal already sitting in product usage, so companies can continuously post-train large-scale agentic models that outperform the frontier. @trajectorylabs We’ve raised $15M from @Conviction, @BessemerVP, @radicalvcfund, @jeffdean, @drfeifei and more. We’re partnering with some of the best AI-native companies: @ClayRunHQ @Harvey, @DecagonAI, @mercor_ai, @RogoAI to power their agentic systems, some of which we are already in production with. We’ve brought together a world class research team from DeepMind, OpenAI, Apple, Meta Superintelligence, Amazon AGI, Scale AI, and an elite product team from Stripe and Figma. AI will never again start on day one. Every correction, every retry, every edit will make products smarter. This is Continual Learning.
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@CryptoTice_ People mock bitcoin maximalism,
until their local currency starts roleplaying as a melting ice cube
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TURKEY JUST MADE THE MOST BULLISH BITCOIN ARGUMENT IN HISTORY.
And they didn't even mean to.
The Turkish Lira lost 99.99% of its value.
Not 10%. Not 50%. Not 90%.
99.99%.
$13,980,000,000 in T-bills sold to defend it.
It's not working.
This is what happens when governments print money to solve problems caused by printing money.
Turkey is not an exception.
Turkey is a warning.
Every fiat currency in history has trended toward zero.
There are only 21,000,000 Bitcoin.
No government can print more.
No central bank can devalue it.
No T-bill sale can defend against it.
The Lira chart is the most bullish Bitcoin chart ever made.
And Turkey made it for us.
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@DrProfitCrypto CT traders after predicting both directions for 18 months straight:
‘eventually one of these timelines has to print'
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At 120k I said 60k is coming
At 60k I said 79-85k is coming
At 79-85k I said 60k is coming
Winning big is the only Option!
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@cryptofergani Governments really looked at every possible human activity and said:
"yeah we can tax that too"
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Income is taxed.
Spending is taxed.
Property is taxed.
Investments are taxed.
Serious question… how tf are we supposed to make money??
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@TedPillows Geopolitical risk premium disappears very fast once global trade starts getting threatened for real
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iranian state media released early details of a proposed US-Iran peace agreement:
• US forces would pull back from areas near Iran
• The US Navy would end its Strait of Hormuz blockade
• Iran says commercial shipping through the strait will return to pre-war levels within a month
• Military vessels are reportedly excluded from the draft
• Iran and Oman would oversee ship traffic in the strait
• If finalized within 60 days, the deal could become a binding UN Security Council resolution
What do you think?
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@czbinanceprd People don’t actually want volatility.
They want the green candle after someone else survived the volatility
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people love chasing green candles.
very few stay long enough to catch them first.
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@AlgodTrading Previous bear markets at least gave you panic
this one gave you boredom, underperformance and existential damage
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@DudeWhoInvests The market can stay irrational longer than people can survive family dinner conversations
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People in cash when someone mentions how their portfolio is doing at family dinner
Kalshi@Kalshi
JUST IN: S&P 500 futures hit new all-time high
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@CryptoTice_ Tradfi spent decades turning assets into collateral.
Crypto is just rebuilding the same machine with faster liquidations
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BREAKING:
Brian Armstrong just changed how crypto lending works.
Instant USDC borrowing. Right now.
Hold crypto. Borrow instantly. Never sell.
No credit check. No bank approval. No waiting.
Right as the CLARITY Act clears Washington.
The old system made you liquidate assets to access cash.
The new system lets you keep everything.
This is not a feature update.
This is a bank replacement.
And it launched at the most important moment in crypto history.
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@AshCrypto Market spent 2 weeks pricing in apocalypse
now oil dumps 10% because both sides suddenly remembered global trade exists
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BREAKING: Iranian state media reveals first details of a proposed US-Iran peace deal.
Key points of the draft agreement:
-Iran says commercial ship traffic will return to pre-war levels within 1 month
-Military vessels are excluded from the draft
-Iran and Oman would jointly manage Hormuz ship routing
-US forces would withdraw from areas near Iran
-US Navy blockade in the Strait of Hormuz would be lifted
OIL dropped to $88/barrel on this news
We are now waiting for the US response on this matter.
Ash Crypto@AshCrypto
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 US stock futures just hit a new ALL-TIME HIGH in hopes of a US-Iran deal. Nasdaq futures is up 0.66% on the day, hitting 30,297. Russell 2000 futures is up 0.37% on the day, hitting 2,949.
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🚨 S&P 500 SETTING UP ONE LAST TRAP BEFORE DUMP
Just look at what’s happening right now:
- Smart money is slowly exiting index
- Asset keeps pushing higher on low volume
- Retail is getting more convinced that “up only” is back
Index has clearly started slowing down after ~56 days of aggressive upside
Sideways action + weakening momentum = classic distribution before a major move lower
We’ve already seen similar setups in 2022 and 2024 - don’t think 2026 will be any different...
This is phase where large players begin dumping index for cash liquidity
Take profits before it’s too late - turn on notifs, I’ll update
Kalshi@Kalshi
JUST IN: S&P 500 hits all-time high of 7,520
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@DeFiTracer BREAKING:
geopolitical accounts have now posted roughly 14 “final agreements” and 9 “inevitable wars” in the last 48 hours alone
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🚨 BREAKING:
🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN'S STATE TV SAYS IRAN HAS OBTAINED AN UNOFFICIAL AGREEMENT WITH THE U.S.
THIS DEAL INCLUDES REOPENING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND WITHDRAWAL OF U.S. FORCES
SOURCES REPORT THAT THE STRAIT WILL BE OPEN FOR COMMERCIAL SHIPS IN 30 DAYS
PRAYING FOR AN OFFICIAL AGREEMENT!!
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@leshka_eth “13M users before token launch”
crypto has fully mastered the art of turning app installs into implied trillion dollar narratives
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The TON ecosystem is growing faster than any other blockchain right now
DROPEE is the most hyped new project here, launching today
If you watched Lovable go from $0 to $200M ARR in 8 months and missed it, this might look familiar
Valuation from $1.8B to $6.6B in 5 months
This was the fastest-growing software company in history
Lovable built that for the open web, @dropee_app is doing the same thing native to Telegram with 950M users and starts at a $40M FDV
They already have 13M users before a single token hit any exchange
Dropee@dropee_app
With less than 24h ahead of the $DROPEE TGE, let’s recap on what we achieved so far, and what’s coming in the near future. $2.5M revenue with 8 Apps, thousands of Apps coming with Dropee Create. The state of play 🧵
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