horosho

It really do be like that.

@AlphaPicks Long gold, rotate from us to international stocks , short USD, long copper look like the most obvious and consensus ones

What’s the most consensus market trade for 2026? (bonus points for fadeable ideas, will give a free year sub to my favourite)

🚨 BREAKING: FULL EPSTEIN FILES RELEASED

@MilkRoad @MilkRoadMacro So you post a chart with m2 yoy trending lower and link it with TGA? makes completely no sense at all

Global liquidity is trending downward. The main reason is the TGA refill (check out the post below by @MilkRoadMacro). The target level was initially $850bn but because of the government shutdown, it's gone all the way up to $1tn... Dragging liquidity down with it. But this is long term bullish: When the government reopens, they will spend this extra balance which would expand liquidity.

@ColinTCrypto @MilkRoadMacro No, it doesn’t mean so

@MilkRoadMacro Does stopping QT mean the starting of QE though?

Here's a quick explainer on QE & QT: Quantitative Easing (QE) = Fed expanding their balance sheet by bonding bonds = injecting cash into the system QT is the exact opposite. Quantitative Tightening (QT) = selling bonds = taking cash out of the system. Between 2019 and 2022, the Fed went into turbo QE which pushed risk assets much higher. But then in 2022, FED began its QT process which sent the same assets sliding downwards. But here's the good news: The Fed has just signalled that they are STOPPING QT which is great news for risk assets.

It looks like spending 14 hours a day updating excel and listening to earnings calls doesn’t actually mean you will outperform the market after all, Mr Bond

@HangukQuant Closed by adl? bybit closed my short exactly in the same candle :)

@crossbordercap will be available at substack or not?

Latest report from CrossBorder Capital introduces a Global #liquidity weighted #Bitcoin basket (GLI-BB) Contact info@crossbordercapital.com

@bitcoindata21 it is also important to track the rate of growth if we mention previous cycles, because the speed of growth was decelerating back then , it was a signal

When something becomes popular it loses value (regardless its not useful as markets are forward looking during extremes). The global M2 overlay on bitcoin is going to become another portfolio wrecker. Sure it works fine for now... but the last 3 cycles bitcoin has peaked before M2 by an average of 22 weeks (5 months). See the chart shifting bitcoin forward 22 weeks. Fail to prepare - prepare to fail... because M2 wont be your saviour, unless you can time travel.

this cycle deserves a better class of criminal

Why working at a so-called “Pod Shop” can be a great job but may not necessarily be a great career.   “The hottest thing these days are so-called multi-strategy funds or "pod shops" that employ multiple distinct teams, each with a specific mandate, style and edge. In theory, with good risk management and internal capital allocation, this can produce robust results across many cycles.”   -  From The Odd Lots podcast By Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway   From 1997 to 2001 I worked at a sort of primordial pod shop focused on the energy markets, primarily power and natural gas. We had teams for each market and geographic region, and within those groups traders that were generally free to deploy whatever tools and techniques they liked and allowed to express their views with whatever products made sense if they remained consistently profitable within a strictly defined risk management framework.   It was a traderly paradise, and the firm was incredibly successful.   As the term pod shop was not yet in circulation, I referred to it as a cellular organization. Each trader was a cell. Traders that did well were given additional capital to deploy and resources to grow their business. Those who were not profitable exhausted their resources and were eventually asked to leave. The strong expand and the weak die off. Excellent trading management and strong risk managers ensured that the organism survived and thrived.   Fast forward to 2024 and many large multi-strategy hedge funds have fully adopted the pod shop structure. Pod shops, along with quantitative hedge funds and high-speed market making firms have become the preferred destinations for many elite university graduates and established mid-career producers. For individuals contemplating plugging into The Matrix it is important to understand why working at a so-called “Pod Shop” can be a great job but may not necessarily be a great career:   1.          A pod shop can offer the trader a plug-and-play solution for infrastructure, and the largest most sophisticated shops have leaned heavily into this as a differentiator and means of attracting the best possible talent. Novice traders are often shocked to learn exactly how much support they will need, and many high performers dreaming of independence have blanched at the costs (legal, compliance, facilities, technology, etc.) of setting up their own firm. A proper pod shop solves all of that. You tell them what you need, and it will be there. You pay for it out of your P&L.   2.          The elite pod shops have recognized the value of information resources and have built out large quantitative groups to support their hive of traders. This can be a tremendous advantage for individual traders who need a moderate amount of quantitative support, but not enough to justify the very high price tag of a full-time employee or data services.   Pods are cellular by design, and that has good and bad aspects:   3.          Large institutional desks usually encourage a degree of inter and intra-desk communication and collaboration, which can yield a much greater understanding of market space and can lead to interesting tools, techniques and ideas being cross-pollinated across traders. A pod shop can be an entirely different environment, and a group that is currently deploying a successful strategy may be completely unwilling to discuss it with outsiders who could, in theory, start doing the exact same thing.

Can we haz some unrealized gains tax with dat

Might be the most accurate piece of research ever published

@crypto_condom @ethena @binance Folk asking “why would you hold USDe instead of holding fiat on Binance and earning T-bills yield” 😁😁😁

Im not even joking. THIS is a nail in the coffin of @ethena. Why would you hodl USDe wen you could hodl fiat in @binance or $sDAI in your wallet without the centralized risk? The🍐trade? Long $BNB & short $ENA. Come at me.

@_Checkmatey_ BTC perp funding rate has nothing in common with cash-n-carry using ETF/CME. Funding rates are used only in crypto-native exchanges. Current CME annual basis is sitting around 10%, so you are wrong

The #Bitcoin futures cash-and-carry trade is very likely reaching the end of the juice left to squeeze. A few weeks ago, traders could lock in an almost risk-free 10% annualised premium by being long spot, short futures. Technically this is ~5% as you need capital on both sides. That is now down to 6% (3% technically), which is below the risk-free rate of cash equivalents.

Dude normal people couldn’t handle this. Last week my gf watched my portfolio for first time ever. And saw me lose and gain a house 10 times over in both directions. She’s like…is this what ur seeing every day? How do you not go crazy?…. Well… spoiler… I’m fucking retarded